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Tom.com公2010级学号1001211100121110012111001211100121110012111公司的—级P2班第 号198518971817181619741935的估值——公司财第六组： 姓名武赫沈强盛李强李启源魏玲万金洁值分析财务第四析次案例分分析1.AmajBusRevAssessTomjorsharehosinessmodevenuemodem'sbusineolders.el:el:essmodel,2,revenuemmodel,groowthpotenntial,risksandGro200年末望在非常Sha长实Ris1)2)3)4)5)owthpoten根据预测03年末的5末的5.26亿在2003年末网络业在常快，可以areholders:正如案例实集团、Scks:互联网公司互联网行业中国政府对国外的网站Tom的目标tial:测，全世界互5.26亿人，亿人，年增末达到5.3当时的中国预计在未来中介绍，经chunman、H司通常都具有业在中国属于对于互联网行站可能会面临标客户太过宽互联网的使而同时期亚长率达45.3%。国属于新兴来几年，网经过重组，ToHandel、PC有高风险性，于新兴行业，行业的态度还临更严厉的规宽泛，可能比3使用人数将从亚洲的的使4%。PC机兴行业，但一网络业都将是om公司有六CCW，李氏高失败率。Tom公司还不确定，同规则或是发展比较难以明确从1998年末使用人数将由的普及率在一些门户网站是高成长性六个主要股氏家族拥有。能否取得成同时可能会展受阻。确和满足客末的约1.5由2400万上在1998年末站的网页浏性行业。股东Easterh有其62%的股功具有很大阻碍信息通户的需求。56亿人上升上升到200末仅为1.3%浏览量上涨速house、Rom股权。大的不确定性过网络发布升到3年%,有速度efild、性。布。ToImVaAsCuretP/EProRaoptCuMaIPORe5-YMayeaMayeaEaReImrev2.Com.Com:VapliedAveraaluesinHKsumptions:urrentinvestturnEratioin5yofitmarginiateofdilutiotionsurrentFinanarketcapitaO1evenuein19YearProjecarketcapitaars2arketcapitaarsincludinarningsin5evenuein5pliedaveragvenuegrowConsiderthaluationofageRevenK$tor'srequireyearsin5yearsonduetoncialData:lizationat999ctions:lizationin5lizationin5ngdilution3years4years5geannualwthrate6hevaluatiofanAsianIueGrowthScenaed$4,64$55$9,345$9,80$24$1,63nofIntern4InternetCohRateValuario115%4015%5%43,870,00051,695,00040,481,30207,505,36745,187,63434,584,228100%etstocksvompanyuation--InclScenario$4,643,8$51,6$11,555,4$12,133,2$303,3$3,033,3versustraudingScen2S20%4010%5%870,000695,000434,598206,328330,158301,582126%aditionalfinarioAnalyScenairo3$4,643,8$51,6$14,171,9$14,880,5$372,0$7,440,2irms.Whatysis25%405%5%70,00095,00066,55364,88014,12282,440170%taretheValu1)2)Inte1)2)3)4)Trad1)2)3)Accinduatth3.AanysimilaritiesuationMetAbsoluteva)DCF-Sb)ScenaRelativevaa)P/E&profitib)P/SisaffecteIt’savdecreaernetcompaHigh-growHighunceHighcurreHighmarkditionalcomMatureandRevenuesProfitabilityordingtothustries.P/SihebeginningApplyvaluayassumptios?WhatarhodsincluvaluationmeSuitableforarioanalysisaluationmeP/Bareoftifnotyetacsoftenuseeddepreciavailableeveasesassalanieshavetth;rtainty;entlyunprofietinganddmpanieshavdsustainab,profitsandyrangesfrohedifferencismoresuitagyears.ationapproons.Whatrethediffede:ethodstraditionalmsethods:P/E,enusedinccomplisheddwhentheation,inventenprofitisesscaleexthefollowingtable;evelopingcvethefollowlegrowth;dcashflowsom0.1%toceasaboveableforinduoachestoTisTom'sw5erences?manufactur,P/B,P/SIPOandpdanditcanere’sstabletorymovemminus.Buxpands.gcharactercost.wingcharacsarerelativ40%accore,DCFmetustrycompanTom.Clearworthcompingcompanrivateequit’treflecttheerevenuewmentorotheutitcan’tsristics:cteristics:vestableandingtodiffethodsaremnybecauserlystateanparedtotheniesandseltyfund.It’setrueinvestwithlittlevoernon-currehowthecondpredictaberentindustmoresuitablTOMmayhndbeprepaesuggestellingenterprnotavailabtmentvaluevolatility.It’sentexpenditostcontrolble;tries;lefortradithaveminusparedtodefedIPOpricrisesbleife.snotture.andionalprofitfendce?1)WeRevRevRevOpeOpeBetaBetaDebDebCosTaxCapCapNetTermRiskMarWAWAShaTheofTpricDCFmethmakeassuvenue1999venueGrowvenueGroweratingMargeratingMarga2000-200a2005-200bt/Assets20bt/Assets20stofDebtxRatepitalExpendpitalExpendWorkingCminalGrowk-FreeRaterketRiskPrACC2000-2ACC2005-2aresOutstanenwecalculTOMHK$4ce.hod:umptionsaswth2000-20wth2005-20ginAfterTaginAfterTa00409000-2004005-2009dituresabovdituresabovapital/RevwthRateeremium004009ndingAfterlatedcashf,694,538,00sbellow:004009axes2000-2axes2003-2veDepreciaveDepreciavenueIPOflowsfromy00andVal620022009ation2000-2ation2002-2year2000auepersha20022009andgetatotareHK$1.65INtalestimate5,alittlehNHKDolla$51,69580.30.-150.15.0.30.9.15.$200,0008.10.6.6.16.12.2,849,000edpresentvhigherthanr,00000%00%00%00%1.80.500%00%00%00%,000$000%00%00%00%80%28%,000valueIPOIteReOpChCaDeFreTeToDisEsShEsemevenuesperatingProfitaftehangeinNetWorkapitalExpenditureepreciationeeCashFlowerminalValueotalCashFlowsscountRatestimatedValueharesOutstandingstimatedValuePeertax(1kingCapitalesNetof(35,5,4,g2,erShare2000293,051167,139,577)(251,23,3085,200,000200,342,885)(457,1,937,615,594,730(457,116.8%16,694,538,849,0001.65DCFcalcula20012002,492301,485238)(452,228),95510,719,000200,000193)(662,947)--193)(662,947)6.8%16.8%7ation(inthousan2003542,6739781,4011419,2953-62,1061-62,106116.8%ndHKDollar)200420076,8121,269,8546,522190,4734,73123,44-11,791167,03-11,791167,0316.8%12.3052006561,650,81378247,6224330,477--35217,145--35217,1453%12.3%20072,146,0562,7321,908439,620-282,2893-282,289312.3%200820789,8733,626,8418,481544,051,50566,9-366,976477,0-366,976477,012.3%12.009835025957-068-0683%Assto1valumarTOMEstiTerm2)MetP/BP/SBooSaleShaEstiEstiBycTOMAsAAmasumeother5%andrauespersharginandterMishigherimatedValuminalGrow5%8%10%P/SmethothodYahokValueinesin1999aresOutstanimatedvaluimatedvalucalculatingMbyP/BofAmazon.coazonandreassumptionngeterminaareundereminalgrowtthanitsintrDCuePerSharwthRate%%%od:hoo!E33.974.71999ndinguepershareuepershareindustryavfHK$16.65omhasanecalculatednsareu