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MarketTransformationMechanismandDevelopmentTrendofHigh-EfficiencyAir-ConditionerandHeat-pumpWaterHeaterinUSAStevenNadel,ExecutiveDirectorAmericanCouncilforanEnergy-EfficientEconomyJune2010LevelizedUtilityCostofElectricityResources0246810121416EnergyEfficiencyWindBiomassNatural GasCombinedCyclePulverizedCoalNuclearCoal IGCCRange of Levelized Costs (cents per kWh)Note: The green bars represent the lower end while the blue bars reflect the upper end of costs.average=2.5¢---------------Sources:ACEEE2009forEE,Lazard2008forothersMcKinseyGlobal’sAnalysisofCarbonReductionPotentialMarketTransformation“[astrategiceffort]byutilityandotherorganizationstointerveneinthemarket,causingbeneficial,lastingchangesinthestructureorfunctionofthemarket…,leadingtoincreasesintheadoptionofenergy-efficientproducts,servicesand/orpractices”(Schlegeletal.1997)MarketTransformationInitiatives•Designedtounderstandandaddressmarketbarriers•Employmultiplecoordinatedactivities•Generallymultipleorganisations•Activitiesevolveasthemarketdevelopmentofameasureprogresses(evaluationskey)•IncludetransitionplanorexitstrategyDiffusionCurveMarketShareTimeR&DTesting&Rating,CommercializationIncentives,BulkProcurementUtilityRebatesLabelingEducationFinancingCodes&StandardsMarketTransformationforHighEfficiencyClothesWashersinNewEnglandBulkProcurement•“GoldenCarrot”refrigeratorprogram•$30millionprizeformostefficientmass-producedrefrigerator•Providedbygroupofutilities•Incentivepaidperrefrigeratorsold•“LPrize”•$10millionprizeforascrew-inLEDmeetingperformancespecifications•PaidbyfederalgovernmentIncentives•ConsortiumforEnergyEfficiency•Utilitiesandstatesdevelopcommonqualifyinglevelsforincentives•Commonlyseveraltiers•Uppertiersoftenforequipmentnotyetmass-produced•Federaltaxincentivesforadvancedenergy-savingequipmentConsortiumforEnergyEfficiencyResidentialACandHPSpecificationsFederalTaxIncentives•Currently30%ofcostupto$1500•Eligibleequipmentincludes:•CentralACatleastSEER15•FurnacewithAFUEof95%•Heatpumpelectricwaterheater•GaswaterheaterwithEF0.80U.S.ElectricandGasUtilityBudgetsforEnergyEfficiency&LoadManagementSource:ConsortiumforEnergyEfficiencyEnergyStar•EPA/DOEprogram•Typicallyrecognizesmostefficient25-35%ofequipment•Startingtodevelopahighertier(“superstar”?)torecognizethetop5-10%•Periodicallyupdated•Nowusedfor~50productsApplianceStandardsintheU.S.NAECA1987EPAct1992EPAct2005EISA2007Refrigerator-freezersFluorescentlampsCeilingfanlightkitsIncandescentlampsFreezersIncandescentreflectorlampsDehumidifiersAdditionalmotors(e.g.large)RoomairconditionersElectricmotors(1-200hp)CompactfluorescentlampsWalk-incoolersandfreezersCentralAC&heatpumpsCommercialAC&HPTorchierelightingfixturesMetalhalidelightingfixturesFurnaces&boilersComm'lfurnaces/boilersLargecomm'lAC&HPExternalpowersuppliesWaterheatersComm'lwaterheatersComm'lclotheswashersFurnacefans*ClotheswashersShowerheadsDistributiontransformersClothesdryersFaucetaeratorsExitsignsACES/ACELA2010(pending)DishwashersToiletsComm'licemakersRanges&ovensSmallelectricmotors*Comm'lrefrigerators/freezersPortablelightingfixturesDirect-firedspaceheatersMercuryvaporlampballastsOutdoorlightingfixturesPoolheatersTrafficsignalsCommercialfurnacesFluorescentlampballastsPre-rinsesprayvalvesDrinkingwaterdispensersComm'lunitheatersPortableelectricspasBatterychargers*HotfoodholdingcabinetsLargecomm'lrefrigeration*DOErulemakings.Onlyincluderulemakingsthatareunderwayorcompleted.ImpactofU.S.RefrigeratorEfficiencyStandardsMaybe25%savingswithnextrevisionBuildingCodesforNewConstruction•Itismuchlessexpensivetobuildnewbuildingstobeefficientthantobuildinefficientlyandhavetoimprovelater•Buildingcodescanmandatethatefficiencyfeaturesbeincorporated•Bothresidentialandcommercial•Canrequire:•Insulation,efficientwindows•Efficientlighting,heating,cooling,waterheatingandventilationCommercialBuildingCodesinU.S.(~%savingsrelativetopriorcode)0%5%10%15%20%25%30%1989199920042010Long-termTypicalU.S.ResidentialAir-ConditionersandWaterHeatersAverageEfficiencyofU.S.ResidentialCentralAirConditionersProposedNewU.S.ACStandards(takeeffect2015)AC-HP-FurnaceAgreementMapIDAZUTMTWYNMCOSCKYINOHNCSDKSNEMNWIIAILMOARNDORCANVWAPAMEVANYCTWVDEMDNJVTNHMARILAMIOKTXTNGAALMSFLAlaskaHDD≥5000HawaiiPuertoRicoU.S.Territories}HDD5000SouthwestNorth-HDD≥5000South-HDD5000SEER13SEER14SEER14+EERU.S.ResidentialACTrends•SEER15becomingmorecommonduetofederaltaxincentives•NewminimumefficiencystandardwillbecomeSEER14inthesouth•InterestinbothSEER(kWh)andEER(kW)•Interestin“demandresponse”(poweringdownorcyclingAConpeakdays)•Expectevolutiontovariablespeedequipment(highSEER)withbuilt-inDRcapabilities•Somediscussionofpost-HFCrefrigerants•HopefullywilluseTIWIprincipleTypesofWaterHeatersinU.S.StandardStorageCondensingHeatPumpSolarTanklessU.S.ElectricWaterHeaterEfficiencyStandards00.511.522.5Historic1990200420152015(55gals)EnergyFactor(EF)U.S.GasWaterHeaterEfficiencyStandards00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.8Historic1990200420152015(55gals)EnergyFactor(EF)U.S.HeatPumpWaterHeaterHistory•Highpromise–50%+savingsrelativetoelect