2011年全球电子商务趋势eCommerce Trends In 2011 And Beyond

©2010ForresterResearch,Inc.ReproductionProhibited1©2009ForresterResearch,Inc.ReproductionProhibitedeCommerceTrendsIn2011AndBeyondSucharitaMulpuru,PrincipalAnalystNovember1,2010.Callinat10:55a.m.Easterntime©2010ForresterResearch,Inc.ReproductionProhibited2Thebullisback...atleastineCommerce.©2010ForresterResearch,Inc.ReproductionProhibited3CurrentstateofeCommerceTrendstowatchQuestions?Agenda©2010ForresterResearch,Inc.ReproductionProhibited4RetailerscontinuetoreportgrowthYOYgrowthbyeCommerceretailersBases:varies(alleCommerceretailers)Source:Forrester/Shop.orgQuarterlyFlashsurveys©2010ForresterResearch,Inc.ReproductionProhibited5WeexpectthistocontinueUS$MM%ofretailsalesonline8%9%9%9%10%Source:ForresterResearchInternetShoppingModel,12/09(US)CAGR2010-144%10%©2010ForresterResearch,Inc.ReproductionProhibited6ThisisalsoamarketshareissueSource:Forrester’sConsumerTechnographics®2005NorthAmericanBenchmarkStudyandNorthAmericanTechnographicsBenchmarkSurvey,2009(US,Canada)Base:allUShouseholds©2010ForresterResearch,Inc.ReproductionProhibited7CurrentstateofeCommerceTrendstowatchQuestions?Agenda©2010ForresterResearch,Inc.ReproductionProhibited8TrendsineCommerce1.Multichannelgrowth2.Amazon.comcontinuingtotakesharefrombig-boxretailers;newrevenuemodels3.“Antisocial”behavior4.Manufacturersdirect-to-consumeractivity5.Mobilegrowth6.SeasonalityofeCommerce7.Morevideoandhigh-touchcustomerservice8.SimplicityineCommercesiteexecution9.Testing,personalization,andcontinuedimprovement10.Globalization©2010ForresterResearch,Inc.ReproductionProhibited9Multichannelmeansdifferentthings...TacticIllustrativeretailersBenefitstobrick-and-mortarretailersIn-storepickupTescoOpportunityforconsumerstoreceiveproductsimmediately;drivesshopperstostorevisits;incrementalspendingtoaddtobasketStoredeliveryWal-MartDrivesincrementalvisitstostore;enablesdrop-shipintegrationanddoesnottieupfloorinventoryorspaceCourierdeliveryNext,NET-A-PORTEREnablespick-and-packfromlocalstoresforimmediacy,enablesshopperstocustomizedeliverytosuittheirneedsStoredrive-throughChronodrive,AuchanDrive,CVS,Sears’MyGoferEnablesshopperstoreceiveproductsquicklyandtomakegooduseoflabor;potentialriskitmaydecrease“attachments”atpurchaseIn-storereturnsGapDeliversagainstacustomerexpectationbutalsotypicallyreturnsareexchanged;anincrementalvisitdriventostores;savesshoppersonreturnshipmentfeesInventoryvisibilityacrosschannelsCoach,HalfordsEmpowerscustomerswith“knowbeforeyougo”detailtomakefutureshoppingtripsmoreefficientWeb/mobilesupportinstoresSears,SephoraProvidesshopperscriticalinformationsuchascustomerratingsandreviewsorstoremaps©2010ForresterResearch,Inc.ReproductionProhibited10...butitisextremelycritical“[Buyonline,pickupinstore]wasTHEvalueproposition.”-Formerpresident,big-boxelectronicsretailer(US)©2010ForresterResearch,Inc.ReproductionProhibited11ThefutureisGapposIn-storepickupandvariantsofit,forvirtuallyallproductcategories,willbeanexpectationforthefuture.Someinnovativeretailerswillusemarketplacemodelstodrivetraffictophysicalstoresandexpandassortmentswhilealsoreducingshippingexpenses.©2010ForresterResearch,Inc.ReproductionProhibited12MultichannelwillbeacompetitiveadvantageBase:1,345USonlineconsumerswhohaveusedthe“buyonline,pickupinstore”featurewhenpurchasingonlinefromaretailerSource:NorthAmericanTechnographics®RetailOnlineSurvey,Q32008*Percentwhoresponded4or5onascaleof1(stronglydisagree)to5(stronglyagree)©2010ForresterResearch,Inc.ReproductionProhibited13TrendsineCommerce1.Multichannelgrowth2.Amazon.comcontinuingtotakesharefrombig-boxretailers;newrevenuemodels3.“Antisocial”behavior4.Manufacturersdirect-to-consumeractivity5.Mobilegrowth6.SeasonalityofeCommerce7.Morevideoandhigh-touchcustomerservice8.SimplicityineCommercesiteexecution9.Testing,personalization,andcontinuedimprovement10.Globalization©2010ForresterResearch,Inc.ReproductionProhibited14Thishasbeenatrendforawhilenow©2010ForresterResearch,Inc.ReproductionProhibited15Site-to-storeisn’tanoption;it'sanimperativetoensurethatstorebasketsizedoesn’tdeclineovertime26%ofonlineconsumerssaytheyarewillingtobuyonlineatastorethathasin-storepickuptoavoidpayingshipping.20%ofonlineconsumerssaytheyaremorelikelytobuyatanonlinestorethathasanin-storepickupprogram.17%ofonlineconsumerssaidtheytookmoreadvantageofin-storepickupduringthe2009holidaysthaninthepast.eCommerceasa%oftotalretailMorethanone-tenthofnon-grocerysalesareonline...Source:ForrestereCommerceforecast;Q12010andQ32009OnlineRetailSurveys...howevermanyconsumerswanttousesitetostoreprograms©2010ForresterResearch,Inc.ReproductionProhibited16TriadDigitalistheintermediaryprovidingancillarycontentbymanufacturerstoeCommercesiteslikeWal-Mart.SearchandiseCommerceenablesmanufacturersto“bid”fortopplacementonmulticategory,multivendorrelationships.©2010ForresterResearch,Inc.ReproductionProhibited17©2010ForresterResearch,Inc.ReproductionProhibited18TrendsineCommerce1.Multichannelgrowth2.Amazon.comcontinuingtotakesharefrombig-boxretailers;newrevenuemodels3.“Antisocial”behavior4.Manufacturersdirect-to-consumer