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地震与地震预测中国科学院研究生院地球科学学院魏东平2008年5月14日初稿、16日修改、20日定稿2008年5月29日为地质地球所报告再改特别说明本PPT文件，作为“地震与地震预测”方面的高级科普材料，仅供社会公众参考。相关图片及数据文献资料绝大多数通过网络或学术参考文献公开获得，引用错误及说明不当之处等，皆由本人负完全责任。内容提要1、汶川地震简介2、历史大地震及其它3、地震基本概念4、地震预测及救援5、地震学及其应用汶川地震简介地震三要素（来源USGS）：时间：2008年5月12日14时28分1秒地点：北纬31.0°东经103.4°震源深度19公里强度：震级M7.9阆中古城明代白塔在地震中拦腰折断东方汽轮机厂子弟中学校舍垮塌截至5月20日18时，中国四川汶川大地震已造成40075人遇难，受伤247645人，5百余万人由于房屋破损而无家可归。图件来源：USGS图件来源：中国地震信息网本次地震，震源初始破裂位于汶川，但持续破裂带一直延续至茂县与北川一带。本图显示，本次地震破坏程度空间上呈西南至东北走向的长条形分布，其中地震烈度五度区远至咸阳与重庆。图件来源：USGS这次汶川特大地震，全国绝大部分地区都有强烈或比较明显的震感图件来源：USGS本次汶川特大地震之后，陆续发生了一系列震级4级以上的余震，其中5级以上的余震近20余次。图件来源：USGS（至5月16日20时）图件来源：中国地震信息网（至5月20日20时）本次汶川特大地震之后，陆续发生了一系列震级4级以上的余震，其中5级以上的余震近20余次，此图为余震发生的空间分布动画。（中国地震信息网）历史大地震及其它全球地震分布（数据来源：ISC）19600522-Chile-M9.519640328-PrinceWilliamSound,Alaska-M9.220041226-Sumatra-AndamanM9.119521104-Kamchatka-M9.018680813-Arica,Peru(nowChile)-M9.017000126-CascadiaSubductionZone-M9.019060131-OfftheCoastofEsmeraldas,Ecuador-M8.819650204-RatIslands,Alaska-M8.717551101-Lisbon,Portugal-M8.717300708-Valparasio,Chile-M8.720050328-NorthernSumatra-M8.619570309-AndreanofIslands,Alaska-M8.619500815-Assam-Tibet-M8.620070912-SouthernSumatra,Indonesia-M8.519631013-KurilIslands-M8.519380201-BandaSea,Indonesia-M8.519230203-Kamchatka-M8.519221111-Chile-ArgentinaBorder-M8.518960615-Sanriku,Japan-M8.516871020-Lima,Peru-M8.520010623-NeartheCoastofPeru-M8.419330302-Sanriku,Japan-M8.419050709-Mongolia-M8.420061115-KurilIslands-M8.320030925-Hokkaido,JapanRegion-M8.319581106-KurilIslands-M8.319030811-SouthernGreece-M8.318970612-Assam,India-M8.318770510-OffshoreTarapaca,Chile-M8.318430208-LeewardIslands-M8.319940609-Bolivia-M8.219430406-Illapel-Salamanca,Chile-M8.219420824-OffthecoastofcentralPeru-M8.219400524-Callao,Peru-M8.219381110-ShumaginIslands,Alaska-M8.219081212-OfftheCoastofCentralPeru-M8.219060817-Valparaiso,Chile-M8.218350220-Concepcion,Chile-M8.218210710-Camana,Peru-M8.220070113-EastoftheKurilIslands-M8.120070401-SolomonIslands-M8.120041223-NorthofMacquarieIsland-M8.119980325-BallenyIslandsRegion-M8.119741003-NeartheCoastofCentralPeru-M8.119661017-NeartheCoastofPeru-M8.119571204-Gobi-Altay,Mongolia-M8.119490822-QueenCharlotte,BC,Canada-M8.119461220-Nankaido,Japan-M8.119460401-UnimakIsland,Alaska-M8.119441207-Tonankai,Japan-M8.119340115-Bihar,India-Nepal-M8.119320603-Jalisco,Mexico-M8.118111216-NewMadridRegion-M8.120070815-NeartheCoastofCentralPeru-M8.020060503-Tonga-M8.020001116-NewIrelandRegion,PapuaNewGuinea-M8.019850919-Michoacan,Mexico-M8.019700731-Colombia-M8.019460804-Samana,DominicanRepublic-M8.019451127-MakranCoast,Pakistan-M8.019310810-Xinjiang,China-M8.019200605-Taiwanregion-M8.019071021-Qaratog,Tajikistan-M8.018990910-YakutatBay,Alaska-M8.018911027-Mino-Owari,Japan-M8.018550123-Wellington,NewZealand-M8.018120207-NewMadridRegion-M8.017870502-PuertoRico-M8.016680817-Anatolia,Turkey-M8.015560123-Shensi,China-M8.020080512–四川汶川M7.920070912-KepulauanMentawairegion,Indonesia-M7.920021103-DenaliFault,Alaska-M7.920000618-SouthIndianOcean-M7.920000604-SouthernSumatera,Indonesia-M7.919960610-AndreanofIslands,Alaska-M7.919860507-AndreanofIslands,Alaska-M7.919760816-Mindanao,Philippines-M7.919700531-Chimbote,Peru-M7.919600521-AraucoPeninsula,Chile-M7.919570728-Guerrero,Mexico-M7.919540329-Spain-M7.919420806-Guatemala-M7.919310202-Hawke'sBay,NewZealand-M7.919230901-Kanto(Kwanto),Japan-M7.919050908-Calabria,Italy-M7.918990904-CapeYakataga,Alaska-M7.918680403-Ka'uDistrict,IslandofHawaii-M7.918570109-FortTejon,California-M7.920071209-SouthoftheFijiIslands-M7.820050613-Tarapaca,Chile-M7.820031117-RatIslands,AleutianIslands,Alaska-M7.820001116-NewIrelandRegion,PapuaNewGuinea-M7.819971205-NearEastCoastofKamchatka-M7.819971014-SouthofFijiIslands-M7.819930808-SouthoftheMarianaIslands-M7.819921212-FloresRegion,Indonesia-M7.819871130-GulfofAlaska-M7.819850303-offshoreValparaiso,Chile-M7.819780916-Iran-M7.819690228-Portugal-Moroccoarea-M7.819650314-HinduKush,Afghanistan-M7.819390125-Chillan,Chile-M7.819391226-Erzincan,Turkey-M7.819320618-Colima,Mexico-M7.819310115-Oaxaca,Mexico-M7.819290307-FoxIslands,AleutianIslands,Alaska-M7.819201216-Haiyuan,Ningxia,China-M7.819120809-Murefte,Turkey(OttomanEmpire)-M7.819110103-Chong-Kemin,Kyrgyzstan-M7.819060418-SanFrancisco,California-M7.818920224-ImperialValley,California-M7.818120123-NewMadridRegion-M7.820071114-Antofagasta,Chile-M7.720060717-SouthofJava,Indonesia-M7.720020819-FijiIslands-M7.720020819-FijiIslands-M7.720010113-ElSalvador-M7.719900716-Luzon,PhilippineIslands-M7.719880306-GulfofAlaska-M7.719801010-ElAsnam(formerlyOrleansville),Algeria-M7.719580710-LituyaBay,Alaska-M7.719110607-OffGuerrero,Mexico-M7.719070415-Guerrero,Mexico-M7.719001009-KodiakIsland,Alaska-M7.718120326-Caracas,Venezuela-M7.716190214-Trujillo,Peru-M7.720060420-Koryakia,Russia-M7.620060127-BandaSea-M7.620051008-Pakistan-M7.620050909-NewIrelandRegion,PapuaNewGuinea-M7.620030804-ScotiaSea-M7.620030715-CarlsbergRidge-M7.620030122-OffshoreColima,Mexico-M7.620021010-IrianJaya,Indonesia-M7.620020908-NewGuinea,PapuaNewGuinea-M7.620