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FDI冼国明严兵*本文利用1998~2003年省际层面的相关数据,对外资在中国创新能力方面的溢出效应进行了初步分析经验结果表明,外资对中国的专利申请数量有显著的正面溢出效应,但这种溢出效应主要体现在一些小型的创新项目上,如外观设计专利对东中西部地区的进一步分析表明,中国中西部地区的经济发展水平还未跨越促使外资产生显著正面溢出效应的发展门槛总体而言,外资在东部地区产生的溢出效应相对较强外商直接投资溢出效应创新能力1993,11,?,?,,FDICaves(1974),1969,,,FDI,Globerman(1979),BlomstromPersson(1983)Blomstrom(1986),Liu(2000),Kokko(1996),DimelisLouri(2002)FDIHaddadHarrison(1993),,,AitkenHarrison(1999),18102005**:300071:022-89694172:bennyyan@eyou.com,03JZD0019,,,,(1998)199539,FDI(2000)199629,FDIGDP1,0.37,(2002)(2003)FDI(2003),,(2003),,,FDI,Jefferson(2001)Jefferson,,,,,,FDI,,,,,:I=f(L,K,PGDP,FDI)(1),LK,I,:,,,;,,FDI,FDI,,,,GDP,(1),(2),,lnIit=+lnLit+lnKit+lnPGDPit+lnFDIit+(2)FDI,FDI,,,,FDI,,FDI(,2000;,2003),,19102005*冼国明严兵,,,,K,L(L1)(L2),1998~2004(),,,29,174,(paneldata),,,Hendry,F,FF=(R2u-R2p)/(n-1)(1-R2u)/(nT-n-K)~F(n-1,nT-n-K)(3)R2u(),R2p(),FF(n-1,nT-n-K),,,,:(FixedEffectsModel),(RandomEffectsModel)Hausman(Hausman,1978):H=2[K]=[b-]-1[b-](4)b,,=Var[b]-Var[],H(Ch-isquared),|H|,,,,(),GDP,,,,,,,,,,GDP,1:20102005*FDI,,,,i=0+i,i1L1L2K12.74(16.82)**2.09(2.86)**-1.12(-1.27)GDP0.05(0.62)0.27(1.31)1.46(10.30)**R20.0020.050.38D.W.0.270.300.41:**1%,,,,,,GDP,GDP,,2L1KGDPFDIL2KGDPFDIL11.0000.6810.0470.463L21.0000.7160.2450.481K0.6811.0000.6180.575K0.7161.0000.6180.575GDP0.0470.6181.0000.607GDP0.4630.5750.6071.000FDI0.2450.6181.0000.607FDI0.4810.5750.6071.000,GDP,,2,,,,,,,,,:lnIit=+lnLit+lnPGDPit+lnFDIit+(5)()3FDIF19.959.3815.5713.74F27.986.7111.9813.93:F1F2LFDI,,(3),5%,F,,Hausman,421102005*冼国明严兵,,i4FDI(N=174)L(FE)(RE)(RE)(RE)L(FE)(RE)(RE)(RE)-16.24-13.25-10.96-7.18-7.02-7.16(-8.66)**(-7.78)**(-3.65)**(-6.96)**(-7.92)**(-4.16)**LnL0.710.850.790.450.810.901.000.52(6.16)**(9.68)**(7.38)**(2.92)**(7.38)**(10.97)**(10.30)**(2.77)**LnPGDP1.251.261.041.041.151.041.041.03(9.63)**(8.82)**(9.73)**(5.23)**(9.34)**(8.49)**(10.24)**(5.26)**LnFDI0.170.010.130.390.160.020.090.38(2.49)*(0.18)(2.18)*(3.78)**(2.58)*(0.39)(1.69)(3.68)**R20.970.920.980.950.970.910.980.95D.W.1.711.291.301.411.621.671.461.35261.1210.22#8.76#8.21#41.7511.34#9.20#10.65#:t,***1%5%#1%Hausman,,REFEFDI,FDI,FDI1%,0.16%~0.17%,FDI,FDI,FDI,0.38~0.39,,,,,GDP,1%,,GDPFDI,,,FDI,,,,,,,(5)Hausman,(67)5F19.465.6610.7218.3416.5611.2914.5916.0811.429.5420.298.18F27.062.839.6318.2025.768.5914.2118.0911.518.1116.139.82,FDI,,FDI0.4122102005*FDI0.38,5%,,FDI,t;,FDI,,FDI,10%,0.270.22;,FDI,0.790.726(L)(N=66)(RE)(RE)(FE)(FE)(N=48)(RE)(RE)(FE)(FE)(N=60)(RE)(RE)(FE)(FE)-13.27-28.51-8.25-20.88-10.38-12.85-17.87-10.09-15.93(-3.37)**(-5.03)**(-2.39)*(-7.41)**(-2.80)**(-4.37)**(-4.79)**(-3.91)**(-2.93)*LnL0.500.710.820.210.300.890.540.860.840.930.780.84(2.26)*(2.35)*(4.67)**(2.68)**(2.14)*(5.62)**(2.23)*(3.69)**(4.19)**(3.76)**(4.24)**(2.31)*LnPGDP1.321.811.261.091.381.611.090.490.941.240.661.03(4.73)**(6.80)**(5.81)**(2.85)*(10.08)**(8.52)**(8.40)**(2.96)**(5.35)**(5.38)**(4.56)**(3.09)*LnFDI0.41-0.080.270.790.01-0.06-0.010.130.210.170.190.46(2.52)*(-0.35)(2.08)*(10.29)**(0.09)(-0.69)(-0.21)(2.12)*(1.20)(1.19)(0.90)(2.17)*R20.960.890.980.940.960.940.970.870.960.900.970.89D.W.1.611.421.731.391.231.581.761.501.201.391.431.24210.76#8.93#11.4915.1210.11#9.82#19.025.43#5.12#11.04#9.33#5.98#:t,***1%5%,#1%Hausman,,REFE7(L)(N=66)(RE)(RE)(FE)(FE)(N=48)(RE)(RE)(FE)(FE)(N=60)(RE)(RE)(FE)(FE)-8.66-20.44-9.97-6.99-11.76-2.14-5.62-8.19-3.91-9.35(-3.98)**(-7.15)**(-5.91)**(-4.16)**(-6.43)**(-2.91)**(-3.83)**(-4.04)*(-3.43)**(-3.16)**LnL0.630.931.000.300.480.900.590.710.860.730.890.92(3.12)**(3.95)*(6.10)**(2.33)*(2.76)**(4.66)**(2.29)*(2.84)**(4.74)**(3.17)**(5.92)**(2.55)*LnPGDP1.251.541.231.111.431.581.150.450.931.110.681.09(4.88)**(7.60)**(6.20)**(2.81)*(10.74)**(7.81)**(9.05)**(2.73)*(5.55)**(4.78)**(5.23)**(3.22)**LnFDI0.38-0.160.220.720.01-0.010.010.200.280.270.200.44(2.58)*(-0.88)(1.88)(7.72)**(0.11)(-0.05)(0.15)(2.64)*(1.67)(1.39)(1.44)(2.14)*R20.950.870.980.940.960.920.970.880.960.880.980.90D.W.1.511.491.421.621.781.421.471.451.221.611.291.2529.16#8.34#10.74#16.845.27#4.03#16.033.33#7.82#10.84#4.76#7.19#:t,***1%5%,#1%Hausman,,REFE,FDI,,FDI,FDI,,FDI,,FDI,FDI0.130.20,23102005*冼国明严兵0.460.44,FDIGDP,:,,,,,FDI,,,,2003,74.31%,14.72%10.97%,,2003,,86%,14%,,,,,,FDI(2000),,,,,:,,,;,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,60%,,,,,,,:,,,;,,,,,,,24102005*FDI,,,,,,,,:(2000):,12(2003)::,6(1998):,4(2000):,3(2003):?,4(2003):,1(2002):,6Aitken,B.andHarrison,A.DoDomesticFirmsBenefitfromForeignDirectInvestment?EvidencefromVenezuela.AmericanEconomicRe-view89,1999,pp.605-618.Blomstrom,M.andPersson,H.ForeignDirectInvestmentandSpilloverEfficiencyinanUnderdevelopedEconomy:EvidencefromtheMex-icanManufacturingIndustry.WorldDevelopment11,1983,pp.493-501.Blomstrom,M.ForeignInvestmentandProductiveEfficiency:ThecaseofMexico.JournalofIndustrialEconomics15,1986,pp.97-110.Caves,R.E.MultinationalFirms,CompetitionandProductivityinHost-countryMarkets.Economica41,1974,pp.176-193.Dimelis,S.andLour,iH.ForeignOwnershipandProductionEfficiency:AQuantileRegressionAnalysis.OxfordEconomicPapers(forth-coming),2002.Globerman,S.ForeignDirectInvestmentandSpillover'EfficiencyBenefitsinCanadia