可持续发展的绿色核算国际和世行经验-Sustainabi

1GreenAccountingforSustainableDevelopment可持续发展的绿色核算InternationalandWorldBankExperience国际和世行经验MagdaLoveiSectorManagerEnvironmentEastAsiaandPacificRegionTheWorldBank2Outline提纲1.Introduction前言2.Internationalexperience国际经验3.TheWorldBank’sAdjustedNetSavingsmethodology世行经过调整的净储蓄方法4.AdjustedNetSavingsinAsia亚洲经过调整的净储蓄5.Lookingahead未来发展31–Introduction前言Assetaccountingforsustainabledevelopment可持续发展的资产核算4Aconditionforsustainabledevelopment可持续发展的一个条件Society’srealwealthisnotdecliningovertime社会真正财富是不随时间而下降的Realwealthconsistsof真正财富包括：Producedassets生产的资产(buildings,machines,vehicles,etc.)accountedforintheNationalAccountsOtherassets其它资产(expandingthemeasureofwealth)NaturalresourcesHumancapitalSocialcapital5Empiricalevidence:Theimportanceofhumanandsocialcapitalascomponentofwealth实例：人力和社会资本在财富中的重要程度Sub-SaharanAfricaProducedassets23%Naturalcapital13%Humanresources64%SouthAmericaProducedassets17%Naturalcapital9%Humanresources74%MiddleEastProducedassets18%Naturalcapital39%Humanresources43%6Empiricalevidence:Largedifferenceinthecompositionofnaturalcapitalacrosscountries实例：自然资本各国差异很大Thecomponentsofnaturalcapital(1994)0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%HighUppermiddleLowermiddleLowMetal,mineral,energyProtectedareasNon-timberforestbenefitsTimberPasturelandAgriculturalcropland72–Internationalexperience国际经验Examplesofaccountingforassetdepreciation资产折旧核算案例8Capturingrentsfromnaturalresources–ExamplefromNorway获取自然资源的租金－挪威案例SignificantamountsofrentsgeneratedbyoilindustrybutwithhighfluctuationsForestsgeneratesubstantialrents–butrentsaccruetoprivatesector(whichisalsosubsidized)Oilandgas–Resourcerentsandtaxes(1985-1996)Forestry–Resourcerentsandtaxes(1985-1995)9Assessingthe“cost”ofequity–ExamplefromNorway净资产的费用评估－挪威案例Fisheries–Resourcerentsandsubsidies(1985-1995)Norwaychosetosupportsmallscalefisheriestopromoteregionaldevelopment•Fisheriesdonotproducepositiverents•Norevenuecollection•Highlysubsidizedindustry10Reinvestingrentsintootherformsofcapital–ExamplefromBotswana把租金再投向其他形式的资本－波斯瓦那案例Mineralrevenuesare35%ofGDP矿产收入占GDP的35％Governmenthasdeveloped“SustainableBudgetIndex“(SBI)政府开发了可持续预算指数SBImeasureshowmuchofthemineralrevenuesareconvertedtootherformsofassets(includingexpendituresoneducationandhealth)Governmentguideline:norevenuefromminingshouldbeusedforcurrentexpenditure113–TheWorldBank’sAdjustedNetSavings(ANS)Methodology世行经过调整的净储蓄方法Anindicatorforsustainability一个衡量可行性的指标12Adjustednetsavings(ANS)经过调整的净储蓄ANSmeasuresthe‘changeintotalwealth’overtimeSignandmagnitudeofANSarekeyindicatorsofsustainabilityDecompositionofANSenablesidentificationofpolicyrecommendationsNegativeANS(i.e.declineoftotalwealth)callsfor:ImprovefiscalandmonetarypolicyInvestmoreinhumancapitalChangepoliciesandencourageoverexploitationofnaturalresourcesImprovepoliciesthatencouragebetterpollutionmanagement13Adjustednetsavings经过调整的净储蓄%ofGNI2002占国民总收入的百分比2002NameGrossnationalsavingsConsumptionoffixedcapitalNetnationalsavingsEducationexpenditureEnergydepletionMineraldepletionNetforestdepletionCO2damagePM10damageAdustedNetSavingsEastAsia&Pacific38.89.229.62.23.40.30.11.80.825.5Europe&CentralAsia22.710.512.24.89.70.1..2.10.6..Highincome17.413.14.35.00.70.0..0.30.3..LatinAmerica&Caribbean19.310.39.04.25.20.60.00.50.56.3Lowincome21.58.413.12.65.90.40.81.30.66.7Lowermiddleincome30.89.920.93.26.60.30.11.70.714.6MiddleEast&NorthAfrica23.410.013.45.226.30.10.01.30.9-10.0SouthAsia23.19.014.02.92.20.31.01.50.711.3Sub-SaharanAfrica15.910.25.85.18.10.50.71.10.40.0Uppermiddleincome21.410.610.85.09.70.20.00.70.64.5World19.512.57.04.71.90.10.00.50.38.814Empiricalevidence实例LowincomecountrieshavethelowestANSLowerincomelowersavingsLowerincomehigherdependenceonnaturalresourcesEastAsiaandpacifichavethehighestANS(becauseofveryhighgrossnationalsaving)MiddleEastandNorthAfricahavethelowestANS(becauseofoilextraction)15Implicationsforsustainabilityacrossregions可持续性的区域比较256-10110-40-30-20-10010203040EastAsia&PacificLatinAmerica&CaribbeanMiddleEast&NorthAfricaSouthAsiaSub-SaharanAfricaEducationExpenditureNetNationalSavingsPM10damageNetforestdepletionMineralDepletionEnergyDepletionCO2damageANSMiddleEastandAfricaareonanunsustainablepath–LatinAmericahaslowsavingsrates–EastAsiabenefitsfromhighNationalSavings(2002)16Starkdifferencesbetweentraditionalandadjustednetsavings传统和调整后的净储蓄的差异-20-10010203019801985199019952000AdjustedNetSavingNetNationalSavingGrossNationalSaving%GNISub-SaharanAfrica-AdjustedNetSavingrevealsadifferentstoryfromtraditionalmeasuresofsaving174–AdjustednetsavingsinAsia亚洲调整后的净储蓄Evidenceandresearchneeds18Comparinggrossandadjustednetsavings储蓄总量和调整后的净储蓄比较Resource-richcountrieshavethehighestgap05101520253035404550NewZealandIndonesiaAustraliaPhilippinesKorea,Rep.MongoliaHongKong,ChinaMalaysiaChinaGrossNationalSavings(2002)AdjustedNetSavings(2002)19Indonesia–naturalresourcesexploitationhasincreasedwiththecrisis印度尼西亚－自然资源的开发已经增加危机AdjustedNetSavings,Indonesia1981-20020.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%40.0%1981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002Gros