气候变化对城市生态系统的影响研究进展

6E*361021、。、。X171Adoi10.3969/j.issn.1003-6504.2010.6E.0511003-6504(2010)6E-0193-05ResearchProgressofClimatechangeeffectsonurbanecosystemSHILong-yu*,CUISheng-huiInstituteofUrbanEnvironment,ChineseAcademyofSciences,Xiamen,361021,ChinaAbstractAseriesofclimaticandenvironmentalproblemscausedbyglobalwarminghavebecomeincreasinglyprominent,andhaveasignificantimpactsonurbanproductionanddailylife,evenbroughtdisastrousconsequencesforhumansociety.Thispapersummarizedclimatechangeimpactsonurbanecosystemintothreeaspects,whichwerehumanhealth,socio-economicdevelopmentandecosystemservices,andalsoexpatiatedtheassessmentmethodsandpracticetrendsconcerningclimatechangeimpactsonurbanecosystembothathomeandabroad,aswellasthecurrentproblemsandfuturedevelopmentinordertoprovidesuggestionsforurbandevelopmentpoliciesandmeasuresasaddressingclimatechange.Keywordsclimatechange;urbanecosystem;ecosystemservice;humanhealth;re[e-mail]。。2007IPCCAR41001906~20050.74℃。1.1~6.4℃[1]。、。--[2]。、、。。。、。11.12080。、。“”“”。EnvironmentalScience&Technology336E20106Vol.33No.6EJune201033“”。“”。29℃。39℃。、、、[2]。。2003[3]。IPCC。。20503.6~7.1[1]。1.22090。[4]。2006、、、、、、[5]。2008[6]。。。[7]。WHO。2002WHOComparativeRiskAssessmentCRA[8]。CRAGlobalburdenofdiseaseGBD。CRADALYdisability-adjustedlife-year。2004-。20502030[9]。22.1、、、。。、。、、。[10]。、、[11]。、、、[12]。。。2.2。1946E。。2000、、HeatingDegreeDays[13]。2008UU20℃[14]。、。。[15]。2009IPAC。3BusinessasUsual、LowCarbonScenarioEnhancedLowCarbonScenario。、[16]。2.3、、、。、、。、、。、、、。[17]。33.1、。。1。、。SO2、CH4、CFCsN2OCO2、、。2、。70LTER。。2060HubbardBrook。19533。CO2、。、、。4m2。N、、、、。。、、。。。GeneralCirculationModel。。[18]。3.2。CO2“”。、。CO220502℃15％9％10％1000200。、1％~2％2％5％~6％10％。----1％~10％。。4。1。。--。。2。。、。/。3。。。。。、GIS。、、。1966E。。。[][1]IPCC(IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange).ClimateChange2007:SynthesisReport[DB/OL].2007.[2],,,.[J].,2007,35(2):245-248.ZhangQiang-yang,JuJian-hua,WangWei-dan,etal.Im－pactofclimatewarmingonhumanhealth[J].MeteorologicalScienceandTechnology,2007,35(2):245-248.(inChinese)[3]VandentorrenS,SuzanF,MedinaS,etal.Mortalityin13FrenchcitiesduringtheAugust2003heatwave[J].AmericanJournalofPublicHealth,2004,94(9):1518-1520.[4]KovatsRS,BoumaMJ,HajatS,etal.ElNinoandhealth[J].Lancet,2003,362:1481-1489.[5],,,.[J].,2006,33(4):182-224.YangKun,WangXian-hong,LvShan,etal.Impactofglobalwarmingontransmissionofvector-bornediseasesinChina[J].InternationalJournalofMedicalParasiticDiseases,2006,33(4):182-224.(inChinese)[6],,,.[J].,2008,37(9):96-97.LiYong-hong,ChengYi-bin,JinYin-long,etal.Researchprogressonclimatechangeanditsinfluenceonhumanhealth[J].JournalofMedicalResearch,2008,37(9):96-97.(inChinese)[7]WHO(worldhealthorganization).Climatechangeandhu－manhealth:risksandresponses,summary[DB/OL].2003.[8]KovatsRS,Campbell-LendrumD,MatthiesF.Climatechangeandhumanhealth:estimatingavoidabledeathsanddisease[J].RiskAnalysis,2005,25(6):1409-1418.[9],,,.[J].,2004,22(5):262-267.ZhouXiao-nong,YangKun,HongQing-biao,etal.Pre－dictionoftheImpactofClimateWarmingonTransmissionofSchistosomiasisinChina[J].ChineseJournalofParasitol－ogyandParasiticDiseases,2004,22(5):262-267.(inChinese)[10].[DB/OL].2008.[DB/OL].2008.(inChinese)[11],.、[J].,1999,22(4):625-630.MiaoQi-longZhouSuo-quan.Impactofrisingsealevelonseadikes,shippingandwaterresourceintheYangtzedelta[J].JournalofNanjingInstituteofMeteorology,1999,22(4):625-630.(inChinese)[12],.[J].,2007,(4):26-28.LuoTai-fu,HuDi.Analysisofannualchangecharacteris－ticsofavigationmeteorologyfactorsinWuhanairport[J].AvigationMeteorology,2007,(4):26-28.(inChinese)[13],.[J].,2000,55(S1):11-20.ChenYu,HuangChao-ying.Impactofclimatechangeonenergydemand[J].ActaGeographicaSinica,2000,55(S1):11-20.(inChinese)[14],.[J].,2008,19(5):531-5538.WuXiang-yang,ZhangHai-dong.EconometricanalysisonBeijingtemperatureinfluenceuponelectricityload[J].Jour－nalofAppliedMeteorologicalScience,2008,19(5):531-5538.(inChinese)[15]ADB(AsianDevelopmentBank).TheEconomicsofClimateChangeinSoutheastAsia:ARegionalReview[DB/OL]2008.－mate-change-sea/default.asp.[16],,,.2050[J].,2009,14(6):1-7.JiangKe-jun,HuXiu-lian,ZhuangXing,etal.China'slow-carbonscenariosandroadmapfor2050[J].Sino-globalEnergy,2009,14(6):1-7.(inChinese)[17],,,.[J].,2005,23(3):41-43.LuoYong,JiangYing,DongWen-jie,etal.Climatechangeandsealevelriseandtheirimpactsonthedamageoftsunami[J].Science&TechnologyReview,2005,23(3):41-43.(inChinese)[18]TurnerS.Linkingland-surfaceandatmospheregeneralcirculationmodels[J].AMBIO,1989,18(6):355.197