92耶鲁大学金融市场课件Lecture 1 - Finance and Insurance as P

FinancialMarkets:Lecture1TranscriptJanuary14,2008-d/Bl/V,R6@#p9@%d+r;G|;aProfessorRobertShiller:ThisisEconomics252,FinancialMarkets,andI'mBobShiller.Letmebeginbyintroducingtheteachingfellowsforthiscourse;andsoIhavethemuphere.Wehavefiveteachingfellowsatthistimeandthey'refromallover.Iliketoputtheirpicturesupsoyou'llknowwhotheyare.Theteachingfellowsareveryinternationalandthatreflectsmyintentiontomakethisacoursethatisalsoveryinternationalbecausefinanceissomethingaboutthewholeworldtoday,notjusttheUnitedStates.SowecovertheworldverywellwithourT.A.'s.UsmanAliisfromPakistan,Lahore,andhegraduatedfromtheLUMS,LahoreUniversityofManagementSciences.He'saPhDcandidatenowinEconomicsandhe'sdoinghisdoctoraldissertationonstockanalysts'recommendationsandtherelationtoreturnsinthestockmarket.He'salsointerestedinbehavioralfinance,whichistheapplicationofpsychologytofinance.Thesecondteachingassistant--Iseehimrightthere,ifyoucouldraiseyourhand--SantoshAnagol,whoisarepresentativeoftheUnitedStates,althoughheseemstohaveconnectionstoIndiaaswell.HeactuallyhasapublicationalreadyintheAmericanEconomicReviewontheReturntoCapitalwithGhana.HedidthisjointlywiththeChairmanoftheEconomicsDepartmenthere,ChrisUdryandhehasspenttimeinIndialookingatthevillageeconomies.Youweregoingtobegivingawaycows,didyoudothat?Student:No,I'mstillworkingoncowsbutwe'renotgivingthemaway.&A3~:M%I8CProfessorRobertShiller:Okay,that'sthelasttimeyou'llhearaboutcowsinthiscourse.Theideawastogivecowsawaytovillagefarmersandtoobservetheoutcome.It'sabigchangeinsomeoftheseverypoorvillagestogetacow.4V3h3}.a9u8VL5c%l$H0l!O4~+T)NChristianAwuku-BuduisfromGhana,Accra,buthe,again,wenttocollegeintheUnitedStatesatMorehouseCollege.HeisalsoaPhDcandidateinEconomicsatYaleandhe'sbeendoingresearchonfinancialmarketsindevelopingcountries.YaxinDuanisfromChina.ShegotherundergraduatedegreefromNanjingUniversity.No?YouarefromNanjing,didIgetadetailwrong?Wheredidyougotocollege?Okay,wellI'msorryaboutthat.SheisalsoaPhDcandidateinEconomicsandisdoingresearchonthebehaviorofoptionspricesinaphenomenoncalledtheoptionssmile,asshe'ssmilingatmerightnow.Sheisalsointerestedinbehavioralfinance,whichisgreattomebecausethat'soneofmyinterests.Sheisshownherestandingprecariouslyonacliff.ItmakesmenervoustolookatitoverlookingMachuPicchuinPeru.Shealsolovesastronomy,whichisincidentallyaninterestofminetoo,butyouwon'thearaboutitagaininthiscourse.Finally,XiaolanZhouisourfifthteachingassistantandshe'salsofromChina,HubeiProvince.ShegraduatedfromWuhanUniversityandisaPhDcandidateinEconomicsatYale.Sheisdoingresearchonbankmergers./K3e0o.s$c#`Letmesay,I'vebeenteachingthiscoursenowforovertwentyyearsandI'mveryproudofallofmyalumni.Manyofthemareinthefieldoffinance.Infact,IlikesometimeswhenIgive--Igivealotofpublictalks.WhenIgiveatalkonWallStreetorevensomewhereelseintheworldIsometimesaskmyaudience,Didyoutakemycourse?It'snotinfrequentthatI'llgetoneoreventwopeopleraisingtheirhandthattheytookEconomics252fromme.ButI'malsoproudofmyalumniinthiscoursewhoarenotintheworldoffinance.Ithinkthiscoursegoesbeyond--It'snotjustforpeoplewhoareplanningcareersinfinancebecausefinanceisaveryimportanttechnologyandit'sveryimportanttoknowfinancetounderstandwhathappensintherealworld.Justaboutanyhumanendeavorinvolvesfinance.Now,youmightsay,Icouldbeapoetandwhatdoesthathavetodowithfinance?Well,itprobablyendsuphavingsomethingtodowithfinancebecauseasapoetyouprobablywanttopublishyourpoetryandyou'regoingtobetalkingtopublishers.Beforeyouknowit,they'regoingtobetalkingabouttheirfinancialsituationandhowyoufitintoit.4F6W!o$k!Z3i+k4z!h$H.z2r-h0f5C5rIbelieveit'sfundamentalandveryimportant.Ithinkyouwillfindthiscourseasnotavocationalcourse--notprimarilyavocationalcourse--butanintellectualcourseabouthowthingsreallywork.Iseefinanceastheunderpinningofsomuchthathappens.It'sapowerfulforcethatgoesbehindthesceneandIhopewecandrawthatoutinthiscourse.Thereisanothercourse--wehavetwobasiccoursesinfinanceforundergraduatesatYale.TheotheroneisEconomics251,FinancialTheory;thisisFinancialMarkets,thatoneisFinancialTheory.LastyearitwastaughtbyRafaelRomeu,becauseJohn,Geanakoploswhousuallyteachesthecourse,wasonleaveandsowehadtofindsomeoneelse.IassumethatnextfallJohnGeanakoploswillbeteaching251again..H!{(]/x'oSowhathappened?Whydowehavethesetwocourses?Wellitwassomethinglikeeightyearsagothatwereachedthepresentsituationwithtwofinancecourses.JohnGeanakoplosandIhadameetingandwetriedtodivideupthesubjectmatteroffinanceintotwocourses.WethoughtFinancialTheoryandFinancialMarketswouldbethetwo.ButtheproblemwasthatbothJohnandIareinterestedinboththeoryandapplications.JohnGeanakoplosisactuallyChiefEconomistforalargeinvestmentcalledEllingtonCapitalinGreenwich,Connecticut,whichyou'llseealotinthenews.Ithasbeenverysuccessful.HeisverymuchinterestedintherealworldandIaminterestedinfinancialtheory,sowefindit--wedecided,aftertalkingaboutit,thatwereallycan'tdivideupthesubjectmatteroffinanceintoseparatecoursesontheoryandpractice.Ifyoutriedtodoonealoneitwouldnotwork,sowedecidedtodivideitupimperfectlyandtheremaybesomerepetitionbetweenour