信息技术的未来与电子政务

2003.3‰‰‰‰‰1946ENIAC3030180174684005050121299181880088028680486PentiumPentiumII803868088PentiumIIIFigure1.2Moore'sLawMillionTransistorsperIntelMicroprocessorSOURCE:(Logscale)20021302003100201030Figure1.3PriceDeclinesinComputersHaveAcceleratedSince1995(logscale;index1987Q1=100)Source:U.S.BureauofEconomicAnalysis19871989199119931995199719995102550100120Trenddeclineof12.1percentbetween87Q1and94Q3Trenddeclineof26.2percentbetween94Q4and99Q4Actual25123952198556Kb/SNSFnetTeraGrid40Gb/S176,,ABC((WebServicesWebServices))WorldWideWeb(WWW)HTMLXML1980s1990s1950s1950s1970s1990s1950s1980s1990s(P2P)(GridComputing)2.12.1(Peer(Peer--toto--PeerNetworksPeerNetworks––P2P)P2P)1.Napster1.Napster––MP320013(Grutella)Grutella2.2./(P2P)PCP2P3.3.1234P2PP2P4.4.EdgeResourceIdentityPresence5.5.P2PP2PXMLP2PP2PIBMIntelSun,P2PP2P420P2P2.22.2(GridComputing)(GridComputing)P2P211.1.10GbGb2.2.3.3.P2PP2P“”4.4.5.5.51PCCPU100MHz100MbPCPC100MHz(108100MHz1010MHz)100Mb(108100Mb1010Mb)6.6.12“”34“”57.7.2001“”Nug30630(1006)(EntropiaInc.)37951503512“”1.1.Linux,2.2.100(“”)“”“”2090Sun“”“”“”“/”“”“”3.3.‰‰‰‰NGN-I•QoSIPv6‰•Internet2/LSNCAnet3/4GeantAPAN•IPv6‰ISCInternationalSoft-switchConsortium‰•WDM910.24Tb/s(256*40G)9NEC10.96Tb/s(274*40G)97.04Tb/s(176*40G)91.6Tb/s(160*10G)•4000‰•IBM•BellONTC‰ACTS•KOMNET•PHOTON‰CA*net3-‰--OTN‰GSM/CDMA3G)‰3GIP‰TD-SCDMA‰Beyond3G/4G(IMT2000)/Beyond4G‰WLAN‰‰‰‰•9IP9ƒATM—ƒIP—99ƒƒ‰—•WDM••SDHIPIP••20-40Tb/s,40-80Tb/s‰—3G24G•4G•‰WLANIP‰IP‰WDM‰WDMIP‰‰‰‰PAN)VAN)WLAN•‰••‰‰‰0202‰‰‰‰„„(())„„„„„„„„(())0202„„11„„20032003CERTCERT20022002„„2002200219999895200021756200152658200282094CERT20021999419200010902001243720024129CERT2002„„22„„„„0202„„0202„„020280%80%„„33„„FBIFBI(CSI)(CSI)[[]]20022002----„„RiptechRiptech200220021133.133.122.122.119.919.917.617.615.915.9$346,000$13,055,000$15,134,000$18,370,500$50,099,000$11,766,500$49,979,000$6,015,000$115,753,000$4,503,000$170,827,000CSI/FBI2002„„44„„24241515””““„„20032003„„0202991818„„0202992020„„NSANSA(IATF)(IATF)3.13.1„„((CybercorpsCybercorps))200220022277““””„„335353„„„„„„„„„„„„11„„0202[IT[IT]]„„„„„„„„22PKIPKI„„PKIPKIPKIPKI„„20022002PKIPKIPKIPKI„„33„„„„„„IBMIBM„„44„„200220027733SecureInterSecureInter--NetworkNetworkArchitectureArchitecture----SINAVPNSINAVPN„„TEMPESTTEMPEST„„::SINAVPNSINAVPNSINASINASINAvpnSINAvpnboxbox„„„„„„[2002]17[2002]17„„““””(())„„„„„„PKIPKI„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„““””““””„„PKI/KMIPKI/KMI//„„„„„„PKIPKI„„„„„„„„„„„„„„VPNVPN„„„„„„„„PKI/KMIPKI/KMI„„//„„„„„„PKIPKIPKIPKIPKIPKIPKIPKIPKIPKIXPMIWPKIPKIAPIAPIPKIPKIPKI/KMIPKI/KMI————//————„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„///————„„„„„„…………„„„„„„„„…………„„„„„„„„…………————IPIP————„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„““””““””““””::„„„„„„1.1.„„„„PKI/KMIPKI/KMI//„„22„„„„““””„„33„„„„„„„„““””““””„„44„„„„„„55„„CPUCPU„„““””//„„66„„„„GGBBCCG2GG2GGGBBCCB2GB2GC2GC2GG2BG2BG2CG2C2=2=to(a)(a)(G2G)(G2G)(b)(b)(G2B)(G2B)(c)(c)G2CG2C(d)(d)(B2G)(B2G)(e)(e)C2GC2G()()G2GG2GG2BG2BG2CG2CB2GB2GC2GC2G24x724x7G2GG2B/G2C1950s1990s()4123(a)(a)“/”“/”“”“”(b)(b)()()200012500200012500(c)(c)(d)(d)()()--¾www.FirstGov.orgwww.canada.gc.ca¾¾¾¾¾(eCitizen)¾“”¾303070¾65¾StandishGroup20002823282349‰‰12‰4‰‰……1N2…‰‰‰‰“”‰‰‰2002-2003‰47‰12‰4‰‰‰‰‰‰“”‰CACA‰‰2004-2005‰‰‰‰‰‰‰‰‰‰“”‰‰‰管理（运营）人才••••••••••••••••••••7PKIPMIKMIPKIPMIKMI/PKI/KMIVPN//IP/••————••————••————••————••————••————••••••••••••••••••••••••••DESDESRSARSATT--DESDESRC2RC2AESAES••EESEES••DSSDSSRSARSASHASHA--11MD5MD5••SNMPv2SNMPv2SNMPv3SNMPv3••S/MIMIS/MIMIPGPPGPPEMPEM••PKIPKIPKIXPKIX••PMIPMI••IEEE802.10IEEE802.10ISAKMPISAKMPKMIKMI••::••X.509.V3X.509.V3X.509.V4X.509.V4••SSLSSLSHTTPSHTTPTLSPTLSP••IPIPVPNVPNIPSECIPSECIPV6IPV6RadiusRadius••CAPICAPIGSSGSS--APIAPICDSACDSA••ACLACLROACROAC••KerberosKerberosDSSADSSAYaKshaYaKsha••TCSESTCSESCCCC••CIDFCIDF••OSI7498OSI7498--22DGSADGSAXDSFXDSFDISSPDISSP••::PICSPICS••••••//••CC/CC/TcsecTcsec••CA/PKICA/PKI••CERTCERT••AVERTAVERT••DRIDRI••••••••••••••••••••••CACAToKenToKen••ACLACLLabelLabelAAAA••FWFWProxyProxyNGNGNFNF••••••••AgentAgent••••““””••““””OSOSDBDB••//••GPKIGPKI••••••••KMIKMI••OSOSDBDBICIC77.2—“”—“”—7—Internet••••••SMTPSMTPFIPFIPWeb/BrowserWeb/BrowserB/A/DB/A/D•••••••••••••••••7PKI/KMI—CA,CA—PMI——————GPKIGPKIGPKIGRCANBCAPMAGCAGRAGRAGCAGRAGRAGCAGCAGRASCAGRACCAICAKMIKMIKMI••VPNVPNTunnelTunnelTLSTLSSS--TokenTokenSS--WebWebS/WIWES/WIWESS--LabelLabelDD--SignaturesSignaturesSS--DBDB••••KMIKMIEGEG••//••GPKIGPKI••••••••KMIKMI••OSOSDBDBICIC