白酒行业研究报告

白酒分析小组白酒行业分析报告白酒行业分析报告国家产业政策分析白酒行业的现状白酒简介世界酒类情况：蒸馏酒、红酒、啤酒我国主要白酒分类：清香、浓香、酱香2019年白酒行业主要指标白酒需求高涨的原因分析党政军需求商务需求居民消费需求新消费能力增长2019年同比增长(%)产量（万千升）890.8326.81企业数（个）160712.06资产总额（亿元）2,259.3024.10工业总产值（亿元）2,793.3334.06工业销售产值（亿元）2,661.1435.17产品销售收入（亿元）2,421.6231.01利税总额（亿元）318.6134.05行业竞争—Porter五力分析现有企业之间竞争强度的分析竞争激烈潜在进入分析较厚的壁垒供应商分析极其分散买方分析党政军、商务、居民消费替代产品分析中华文化茅台简介垄断地位不可撼动。公司战略分析公司战略品牌战略国酒、绿色食品、世界上最好的蒸馏酒差异化战略巩固发展高端酒、进军中低端酒成本领先战略公司战略分析茅台公司SWOT分析会计分析财务分析1、杜邦分析体系2、经营能力3、营运资本管理4、长期资产管理5、财务管理水平杜邦体系分析杜邦体系分析200820092010茅台34.78%31.07%28.79%泸州老窖36.28%39.66%41.00%200820092010200820092010茅台25.39%23.03%20.87%茅台1.371.351.38泸州老窖24.88%28.27%28.42%泸州老窖1.461.401.44ROEROA财务杠杆原因一：ROA过低200820092010茅台25.39%23.03%20.87%泸州老窖24.88%28.27%28.42%200820092010200820092010茅台48.54%47.08%45.90%茅台0.520.490.45泸州老窖33.36%38.70%42.46%泸州老窖0.750.730.67ROAROS总资产周转率原因二：总资产周转率过低经营能力分析分析营运资本管理存货与战略酱香型：5年15年茅台：5000元5年茅台：500元10年10倍，收益率26%。远超存款利率万吨工程保证产量、销量不减陈年酒销售利润超过普通茅台酒长期资产管理财务分析预测分析销售收入增长率高端白酒继续涨价“十一五”规划进入收获期，继续增加产量中低产品投入市场销售收入增长率预测会计数据2019年2009年2019年2019年销售收入11,633,283,740.189,669,999,065.398,241,685,564.117,237,430,747.12相对前一年的同期增减(%)20.317.3313.847.6会计数据2019年2019年2019年预测增长率35%25%20%预测分析历史数据(单位：百万）预测数据(单位：百万）201920092019201920192019一、营业总收入8,241.699,670.0011,633.2815,123.2718,904.0922,684.90二、营业总成本2,852.623,595.694,472.856,049.317,939.729,754.51其中：营业成本799.71950.671,052.931,497.201,890.412,495.34营业税金及附加681.76940.511,577.012,117.262,835.613,402.74销售费用532.02621.28676.53651.46862.031,058.63管理费用941.171,217.161,346.011,480.621,628.681,791.54财务费用-102.50-133.64-176.58-264.87-370.81-519.14资产减值损失0.45-0.30-3.07-18.570.000.00投资净收益1.321.210.471.000.890.79五、营业利润5,390.386,075.527,160.919,073.9610,964.3712,930.39加：营业外收入6.286.253.807.569.4511.34减：营业外支出11.371.233.804.541.892.27六、利润总额4,522.036,080.547,162.429,076.9910,971.9312,939.47减：所得税费用1,384.541,527.651,822.662,374.352,986.853,561.53七、净利润4,000.764,552.895,339.766,702.637,985.099,377.94少数股东损益201.28240.44288.57346.28415.54498.64归属于母公司所有者的净利润3,799.484,312.455,051.196,356.357,569.558,879.29八、每股收益：0.000.000.000.000.000.00(一)基本每股收益4.034.575.357.108.649.94(二)稀释每股收益4.034.575.357.108.649.94流动资产：货币资金8,093.729,743.1512,888.3917,528.2223,137.2430,772.54交易性金融资产0.000.000.000.000.000.00应收票据170.61380.76204.81-19,220.22-24,987.40-32,768.98应收账款34.8321.391.252.4030.0035.00预付款项741.641,203.131,529.871,621.661,751.391,891.51应收利息2.781.9142.732.162.132.44其他应收款82.6096.0059.1065.7866.6467.50存货3,114.574,192.255,574.130.000.000.00流动资产合计12,240.7515,655.5920,300.280.000.000.00非流动资产：长期股权投资4.004.004.004.004.004.00估值分析β风险溢价WACC数值2.843.10%6.38%11.45%8.82%年份201920192019预测的每股股利2.843.383.97年份201920192019预测的每股收益7.108.469.94市盈率模型法龙头企业平均市盈率=29.13EVA模型法EVA=税后净利润-资本成本估值分析年份201920192019市盈率24.4731.7431.19年份201920092019201920192019税后净利润4,000,759,343.114,552,888,944.005,339,761,496.976,702,632,759.747,985,085,959.269,377,939,021.47所有者权益11,503,418,295.9514,651,565,394.2118,549,389,694.6225,533,625,938.1832,750,582,036.3541,652,837,808.81非流动负债10,000,000.0010,000,000.00EVA2,683,617,948.222,874,139,706.363,214,711,376.943,779,032,589.824,235,144,316.104,608,689,092.36预测结果分析现金流折现模型&EVA折现模型股利折现模型：不定的股利政策市盈率模型：低估综合分析：茅台的股价依然低估估值分析年份现金流股利市盈率EVA2019年预测股价301203206288219