成本管理统计课件3

Electroniccopyavailableat:=642322Domergersynergiesexist?GennaroBerniley,ScottBauguesszFebruary2010AbstractExecutivesfrequentlyforecastlargee¢ciencygainsfrommergers.Usingthesepro-jections,westudytheimpactofsynergiesonmergerperformance.Investors’reactiontomergersvariesdirectlywiththeavailabilityofforecastsandthegainstheyimply,andpost-mergeroperatingperformanceincreaseswiththepredictablecomponentofsynergiesbasedondealcharacteristics.Therealizedimprovements,however,donotdependontheavailabilityofforecastsorthesurprisetheyconvey.Long-termreturnsreconcilethediscrepanciesbetweeninvestors’exantebeliefsandmergers’expostper-formance.Theevidencesupportstheneoclassicalviewthatsynergies’expectationsandrealizationsareimportantdeterminantsofmergersuccess.Keywords:MergersandAcquisitions,Synergies,ManagementForecasts,MergerPer-formance.JELClassi…cationNumbers:G14,G17,G34.ThisprojectisdedicatedtothememoryofMichaelBarclay.GennaroisgratefultohisdisserationcommitteemembersMichaelBarclay,GreggJarrell,andG.WilliamSchwertforhelpingtoshapethisprojectandprovidingcontinuoussupport.WealsothankforcommentsandsuggestionsRuiAlbuquerque,DavidBecher,JamesBrickley,FredHood,ChristopherJames(AFAdiscussant),TullioJappelli,JamesLinck,XiLi,EvgenyLyandres,SanjogMisra,Je¤Netter,GregNiehaus,MarcoPagano,HyunSongShin(WISEdiscussant),Cli¤SmithJr.,RossWatts,JoshWhite,RyanWhitby(FMADiscussant),JoannaWu,JerryZimmerman,andsessionparticipantsattheIIWISEinSalerno,2004,theAFA2005Meetings,FMA2006Meetings,andseminarparticipantsatConcordiaUniversity,DrexelUniversity,GeorgeMasonUniversity,McGillUniversity,NorwegianSchoolofManagement,UniversityofAarhus,UniversityofGeorgia,UniversityofMiami,UniversityofRochester,andUniversityofSouthCarolina.Finally,wegratefullyacknowledgethededicationandassistanceofBarbaraFebbraroandseveralundergraduatestudentsattheUniversityofMiamiincollectingthedataforthisproject.Webearfullresponsibilityforanyremainingerrors.ySchoolofBusiness,UniversityofMiami,CoralGables,FL33124,[e-mail],tel:[phone];SEC,Washington,DC,[e-mail],tel:[phone].zSEC,Washington,DC,[e-mail],tel:[phone].Electroniccopyavailableat:=642322Domergersynergiesexist?February2010AbstractExecutivesfrequentlyforecastlargee¢ciencygainsfrommergers.Usingthesepro-jections,westudytheimpactofsynergiesonmergerperformance.Investors’reactiontomergersvariesdirectlywiththeavailabilityofforecastsandthegainstheyimply,andpost-mergeroperatingperformanceincreaseswiththepredictablecomponentofsynergiesbasedondealcharacteristics.Therealizedimprovements,however,donotdependontheavailabilityofforecastsorthesurprisetheyconvey.Long-termreturnsreconcilethediscrepanciesbetweeninvestors’exantebeliefsandmergers’expostper-formance.Theevidencesupportstheneoclassicalviewthatsynergies’expectationsandrealizationsareimportantdeterminantsofmergersuccess.Keywords:MergersandAcquisitions,Synergies,ManagementForecasts,MergerPer-formance.JELClassi…cationNumbers:G14,G17,G34.1.IntroductionNeoclassicaltheoriesportraymergersas…rms’rationalreactiontoindustry,regulatory,andtechnologicalshocksfosteringane¢cientallocationofresources.1Manypractitionersandacademicsmaintainthatthepotentialforamergedentitytooperatemoree¢cientlythanthemergingstand-alone…rms,i.e.,availabilityofsynergies,isanimportantdeterminantofthemergerdecision.2Agencyandbehavioraltheories,ontheotherhand,viewmergersasamanifestationoftheinherentagencycon‡ictbetween…rminsidersandinvestors,orofthecognitivebiasesa­ictingmanagers,orofinsiders’attemptstoexploitmarketmisvalua-tions.3Althoughtheseexplanationsarenotmutuallyexclusive,weaddressalong-standing,importantquestionattheheartofneoclassicaltheories:dosynergiesexist?Existingstudiescommonlyinfertheexistenceofsynergiesfromvariousmeasuresofmergerperformance.Short-termeventstudiestypicallyindicatethatnetgainstomerging…rms’shareholdersarepositive,whileanalysesofpost-mergeroperatingandstockperformanceprovidemixedevidence,atbest.Moreover,severalresearchershighlightthatitmaybedi¢cultorevenunfeasibletodrawinferenceabouttheexistenceandmagnitudeofmergersynergiesfromtheavaiableevidence(e.g.,Kaplan,Mitchell,andWruck,2000;Andrade,Mitchell,andSta¤ord,2001;Hietala,Kaplan,andRobinson,2003).Arguably,questionsremainastowhetherthesuccessofM&Adependsontheexistenceandmagnitudeofpotentialsynergies.Toaddressthesequestions,weexploitalargelyunexploredsourceofinformation:thesynergiesforecastsprovidedbymerging…rms’insiders.Inprinciple,managerialprojectionsprovideauniqueexperimentaltoolwithwhichtoassesstheeconomicrelevanceofmerger-relatede¢ciencies,becausemanagersareinthebestpositiontoevaluatethem.Yet,thatinsiderswouldportrayM&Aashavingthepotential1Mitchell’andMuhlerin’s(1997)andHarford’s(2005)studiesofmergerssupportGort’s(1969)argument.2See,forinstance,Bradley,Desai,andKim(1988),Kaplan(2000),MaksimovicandPhillips(2001),JovanovicandRousseau(2002),andHouston,James,andRyngaert(2001).3Insiders’self-interestedbehavioristhedriverofthemergerdecision