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北方民族大学学士学位论文论文题目:中国人口增长预测模型院(部)名称:信息与计算科学学院学生姓名:赖银波专业:数学与应用数学学号:20040291指导教师姓名:高义讲师论文提交时间:2008年5月26日论文答辩时间:2008年5月30日学位授予时间:北方民族大学教务处制I中国人口增长预测模型摘要本课题来源于2007年全国大学生数学建模竞赛甲组A题，本文以中国人口发展为研究对象，首先综合分析题目提供的信息讨论了已有的一些预测方法及其适用的范围和优缺点，然后结合我国人口发展现状和题目提供的数据表确立了以2000年人口普查数据为基础数据、以大学生数学建模提供的2001年到2005年的各分量数据为预测指导方向、以2006年和2007年的公报数据为结果检验参照数据的整体建模思想，并在建模过程中提出了人口年龄推移算法，即通过上一年年末市镇乡男女各年龄人口数量、育龄妇女生育率和人口死亡率，计算出本年的出生人口数和死亡人口数，并结合2001年到2005年市镇乡人口比拟合出未来人口迁移变化式，在此基础上根据上一年年末人口总数加上当年出生人口数和迁进人口数，减去当年死亡人口数和迁出人口数，获得本年年末人口数量．依次进行推移，对未来30年中国人口进行预测．预测结果显示在未来30年中国人口规模将保持增长的趋势，2010年为13.4亿，2020年为13.9亿，并在2034年达到峰值14.2亿，中国人口实现零增长.在此期间人口自然增长率持续平稳下降，妇女生育保持稳定的低水平，死亡率保持较低水平，人口抚养比持续下降，城镇化水平进一步提高，人口年龄结构继续向老年型人口转变.文章最后结合预测结果提出了我国未来应继续坚持贯彻实施计划生育政策和加强关注农村老年人口等人口政策的建议．关键词：中国人口数学模型人口预测人口政策IITheModelofChinesePopulationGrowthPredictionAbstractThesubjectstemsfromtheproblemAofthe2007thChinaundergraduatemathematicalcontestinmodeling(CUMCM).Firstly,thepaperdiscussesseveralpredictionmethodsandtheiradvantagesanddisadvantages.Secondly,basedonthecensusdatain2000,analyzedthedataprovidedbyCUMCM-2007,testedbythedatafromtheBOof2006and2007,combineddevelopmentofChinesepopulation,thepaperstatesthemodelofChinesepopulationgrowthprediction,givesanalgorithmofageprocessofChinesepopulation,thatistosay,bythepopulationofmalesandfemalesatallagescomingfromcities,townsandvillageslastyear,calculatethisyear’spopulationwasbornandpopulationwasdied,thenintegratethepopulationofcities,townsandvillagesbetween2001and2005toadduptoacomparablemovementofpopulationinthefuture.Onthisbasis,accordingtothetotalpopulationintheendoflastyearwithpopulationwasbornandpopulationmoved-out,thengetthenumberofthisyear’spopulation.Thirdly,usedbythemodel,thepaperpredictsChinesepopulationinthenext30yearsandanalyzestheresults.TheresultsdemonstratethatChinesepopulationwillmaintainthescaleofgrowthtrendinthenext30years,itisto1.34billionin2010,to1.39billionin2020andreachesitspeak1.42billionin2034,andbeginstoachievezerogrowth.Duringthisperiod,thenaturalpopulationgrowthratemaintainssteadydecline,women'sfertilitymaintainsastablelow-level,themortalitymaintainsarelativelylowlevel,thepopulationdependencyratiocontinuestodrop,thelevelofurbanizationfurtherimproves,theagestructureofpopulationcontinuestochangetotheoneoftheelderly.Finally,combinedtheresults,thepapergivesproposalsthatthefamilyplanningpolicyshouldcontinuetobeheldonandtheconcernoftheelderlyinruralareasshouldcontinuetobestrengthenedinthefuture.Keywords:Chinesepopulation，mathematicalmodel，populationprediction，populationpolicyIII目录第一章常用的人口预测方法························································································11.1引言···················································································································11.2常用的人口预测方法··························································································1第二章人口年龄推移预测模型····················································································52.1问题分析············································································································52.2基础数据的修订·································································································52.3模型的建立······································································································112.4数据结果及其检验····························································································12第三章中国未来人口变化·························································································133.1主要数据分析···································································································133.2未来人口政策取向····························································································16第四章总结···············································································································18致谢··························································································································19主要参考文献和资料····································································································19附录A主要数据图表·································································································21附录B程序代码及其说明··························································································24中国人口增长预测模型1第一章常用的人口预测方法1.1引言中国是世界上人口最多的发展中国家．人口多，底子薄，人均耕地少，人均占有资源相对不足，是我国的基本国情，人口问题一直是制约中国经济发展的首要因素．中国政府自1980年在全国城乡实行计划生育基本国策以来成果卓著,据国家计生委“计划生育投入与效益研究”课题组的研究成果,20年共少生2.15亿个孩子．若从70年代算起,至今至少少生3亿人,有效地控制了人口的快速增长,为中国现代化建设、全面实现小康打下坚实的基础,同时也为世界人口的增长和控制做出了杰出贡献．但是由于中国人口基数大,人口增长问题依然十分严峻，仍然对我国社会、环境、资源和经济产生巨大的压力．跨入21世纪我们仍然要面对新的人口问题,人口已由增长型向稳定型过渡,人口结构不再是金字塔型,至少应该是畸形金字塔[6]．这样的人口结构将会给社会带来各种负面影响,例如少儿抚养比、失业问题、负担系数、老龄化问题．因此,在未来人口发展政策及人口预测中,考虑到人口结构问题至关重要；同时,资源日益匮乏,人口总数的增加也使得我们不得不关心人口总数将如何发展．在我国现代化进程中,必须实现人口与经济、社会、资源、环境协调发展和可持续发展,进一步控制人口数量,提高人口质量,改善人口结构．因此,准确预测未来30年人口数量及其增长,可以为中国经济和社会发展决策提供科学依据,对于加速推进我国现代化建设有着极为重要的现实意义．1.2常用的人口预测方法认识人口数量的变化规律，建立人口模型，做出较准确的预报，是有效控制人口增长的前提．长期以来许多学者在这方面作了不少的工作，提出了丰富的方法和模型，以下是其中几种比较典型的人口预测模型和方法：1.2.1人口算术增长模型[4]人口增长每年按一