探析波普尔对历史决定论的批判

20045()134No152004JournalofSichuanUniversity(SocialScienceEdition)SumNo1134[]2004-02-27[](0301004)[](1964-),,,;(1972-),,,,1,2(1.,410083;2.,100875)[],,[];;;[]F32[]A[]1006-0766(2004)05-0038-06,,:,[1](11),,,,,:,:(),:,,,historicaldeterminism,his2toricism1935,1957his2toricism,historicism,[2](2),histori2cismhistori2cism,,,:,,,,[2](1),,,:(1)(,);(2)();(3),;(4),,;(5),[2](12),,[2](2):,,,,,,,,[2](85),,:,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,[3](162),,,,,,,,,,,,,[4](171):,,,[4](171)3,9320045,:[5](207),,,,,[8](210),,,,,,,[2](58)[2](54),,,,[2](71),,[6](122),,,,(),:,[2](51),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,[2](46),,,,,,,,,,,,(),,,,,;,,[2](126),04()134:,,,,,[7](434),,,,,,,,,,[9](5),:,,,,,,,,,:,,,,,,[2](91),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,:,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,1420045,:[2](58),[2](60),,:,,,[2](64),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,;,,,,,,,[2](71):;,[2](123),,,[3](515),,,[3](516),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,24()134,[][1].[M].:,1988.[2].[M].,.:,1987.[3].[M].:,1986.[4].[M].:,1987.[5].[M].:,1984.[6]:42[M].:,1980.[7]:46[M].:,1980.[8]:33[M].:,1980.[9],.[M].:,1986.[10].[J].(),1997(11).[11],.[J].(),1997(5).[12].[J].,2001(8).[13].[J].(),2000(3).PoppersCriticismofHistoricismXUHong2wu1,TANYang2fang2(1.ZhongnanUniversity,HunanShangsha410083;2.SchoolofPoliticsandInternationalRelations,BeijingNormalUniversity,Beijing100875,China)Abstract:TheauthorprobesintothemainargumentsofPopperscriticismofhistoricismbystartingfromtheconceptofhistoricism,analyzesitsrationalfactorsbycombiningwithrealityatpresent,andfurtherexplainstherelationbetweencertain2tyandcontingency,therelationbetweenhistoricallawandtrend,therelationbetweenthewholeandthepart,andtherelationbetweenthedoctrineofnationalcentralizationofstatepowerandpersonalfreedomandright.Keywords:historicism;Popper;historicallaw;certaintyandcontingency(:)3420045,: