JP摩根并购企业估值培训材料-DCF估值

DECEMBER2004M&A:DCFANDMERGERANALYSISSTRICTLYPRIVATEANDCONFIDENTIALM&A-DCFandM&Aanalysis[Foranypitchbookorpresentationincludingadvisory,equityordebtsecurityorloanproductorcombinationsthereof.NOTforuseinfairness/valuationorCommercialBankpresentations.]ThispresentationwaspreparedexclusivelyforthebenefitandinternaluseoftheJPMorganclienttowhomitisdirectlyaddressedanddelivered(includingsuchclient’ssubsidiaries,the“Company”)inordertoassisttheCompanyinevaluating,onapreliminarybasis,thefeasibilityofapossibletransactionortransactionsanddoesnotcarryanyrightofpublicationordisclosure,inwholeorinpart,toanyotherparty.Thispresentationisfordiscussionpurposesonlyandisincompletewithoutreferenceto,andshouldbeviewedsolelyinconjunctionwith,theoralbriefingprovidedbyJPMorgan.NeitherthispresentationnoranyofitscontentsmaybedisclosedorusedforanyotherpurposewithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofJPMorgan.Theinformationinthispresentationisbaseduponanymanagementforecastssuppliedtousandreflectsprevailingconditionsandourviewsasofthisdate,allofwhichareaccordinglysubjecttochange.JPMorgan’sopinionsandestimatesconstituteJPMorgan’sjudgmentandshouldberegardedasindicative,preliminaryandforillustrativepurposesonly.Inpreparingthispresentation,wehaverelieduponandassumed,withoutindependentverification,theaccuracyandcompletenessofallinformationavailablefrompublicsourcesorwhichwasprovidedtousbyoronbehalfoftheCompanyorwhichwasotherwisereviewedbyus.Inaddition,ouranalysesarenotanddonotpurporttobeappraisalsoftheassets,stock,orbusinessoftheCompanyoranyotherentity.JPMorganmakesnorepresentationsastotheactualvaluewhichmaybereceivedinconnectionwithatransactionnorthelegal,taxoraccountingeffectsofconsummatingatransaction.Unlessexpresslycontemplatedhereby,theinformationinthispresentationdoesnottakeintoaccounttheeffectsofapossibletransactionortransactionsinvolvinganactualorpotentialchangeofcontrol,whichmayhavesignificantvaluationandothereffects.Notwithstandinganythinghereintothecontrary,theCompanyandeachofitsemployees,representativesorotheragentsmaydisclosetoanyandallpersons,withoutlimitationofanykind,theU.S.federalandstateincometaxtreatmentandtheU.S.federalandstateincometaxstructureofthetransactionscontemplatedherebyandallmaterialsofanykind(includingopinionsorothertaxanalyses)thatareprovidedtotheCompanyrelatingtosuchtaxtreatmentandtaxstructureinsofarassuchtreatmentand/orstructurerelatestoaU.S.federalorstateincometaxstrategyprovidedtotheCompanybyJPMorgan.JPMorgan’spoliciesprohibitemployeesfromoffering,directlyorindirectly,afavorableresearchratingorspecificpricetarget,orofferingtochangearatingorpricetarget,toasubjectcompanyasconsiderationorinducementforthereceiptofbusinessorforcompensation.JPMorganalsoprohibitsitsresearchanalystsfrombeingcompensatedforinvolvementininvestmentbankingtransactionsexcepttotheextentthatsuchparticipationisintendedtobenefitinvestors.JPMorganisamarketingnameforinvestmentbankingbusinessesofJPMorganChase&Co.anditssubsidiariesworldwide.Securities,syndicatedloanarranging,financialadvisoryandotherinvestmentbankingactivitiesareperformedbyacombinationofJ.P.MorganSecuritiesInc.,J.P.Morganplc,J.P.MorganSecuritiesLtd.andtheappropriatelylicensedsubsidiariesofJPMorganChase&Co.inAsia-Pacific,andlending,derivativesandothercommercialbankingactivitiesareperformedbyJPMorganChaseBank,N.A.JPMorgandealteammembersmaybeemployeesofanyoftheforegoingentities.ThispresentationdoesnotconstituteacommitmentbyanyJPMorganentitytounderwrite,subscribefororplaceanysecuritiesortoextendorarrangecreditortoprovideanyotherservices.M&A:DCFANDMERGERANALYSISAgendaPageM&A-DCFandM&AanalysisMergerconsequencesRelativevalueanalysisDiscountedcashflowanalysisIntroduction1165671M&A:DCFANDMERGERANALYSISM&A-DCFandM&AanalysisValuationmethodologiesPubliclytradedcomparablecompaniesanalysisComparabletransactionsanalysisDiscountedcashflowanalysisLeveragedbuyout/recapanalysisOther„“PublicMarketValuation”„Valuebasedonmarkettradingmultiplesofcomparablecompanies„Appliedusinghistoricalandprospectivemultiples„Doesnotincludeacontrolpremium„“PrivateMarketValuation”„Valuebasedonmultiplespaidforcomparablecompaniesinsaletransactions„Includescontrolpremium„“Intrinsic”valueofbusiness„Presentvalueofprojectedfreecashflows„Incorporatesbothshort-termandlong-termexpectedperformance„Riskincashflowsandcapitalstructurecapturedindiscountrate„Valuetoafinancial/LBObuyer„Valuebasedondebtrepaymentandreturnonequityinvestment„Liquidationanalysis„Break-upanalysis„Historicaltradingperformance„ExpectedIPOvaluation„Discountedfutureshareprice„EPSimpact„DividenddiscountmodelValuationmethodologies2INTRODUCTIONM&A-DCFandM&AanalysisThevaluationprocessDeterminingafinalvaluationrecommendationisaprocessoftriangulationusinginsightfromeachoftherelevantvaluationmethodologies(3)ComparableAcquisitionTransactionsUtilizesdatafromM&Atransactionsinvolvingsimilarcompanies.(2)PubliclyTradedComparableCompaniesUtilizesmarkettradingmultiplesfrompubliclytradedcompaniestoderivevalue.(4)LeveragedBuyOutUsedtodeterminerangeofpotentialvalueforacompanybasedonmaximu