Does-compulsory-school-attendance-affect-schooling

OxfordUniversityPressiscollaboratingwithJSTORtodigitize,preserveandextendaccesstoTheQuarterlyJournalofEconomics.(s):JoshuaD.AngristandAlanB.KruegerSource:TheQuarterlyJournalofEconomics,Vol.106,No.4(Nov.,1991),pp.979-1014Publishedby:OxfordUniversityPressStableURL::10-10-201502:41UTCYouruseoftheJSTORarchiveindicatesyouracceptanceoftheTerms&ConditionsofUse,[e-mail]m202.112.90.251onSat,10Oct201502:41:36UTCAllusesubjecttoJSTORTermsandConditionsTHEQUARTERLYJOURNALOFECONOMICSVol.CVINovember1991Issue4DOESCOMPULSORYSCHOOLATTENDANCEAFFECTSCHOOLINGANDEARNINGS?*JOSHUAD.ANGRISTANDALANB.KRUEGERWeestablishthatseasonofbirthisrelatedtoeducationalattainmentbecauseofschoolstartagepolicyandcompulsoryschoolattendancelaws.Individualsborninthebeginningoftheyearstartschoolatanolderage,andcanthereforedropoutaftercompletinglessschoolingthanindividualsbornneartheendoftheyear.Roughly25percentofpotentialdropoutsremaininschoolbecauseofcompulsoryschoolinglaws.Weestimatetheimpactofcompulsoryschoolingonearningsbyusingquarterofbirthasaninstrumentforeducation.Theinstrumentalvariablesestimateofthereturntoeducationisclosetotheordinaryleastsquaresestimate,suggestingthatthereislittlebiasinconventionalestimates.Everydevelopedcountryintheworldhasacompulsoryschoolingrequirement,yetlittleisknownabouttheeffecttheselawshaveoneducationalattainmentandearnings.1ThispaperexploitsanunusualnaturalexperimenttoestimatetheimpactofcompulsoryschoolinglawsintheUnitedStates.Theexperimentstemsfromthefactthatchildrenbornindifferentmonthsoftheyearstartschoolatdifferentages,whilecompulsoryschoolinglawsgenerallyrequirestudentstoremaininschooluntiltheirsixteenthorseventeenthbirthday.Ineffect,theinteractionofschool-entryrequirementsandcompulsoryschoolinglawscompelstudentsborn*WethankMichaelBoozerandLisaKruegerforoutstandingresearchassis-tance.FinancialsupportwasprovidedbythePrincetonIndustrialRelationsSection,anNBEROlinFellowshipinEconomics,andtheNationalScienceFoundation(SES-9012149).WearealsogratefultoLawrenceKatz,JohnPencavel,ananonymousreferee,andmanyseminarparticipantsforhelpfulcomments.Thedataandcomputerprogramsusedinthepreparationofthispaperareavailableonrequest.1.SeeOECD[1983]foracomparisonofcompulsoryschoolinglawsindifferentcountries.t1991bythePresidentandFellowsofHarvardCollegeandtheMassachusettsInstituteofTechnology.TheQuarterlyJournalofEconomics,November1991Thiscontentdownloadedfrom202.112.90.251onSat,10Oct201502:41:36UTCAllusesubjecttoJSTORTermsandConditions980QUARTERLYJOURNALOFECONOMICSincertainmonthstoattendschoollongerthanstudentsborninothermonths.Becauseone'sbirthdayisunlikelytobecorrelatedwithpersonalattributesotherthanageatschoolentry,seasonofbirthgeneratesexogenousvariationineducationthatcanbeusedtoestimatetheimpactofcompulsoryschoolingoneducationandearnings.InthenextsectionwepresentananalysisofdatafromthreedecennialCensusesthatestablishesthatseasonofbirthisindeedrelatedtoeducationalattainment.Remarkably,invirtuallyallofthebirthcohortsthatwehaveexamined,childrenborninthefirstquarteroftheyearhaveaslightlyloweraveragelevelofeducationthanchildrenbornlaterintheyear.SchooldistrictstypicallyrequireastudenttohaveturnedagesixbyJanuary1oftheyearinwhichheorsheentersschool(seeHEW[1959]).Therefore,studentsbornearlierintheyearenterschoolatanolderageandattainthelegaldropoutageatanearlierpointintheireducationalcareersthanstudentsbornlaterintheyear.Ifthefractionofstudentswhowanttodropoutpriortothelegaldropoutageisindependentofseasonofbirth,thentheobservedseasonalpatternineducationisconsistentwiththeviewthatcompulsoryschoolingconstrainssomestudentsbornlaterintheyeartostayinschoollonger.Twoadditionalpiecesofevidencelinktheseasonalpatternineducationtothecombinedeffectofageatschoolentryandcompulsoryschoolinglaws.First,theseasonalpatternineducationisnotevidentincollegegraduationrates,norisitevidentingraduateschoolcompletionrates.Becausecompulsoryschoolinglawsdonotcompelindividualstoattendschoolbeyondhighschool,thisevidencesupportsourhypothesisthattherelationshipbe-tweenyearsofschoolinganddateofbirthisentirelyduetocompulsoryschoolinglaws.Second,incomparingenrollmentratesoffifteen-andsixteen-yearoldsinstatesthathaveanagesixteenschoolingrequirementwithenrollmentratesinstatesthathaveanageseventeenschoolingrequirement,wefindagreaterdeclineintheenrollmentofsixteen-yearoldsinstatesthatpermitsixteen-yearoldstoleaveschoolthaninstatesthatcompelsixteen-yearoldstoattendschool.ThevarietyofevidencepresentedinSectionIestablishesthatcompulsoryschoolinglawsincreaseeducationalatta