Nature--Realizing-China-s-urban-dream

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Chinaisurbanizingatanunprece-dentedrate.Itisperhapsthegreatesthuman-resettlementexperimentinhistory.Between1978and2012,thefractionofthenation’spopulationdwellingincitiesincreasedfrom17.9%to52.6%(see‘Urbanexpansion’).Ifthecurrenttrendholds,China’surbanpopulationcouldtop1 billionpeopleinthenexttwodecades.Theseareunchartedwaters,butChinahasaplan.InMarch,thegovernmentreleasedtheNationalNew-typeUrbanizationPlan,whichsetstargetsforChina’surbanpopula-tionfractiontoriseby1%ayeartoreach60%by2020.Theplaniscomprehensiveandambitious.Itcoversalmosteveryconceivableaspectofurbanization,fromrural–urbanmigrationandintegrationtothespatialdistributionofandlinkagesbetweencities;sustainabledevelopment;institutionalarrangements;andimplementation.Itsetsnumericalgoals(see‘Governmenttargets’)andasaguid-ingprincipleemphasizesasustainableandpeople-centredapproach,payingmoreattentiontowelfareandwell-being—asignificantandpositiveshiftfromthecur-renteconomicfocusonlanddevelopment.Italsoaimstorectifyexistingproblemsassoci-atedwiththerapidurbanizationinthepastthreedecades.Therightnationalstrategyisnecessary.Butitisnotsufficient.ItislocalpracticesthatwillmakeorbreakChina’surbanizationplan.GOVERNMENTGOALSPresidentXiJinpingandPremierLiKeqiangseesustainableurbanizationasapolicypri-orityforthreereasons.First,urbanizationandindustrializationarethetwoenginesofmodernizationandeconomicgrowth.High-incomecountriestypicallyhavehighurbanpopulationpro-portions—70–90%forcountriesintheOrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment.Bycomparison,China’surbanizationlagsbehinditsindustrializa-tion.ResearchshowsthaturbanizationdoespromoteeconomicgrowthinChina1,eventhoughthecausallinkbetweenthetwohasbeenquestioned2.Second,tokeepitseconomygrowing,Chinaneedstoshiftfromitscurrentreli-anceonexportsbyspurringdomesticdemand.Urbanizationenhancesdomesticconsumption:percapitaincomeinChinaismorethanthreetimeshigherinurbanthaninruralcommunities.Third,urbanizationcancatalyseregionaldevelopment.Withlessthan0.1 hectaresofarablelandperfarmer,ruralChinahaslittleroomtoboostincomegrowthbyexpand-ingagriculture.Urbanizationwillreducethepooragriculturalpopulationandthenum-berofsmallholderfarms,andopenuppos-sibilitiesforacceleratedruraldevelopmentthroughlarge-scale,modernizedfarmingpractices.Developmentisatthecoreoftheserationales,andthegovernmentaimstodoitinasustainableway.Buildingandoper-atinggrowingcitiesrequiresmaterialsandenergy,butthedemandforsomeofthesewillexceedthecountry’ssupplycapacity3.Anddauntingenvironmentalandsocialchallengescausedbypasturbanizationneedtobeavoided.Chinaaimstoguidethedevelopmentofurbanareasaccordingtotheirresourceandenvironmentalcarryingcapacity;improveland,waterandotherresourceuseefficiency;stabilizetheemploymentofmigratingworkers;andpromotegreenandlow-carbonurbanconstructionandopera-tion.Its12thFive-YearPlanfor2011–15alsoaimstoreduceconstructionlanduseperunitofgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)by30%,energyintensityby16%andcarbondioxideemissionintensityby17%.Thereis,ofcourse,acatch:iftheincomeofnewurbanresidentsmatchesthatofexistingones,theconsumptionthatwillfuelChina’seconomicgrowthwillpresentsustainabilitychallengestothecountryandotherpartsoftheworld.Forexample,theriseinCO2emis-sionsthatwouldresultifChina’shouseholdconsumptionpatternsconvergewithcurrentUSlevelscouldnotbeoffsetbyefficiencygainsalone4.Promotinglow-carbonlifestylesismentionedintheplanonlyinpassingandwithoutconcretemeasuresortargetsforhowtheymightbeachieved.POLICYCHALLENGESTolivetheurbandream,Chinafacesthreepolicychallenges:land,peopleandtheenvi-ronment.Inthepastdecade,theurbanbuilt-uplandareainChinahasgrownby78.5%—fasterthanitsurbanpopulation,whichgrewby46%.Therapidpaceoflandscapeurbani-zationisdrivenbyChinesecities’over-relianceonincomefromlandrelease1,whichcanamountto70%oftheirtotalrevenue.RealizingChina’surbandreamLocalimplementationandpublicscrutinywillmakeorbreakthegovernment’surbanizationstrategy,sayXuemeiBai,PeijunShiandYansuiLiu.DevelopmentinthecityofJiangyin,whichliesclosetotheYangtzeRivernearChina’seastcoast.KACPERKOWALSKI/PANOSPICTURES158|NATURE|VOL509|8MAY2014COMMENT©2014MacmillanPublishersLimited.AllrightsreservedLand-releaseincomeincreasedbyafactorofsixbetween2005and2011.Abouthalfofurbangrowthhasbeenattheexpenseofarableland,raisingconcernsaboutfoodsecurity.Tocurbthelossofagriculturalland,thecentralgovernmenthasintroducedstrictregulations,mandatingthatcitiesoffsetdevelopedlandbysecuringthesameamountofarablelandelsewhereorreducingtheareaoflandusedforruralhousing.Thesepolicieshavehadlimitedsuccess,andinsomecases,adverseconsequences.Inadesperatesearchfornon-agriculturallandtodevelop,citieshavereclaimedwetlandsandlakesandconvertedpristinemoun-tains.Atthesametime,developedlandisnotbeingusedefficiently—attentionquicklyshiftstothenextdevelopmentproject.Theflowofpeoplefromruralcommu-nitiestocitiesraisesproblems.Migratingpeasantworkers,currentlyestimatedat250 million,arepreventedfromintegratingintourbancommunitiesbythehouseholdregistrationsystem.Thisrestrictstheofficialchangingofcitizens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