The-Framing-of-Decisions-and-the-Psychology-of-Cho

TheFramingofDecisionsandthePsychologyofChoiceAuthor(s):AmosTverskyandDanielKahnemanSource:Science,NewSeries,Vol.211,No.4481(Jan.30,1981),pp.453-458Publishedby:AmericanAssociationfortheAdvancementofScienceStableURL::29/03/200901:44YouruseoftheJSTORarchiveindicatesyouracceptanceofJSTOR'sTermsandConditionsofUse,availableat://=aaas.EachcopyofanypartofaJSTORtransmissionmustcontainthesamecopyrightnoticethatappearsonthescreenorprintedpageofsuchtransmission.JSTORisanot-for-profitorganizationfoundedin1995tobuildtrusteddigitalarchivesforscholarship.Weworkwiththescholarlycommunitytopreservetheirworkandthematerialstheyrelyupon,andtobuildacommonresearchplatformthatpromotesthediscoveryanduseoftheseresources.FormoreinformationaboutJSTOR,[e-mail]eAdvancementofScienceiscollaboratingwithJSTORtodigitize,preserveandextendaccesstoScience.[N=152]:ImaginethattheU.S.ispreparingfortheoutbreakofanunusualAsiandisease,whichisexpectedtokill600people.Twoalternativeprogramstocombatthediseasehavebeenproposed.Assumethattheexactscientificestimateofthecon-sequencesoftheprogramsareasfollows:IfProgramAisadopted,200peoplewillbesaved.[72percent]IfProgramBisadopted,thereis1/3probabil-itythat600peoplewillbesaved,and2/3probabilitythatnopeoplewillbesaved.[28percent]Whichofthetwoprogramswouldyoufavor?Themajoritychoiceinthisproblemisriskaverse:theprospectofcertainlysaving200livesismoreattractivethanariskyprospectofequalexpectedvalue,thatis,aone-in-threechanceofsaving600lives.Asecondgroupofrespondentswasgiventhecoverstoryofproblem1withadifferentformulationofthealternativeprograms,asfollows:Problem2[N=155]:IfProgramCisadopted400peoplewilldie.[22percent]IfProgramDisadoptedthereis1/3probabil-itythatnobodywilldie,and2/3p