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：2008-09-07；：2009-03-01：：1955—.100102：、、，，，2006，、，，、。，。：；；；：F562.5：A：1674－5590（2009）03－0041－07ChinaCivilAviationDomesticPassengerTransportDemandPriceElasticityResearchTIANJing，HUANWei，LIXiao-qun（CivilAviationManagementInstituteofChina，Beijing100102，China）AbstractAccordingtothepurposeoftravel，flightdistance，disposableincomeofurbanresidentandseasonalitytobuildaconceptualmodelofpassengerclassification.Andbasedontheeconomictheoryandeconometricmethods，theauthorestablishesthedomesticaviationpassengerdemandfunctionandthenusingChinaairlinesdatain2006toestimatethecoefficientofelasticityandstudythevariousfactorsmentionedaboveontheimpactofcivilaviationmarketsituationinChina.Studieshaveshownthatthedisposableincomeofurbanresidentsisthemostimportantimpactondomesticaviationpassengerdemand，thepriceshaveverydifferenteffectsondifferentcategoriesofpassengers.Demandelasticityofleisuretravelersisgreaterthantheoverallmarket.ApplyingeconomicsandeconometricstoChina′scivilaviationpassengermarketresearch，andthequantitativeanalysisofChina′scivilaviationpassengerdemandbehavioralcharacteristicsaretheinnovationfeaturesofthispaper.Keywordsdomesticaviationpassengerdemand；functionmodel；priceelasticity；empiricalanalysis。。。20072。、。。、。。27320096JOURNALOFCIVILAVIATIONUNIVERSITYOFCHINAVol.27No.3June200920096、、、Meta。。、[1]。。。。2000[2]。。、。。1、、。。1.1。。。1.2、。。。1.3。。。1[3]。1Fig.1Impactfactorsontravellingdecision-makingfordifferenttypesofpassenger、、、、、、、、、、、、、、、、、、、、、、、、422732。。200659%22.6%15.1%。[4]。。4。。33.11。。[5]D=a0+a1P+a2GDP+a3TD=a0Pa1GDPa2Ta3D=ea0+a1P+a2GDP+a3T。3.2、。1。。2“”。3。4。。。。5。。3.3Y=βPEpRErTEtDYPRTDEpErEt。3.4①②③④⑤⑥。3.5Y=βPEpRErTEtD，，：43200964βK=5N0.0595%。R2。R20.8R2R2=1-n-1n-k-1+kFF。T[6]。4。。。2006。40、、、、。93.8%。4.1Y①2006107②20061020。200610720062。。、、、。、。4.2P。、。、2006107、20061020。4.3R。4.4T。。4.5D。D=1D=0。55.11200610720061020N=557。2Y=e-15.720P-1.066R2.659T0.636DEp=-1.066。Er=2.659。Et=0.636。3F=2.21R2=0.010T=1.645F=44.038R2=0.242T1=-5.925T2=9.396T3=5.776T4=-6.730。5.212006107N=277。2Y=e-14.381P-0.976R2.387T0.635Ep=-0.976。44273Er=2.387。Et=0.635。3F=2.37R2=0.019T=1.645F=17.968R2=0.165T1=-3.899T2=6.013T3=4.0715.3120061020N=280。2Y=e-17.753P-1.185R2.951T0.643Ep=-1.185。Er=2.951。Et=0.643。3F=2.37R2=0.019T=1.645F=23.126R2=0.201T1=-4.550T2=7.279T3=4.128。5.4120061020、106N=279。2Y=e-25.835P-1.599R3.412T1.344EP=-1.599。Er=3.412。Et=1.344。3F=2.37R2=0.019T=1.645F=29.231R2=0.242T1=-5.478T2=6.749T3=7.070。5.51N=281。。20061020106、4101611019。21。3F=2.37R2=0.019T=1.6452。5.6。①②。20061020。11000km、1000km。23。1Tab.1DemandelasticityanalysisforbusinesstravelersEPERET106-1.5993.4121.3441016-1.2742.6610.9331019-1.2352.7490.7362Tab.2FunctionregressionstatisticaltestforbusinesstravelersmarketdemandFR2T1T2T32.270.0191.6451.6451.64510629.2310.242-5.4786.7497.070101621.5650.189-4.7026.1735.670101922.1850.194-4.7786.7894.740，，：3Tab.3FunctionregressionstatisticaltestfortravelersofdifferenttransportmileageEPERET1000km-1.8102.8590.7361000km-1.6703.0280.2821000km-1.4932.956452009611000kmN=131。21000kmN=149。31000kmN=149。31000km31000km。31000km1000km4。66.1-1.0661%1.066%0.713%1.420%、95%。6.2、、、。6.31%0.6%。6.4EP=-0.976。。EP=-1.185。。。。。6.5EP=-1.599。。。、、。50%-50%。。。。。6.6、4Tab.4DemandfunctionregressionstatisticaltestfortravelersofdifferenttransportmileageFR2T1T2T31000km2.370.0401.6451.6451.6451000km12.0300.22-3.9664.8882.9441000km2.370.0481.6451.6451.6451000km16.3820.253-4.3545.5811.3771000km2.6000.0311.6451.6451.6451000km23.4810.243-1.4932.95646273。6.7。77.1-1.066。1。。。2004。。。7.2。7.33。200649.0%377.2%3。2006107850-0.97620061020806-1.185。。7~9。。、。。[1]DAVIDWGILLENWILLIAMGMORRISONCHRISTOPHERSTE-WARD.PriceElasticityofDemandForPassengerAirTravelAMetaAnalysis-UniversityAmsterdam[D].AmsterdamUniversityAmstrdam12001.[2]《》[R].2000.[3]MARTIJNBRONSERICPELSPETERNIJKAMPetal.AirTravelDemandElasticityConceptIssuesandMesaurement[D].UniversityWaterlooCanada2002.[4]《2006》[R].2006.[5].[M].199837-48.[6].[M].200144-51.，，：47