科学地研究全球暖化对中国水资源和粮食生产的影响-与朴世龙教授等商榷

2011，29（32）0，[1]。，，，。。，，。，。，，、，———1，1,21.，605172.，53141：2011-05-23；：2011-10-08：，，，：[e-mail]；（），，、、，：[e-mail]201092Nature“TheimpactsofclimatechangeonwaterresourcesandagricultureinChina”，，。，。。；；P339，S162.5Adoi10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2011.32.012HowtoEvaluatetheImpactsofClimateChangeonWaterResourcesandAgricultureinChinaScientificallyZENGZuotao1,WANGXun1,21.SocietyofChineseAmericanProfessorsandScientists,Richwood60517,Illinois,USA2.UniversityofWisconsin-Parkside,Kenosha53141,Wisconsin,USAAbstractThepaperTheimpactsofclimatechangeonwaterresourcesandagricultureinChina(Nature43,43-51,2010)failstofollowscientificmethodsbyselectingone-sideddatasetsandresearchresultstosupporttheirargumentthatthewarminghasasignificantnegativeimpactonwaterresourcesandagriculture.Thisone-sidedpaperisnotonlyadisservicetotheacademiccommunity,butalsohasgeneratedunnecessarypanicresponsesfrompublicthatChinawillnotbeabletofeeditspeoplesincewarmertemperaturesinChinawillreducecropyieldssignificantly.ThepurposeofthispaperistoclarifysomeofthebasicfactsaboutthetrueimpactsofthewarmingonwaterresourcesandagricultureinChinaanddiscusssomerelevantmethodologicalissues.Keywordsglobalwarming;waterresource;cropyields（Perspectives）712011，29（32）。？13，。，。201092Nature“Theimpactsofclimatechangeonwaterresourcesandagricul-tureinChina”[2]，，，2060。。，。1，，。[2]，。，，。[3]520，，30。，，。，1960—2000。1（a），1960[2,4]，2003[5]。；30，2003；（1997—2003）80，1997—200380。1（b）1485—2005520，，1960—2003，，，。，，。Miao[6]1470。，，。，6000—3500，2—4℃，。，，，。，，，，。。，，，3m。，“”。，，，，。。，。，，，，，。，，，。，，，，。，1987，11920—2010（a）520（b）Fig.1RunoffoftheYellowRiverfrom1920to2010(a)andrunoffoftheYellowRiverduringfloodseasonfrom1485to2005(b)：1（a）[2]—[5]，1（b）[3]。Notes:DataofFigure1(a)arefromreferences2to5,thedataFigure1(b)fromreference3.（a）（b）（Perspectives）722011，29（32）0.7℃，22%[7]。，2100，2.7℃，25%[7]。，，0.5—1.6℃，，[8]。，，，。2，，。，You[9]20091，You1979—2000，4.5%，You，，20051，2.4％[10]。4，，1，（reliability）。。，20—25℃[11-12]，You200912.09℃。，，，。，Nature，30%—50%[13]，。You，。，，，，。，-，--，[14-15]。，，，[16]。，。Tao[17]2008，1979—2002，8。，Tao14（64％，2/3），。。，。，209032.78％[18]。，19601.2℃，、90%，240%150%，，，。，“”。，。，3%—22%，8%—18%，9%—30%。。，，，。0.038%，。，40%130%。，，，，。，，，13%，，，，。，Nature，，[19]，。3，，、。。，。，6。，，，。。，，（Perspectives）732011，29（32），，，，，[8]。。，，。，。，，，？。，，。，，30—35℃[12]，20℃，，22—26℃。，？，。———，，，？。，，，[15]。，，3，，，，？。4，IPCC，，。，。，，。，。，，，。，。，，，，。，，。1/3，，。G.Shackman、R.Mason。（References）[1]SingerSF.Nature,nothumanactivity,rulestheclimate[R].Chicago:TheHeartlanInstitute,2008.[2]PiaoS,CiaisP,HuangY,etal.TheimpactsofclimatechangeonwaterresourcesandagricultureinChina[J].Nature,2010,467:43-51.[3],,,.520[J].,2009,31(10):71-73.WangJinhua,SuFuyan,KangLingling,etal.YellowRiver,2009,31(10):71-73.[4].[J].,2005,48(6):1270-1275.MaZhuguo.ChineseJournalofGeophysics,2005,48(6):1270-1275.[5].[OL].[2011-01-05].[OL].[2011-01-05].[6]MiaoCY,NiJR.Variationofnaturalstreamflowsince1470inthemiddleYellowRiver,China[J].IntJEnvironResPublicHealth,2009,6:2849-2864.[7]ShiYF,ShenYP,KangES,etal.RecentandfutureclimatechangeinnorthwestChina[J].ClimaticChange,2007,80(3-4):379-393.[8],,,.“”-[J]..2004,24(6):701-708.ZhangYun,KongZhaochen,YanShun,etal.QuaternarySciences,2004,24(6):701-708.[9]YouL,RosegrantMW,WoodS,etal.Impactofgrowingseasontemper-atureonwheatproductivityinChina[J].AgriculturalandForestMeteo-rology,2009,149(6-7):1009-1014.[10]YouL,RosegrantMW,FangC,etal.ImpactofglobalwarmingonChinesewheatproductivity[R].Washington,DC:InternationalFoodPolicyResearchInstitute,2005.[11]LiL,McMasterGS,YuQ,etal.Simulatingwinterwheatdevelopmentresponsetotemperature:ModifyingMalo'sexponentialsineequation[J].ComputersandElectronicsinAgriculture,2008,63(2):274-281.[12]NagaiT,MakinoA.Differencesbetweenriceandwheatintemperatureresponsesofphotosynthesisandplantgrowth[J].PlantCellPhysiol,2009,50(4):744-755.（Perspectives）742011，29（32）[13]NichallsN.IncreasedAustralianwheatyieldduetorecentclimatetrends[J].Nature,1997,387:484-485.[14],,.I.[J].,2010,43(2):329-336.YangXiaoguang,LiuZhijuan,ChenFu.SciAgriSinica,2010,43(2):329-336.[15],,,.II.[J].,2010,43(9):1860-1867.ZhaoJin,YangXiaoguang,LiuZhijuan,etal.SciAgriSinica,2010,43(9):1860-1867.[16],,,.[J].,2011,19(1):193-196.ZhangZhengbin,ChenZhaobo,SunChuanfan,etal.ChineseJEco-Agri,2011,19(1):193-196.[17]TaoFL,YokozawaM,LiuJY,etal.Climate-cropyieldrelationshipsatprovincialscalesinChinaandtheimpactsofrecentclimatetrends[J].ClimRes,2008,38:83-94.[18],,,.40[J].,2007,21(9):112-117.WangZongming,SongKaishan,LiXiaoyan,etal.JAridLandResEnv,2007,21(9):112-117.[19]ReutersarticleaboutfoodproductioninChina[OL].[2010-09-01].（）“IEEEICEICE2012”IEEE“IEEEICEICE2012”201246—8。/T。20111115。027-8755861718627055052。[e-mail]@gmail.com。1037430074。。··（Perspectives）75