薄膜电池行业分析(东方证券)

——:20093zz2008zzzzz•••0.69zz2008zzzzz0100020003000400050006000700019992000200120022003200420052006200720080%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%MW20086.4GW60%0100200300400500600Q-cellSuntechpowerSharpFirstsolarKyoceraSolarWorldBaodingYingliGintechMotechSanyoNingboSolarSunPowerJASolarTrinaSolarSolarfunE-TonSolarBPsolarMitsubishiElectricErsolSolarSchottSolarRECIsofotonChinaSunergyCanandianSolarEvergreen2581821MW3723.5MW20085600MW134%100560010023928.44680.920.50.7400.8205.430010.52507.140012.83050.7400.8200.4200.613.30.4240.6140.140.36.50.2100.12.70.140.120.8481.5350.9501.9450.2100.382.71502.15047.5266020.950024.61375461100%2008%2007zz2008zzzzz1999-20070%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%199920002001200220032004200520062007monoc-Simultic-SiCdTeCISa-Si/µ-Siother19701980199020002010Yeara-Si:H,µc-Si:Ha-Si:H2.4%S-Wa-Si:Ha-SiGea-SiVHFµc-Si:H,µc-Si:Ha-Si/µc-Si:Ha-Si/µc-Si:Hµc-Si:H3040649818440189033%60%53%88%118%122%0100200300400500600700800900100020022003200420052006200720080%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%MW406.1151.311.16.8a-SiBangkokSolar120.5a-SiFujiElectricSystems1413a-SiMitsubishiHeavyIndustry15a-SiSinonar151CISWurthSolar218.2a-Si/uc-SiSharp255.8a-SiTrony4528a-SiKaneka4828a-SiUnitedSolar20060CdTeFirstSolar20072006zz2008zzzzz/CIGSCdTe1Evaporation)2sputter)1CVD2sputter)5TCOCIGS121/28.5-10.5%10-12%5-8%12Tandem121.45ev121.02-1.68ev121.1-1.7ev1m1m0.2-0.5mCdTeCIGS0%5%10%15%20%25%CIGSCdTezz2008zzzzzPage25„AasahiNSGAFGCTDCFTOFTO„TFT-LCDSharpChimeiAUOSamsungLG„1)FTDSNO22)—„„PPGPilkingtonNSG„3)EVA„„EVA360/200/Page28„SiH4PH3&TMBCH4&H2Ar&N2SiH4„SiH4RECGroupAirLiquideMEMC„SiH4SiH4SiH4LCD4)5)ZnOAl„HERAEUS60%zz2008zzzzzFirstSolar6.0%7.0%8.0%9.0%10.0%11.0%12.0%20071Q20072Q20073Q20074Q20081Q20082Q20083Q20084Q0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.6($/W)224FirstSolar20080.98/1/“”20120.65//201230%20150.711.2813%15%15%00.20.40.60.811.21.4CdTeCISa-Sizz2008zzzzz•——46.5MW200966.5%4201010%285MW•——AleoCIGS2008Aleo2009CIGS60MW•——