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96()Vol.9No.6200911JournalofNorthwestA&FUniversity(SocialScienceEdition)Nov.2009Q3(,300072):Q,AQ,QA,,,A,,,;,;,(IPO);,;:Q;;;;:F276.6:A:1009-9107(2009)06-0060-072008617,(600031),(600031),20071016612420093132128,65%,200810281664,73%,Wind,1664,214,13%,2005998183,(PB)2(PE)14,,:(1);;,(2)30,;(3),(IPO),(4),,,,AWind,2007200820092010585.541339.196637.421213.211,1,A,,,,,13:2009205204:(1968-),,,,,20%Q,;A;1A(2009228)()6526.96()11924.60()148.13()4689.04()3094.77()1582.63(%)33.75()302.99(%)19.14:1969(JamasTobin)Q:,q,[1]40,:SummersHayashiQ[2,3]Fazzari[4];Hayashi&Inoue[5];BlundellQ[6]QFurstenbergQ[7];ChungPruittQ[8],,QA,Q,,,,Qq[9]AQ,Q,Q[10]Q[11]QAQ()Q(JamasTobin)1969Q,(0),(MV)(RC)Q,Q,Q=MV/RC,MV,RC,MPK,,r:r=MPKMV+dMVMV-(1)E(r)rk,,(1),:rk=E(MK)MV+dMVMV-(2)(2),MV:MV=0E[MPK(t)]e-(rk+)tdt(3)R,:RC=0E[MPK(t)]e-(R+)tdt(4),MPK,RC=MPK/(R+),MV=MPK/(rk+),Q:Q=R+rk+(5)(5)Q,,Q,Q1,,,;,,,,,,,Q,Q1166:Q,,,Q=1,,[12]Q,,,Q,Q(HoweandVogt,1996)(Lang,1989)(McGahan,1999;WernerfeltandMontgomery,1988)()AQQ,,,ChungPruitt(1994)Q,:Q=(MVE+PS+DEBT)TA(6):MVE,PS,DEBT,TA[8]QQChungPruitt(1994),97%,Q,(PE)(PB)AQ,ST,1063,ChungPruitt(6)wind,2006-2009,2006-2009Q(1),2006-2009Q(2)1,2006-20093Q0.73-3.41,20073.41,2008120.73,2,2009Q,57%Q1,120062009AQ:wind22006-2008AQ,%2006123120071231200812312009331Q[0,1]19618.4300.0075270.7446143.36(1,2]76371.7712912.1318417.3025323.80(2,3]878.1842940.351029.5912511.75(3,4]80.7531129.25111.03928.65(4,5]40.371059.8770.65555.17(5,6]20.18353.2950.47282.63(6,7]30.28191.7820.18171.59(7,8]00.0090.8400.0060.56(8,9]00.00121.1200.00100.94900.00141.3100.00161.501063100.001063100.001063100.001063100.001.622.550.731.331.021.451.131.26:wind26()9(),,,Q,,Q,Q(Q=1),,,,Q,:(1),0.5-1.3;(2)1;(3)0.7,,Q50%Q1,,,1,AQ2007,20082009,4,Q,Q,2009210.19,AQ1.3Q()Q,A200710,QA,,,,,,3Q(PB)(200936)(PB)Q200710-200931.520.815001.130.581.260.671.020.73DAX300.920.68CAC400.970.702250.900.671.090.741.170.851.080.89S&P/TSX1.050.81BOVESPA1.291.02SENSEX2.041.89MICEX1.631.37BOLSA1.260.961.220.89:bloomberg366:Q,,;(1),()A,,,A,A3,200936,Q0.89,(PB)1.22,A,,A,,A,,,,,,(),,,Q(),,,,Q,,,,,(),,,,,,,(),,,,,,,(),,,(),A,(),Q,46()9,Q,,,,Q()A,,1.,,,,;,2.,,,,,,,,,3.,(IPO),,,,IPO,4.,,,,,,5.,,,,,6.,,,,,,,:[1]JAMESTOBIN.Ageneralequilibriumapproachtomone2tarytheory[J].JournalofMoneyCreditandBanking,1969,1:15-29.[2]SUMMERS,LAWRENCE.TaxationandcorporateInvestment:Aq-theoryapproach[J].BrookingsPapersonEconomicActivity,1981,1:67-127.[3]HAYASHI,F.Tobinsmarginalqandaverageq:Aneoclas2sicalinterpretation[J].Econometrica,1982,50:13-224.[4]FAZZARI,S,HUBBARD,RG,PETERSEN,BC.Fi2nancingconstraintsandcorporateinvestment[J].Broo2kingPapersonEconomicActivity,1988,1:141-195.[5]HAYASHI,F,INOUE,T.Therelationbetweenfirmgrowthandqwithmultiplecapitalgoods:Theoryandevi2dencefrompaneldataonJapanesefirms[J].Econometri2ca,1991,59:732-754.[6]BLUNDELL,R,BOND,S,DEVEREUX,M,SCHIANTARELLI,F.InvestmentandTobinsQ:Evidencefromcompanypaneldata[J].JournalofEconometrics,1992,51:233-257.[7]FURSTENBERG,G.Coporateinvestment:Doesmarketvaluematterinaggregate?[J].BrokingPapersonEco2nomicActivity,1977,6:347-397.[8]CHUNG,KEEHANDSTEPHENPRUITT.Asimpleap2proximationofTobinQ[J].FinancialManagement,1994,23(3):70-74.566:Q[9].q?[J].,2006(12):146-154.[10],,.[J].,2008(4):3-8.[11].Q[J].,2008(10):72-77.[12].[M].:,2000.TobinQTheory,ReconstructionofValuationSystemandNewCharactersofMergerandAcquisitionZHANGDa2yong(SchoolofManagement,TianjinUniversity,Tianjin300072,China)Abstract:AccordingtotheTobinQratiotheory,thepapercalculatesthevalueofTobinsQofChinasShang2haiandShenzhenA2sharemarketinthecourseofthefullcirculation.Throughinternationalcomparison,itshowsthatitisinevitablethattheshareholdersofnon2tradableshareswillunderselllotsofsharesaftertheliftoftheban,be2causeitishighforTobinQofChina’sA2sharemarket.Asaresult,thepricingpowerofmarkethasbeenshiftedfromfinancialcapitaltoindustrialcapital.Hence,thevaluationsystemofAstockmarketwouldhavebeenfastreconstruc2ted,becauseoffullcirculation.Meanwhile,thenewbehaviorcharacteristicofM&Awouldhavecomeintobeingasthecompletecirculation.Finally,somepolicyrecommendationsareputforwardforstabilizationofthemarket,suchasim2provingthemarketmechanism,reducingexchangecostsandincreasingmarketactivity;encouragingcross2sharehold2ingsamonglistedcompaniesandmakingnoreducing;limitingstrictlytheactivitieswithmaliciouspurposeofswind2lingmoneywhichaffectsseriouslythestabilityofthemarket;controllingthespeedofinitialpublicofferings(IPO);encouragingmajorshareholderstoissueexchangeablebondstoeasethepressureofreduction;andraisingthepropor2tionoflong-termfundsuchassocialsecurityfundsandcorporatepensionfundsintothemarket.Keywords:TobinQ;pricingpower;valuation;completecirculation;mergerandacquisition66()9