影响我国旅游业发展的相关因素

西安财经学院行知学院课程论文论文题目:影响我国旅游业发展的相关因素分院：经济与统计分院专业班级：经统1501班学生姓名：姜文钰学号：1501020147指导教师：毛雪莲完成日期：2017年12月9日影响我国旅游业发展的相关因素摘要随着经济发展和生活水平的提高，人们对精神文化的需求进一步上升，旅游成为人们的基本生活方式，是人们使用休闲时间的最佳选择之一。其次，以新兴国家为代表的旅游目的地不断出现，世界区域重心正向东方转移。中国正是这一趋势的代表，根据世界旅游组织统计，从国际游客接待量上看，2004年以来，中国成为居法国、美国、西班牙之后的全球第四大旅游目的地国家，其中2010-2012年中国一度超过西班牙，位列全球第三大旅游目的地国家。第三，个性化、自由化成为新的趋势，使传统观光旅游、度假旅游已不能满足旅游者的需求，各种内容丰富、新颖独特的旅游方式和旅游项目应运而生。本文通过对中国旅游业市场收入的影响因素的分析、检验，并对各因素的影响因素程度大小进行比较，最终建立适合的回归模型，对其做统计和经济意义上的分析，并根据结果提出建议。关键词：国内旅游业Eviews模型旅游收入多重共线性目录绪论································································································3（一）问题的提出及研究意义····························································41．问题的提出··········································································42．研究意义·············································································4（二）研究思路··············································································4一、···································································································5（一）··································································错误!未定义书签。（二）··································································错误!未定义书签。二、西部地区城乡居民收入分配差距成因··························错误!未定义书签。三、西部地区城乡居民收入差距实证分析··························错误!未定义书签。（一）模型介绍··············································································6（二）变量的选取···········································································71．西部地区城乡居民收入差距的衡量····················错误!未定义书签。2．城市化水平的衡量·········································错误!未定义书签。3．就业结构的衡量············································错误!未定义书签。4．教育水平差异的衡量······································错误!未定义书签。（三）数据的收集···················································错误!未定义书签。（四）模型的设定和估计··········································错误!未定义书签。1．散点图分析··················································错误!未定义书签。2．回归分析结果···············································错误!未定义书签。四、具体对策及建议·····················································错误!未定义书签。（一）··································································错误!未定义书签。（二）··································································错误!未定义书签。（三）··································································错误!未定义书签。（四）··································································错误!未定义书签。结论·········································································错误!未定义书签。参考文献·····································································错误!未定义书签。绪论（一）问题的提出及研究意义1．问题的提出旅游业一般分为国际旅游业和国内旅游业。国内旅游业是为国内旅游者服务的一系列相关的行业。改革开放以来，我国的旅游业呈现蓬勃的发展趋势，旅游景点吸引着来自四面八方的人。随着经济的发展和人民生活水平的进一步提高，闲暇时间的增多，带薪假期的普遍实行。由于旅游业条件的改观，人民的旅游热情将进一步焕发，人民对旅游业消费的需求将进一步上升，国内旅游业在国民经济中的地位和作用越来越重要。因此，对我国旅游业发展的相关因素的分析就显得尤为重要。2．研究意义随着社会的发展，旅游业已成为全球经济中发展中势头最强劲和规模最大的产业之一，日益凸显它在国民经济中的重要地位。旅游业的发展以整个国民经济发展水平为基础并受其制约，同时又直接或间接地促进国民经济有关部门的发展。旅游业的发展经济、社会效益明显，能够促进促进我国产业结构调整和优化，为社会提供大量就业机会，提高人们的物质文化生活水平，在增进国际交流的同时促进招商引资，加快社会主义新农村建设步伐，以及促进经济与环境和社会的协调发展。（二）研究思路本文主要研究影响我国旅游业发展的相关因素，内容涉及经济学，统计学，计量经济学等多个学科领域。从统计的角度，运用统计分析软件，建立合适的模型，分析影响旅游业发展的因素，得出相应的结论，并提出相应的政策和建议，实现经济的快速发展。第一部分：绪论。提出了本文要研究的问题及其现实研究意义，凸显本文的研究价值。第二部分：以统计调查数据为依据,针对我国旅游业发展现状进行阐述，并讨论了不同因素对旅游业发展的影响问题。第三部分：针对我国经济发展现状，分析影响旅游业发展的相关因素的成因。第四部分：通过相关数据、指标建立模型进行模型，对影响旅游业发展的相关因素进行实证分析，从而得出结论。第五部分：根据上述研究，对影响旅游业发展的相关因素提出建议和对策。一、收集数据为估计模型参数，收集旅游事业发展所处的1994-2016年阶段的统计数据，如图所示。表2-1我国1994-2016年旅游业相关数据统计表年份国内旅游收入（亿元）国内旅游人数（亿人）入境旅游人数（万人）城镇居民人均旅游花费（元）农村居民人均旅游花费（元）19941023.55.244368.4414.754.919951375.76.294638.7464.061.519961638.46.405112.8534.170.519972112.76.445758.8599.8145.719982391.26.956347.8607.0197.019992831.97.197279.56614.8249.520003175.57.448344.39678.6226.620013522.47.848901.29708.3212.720023878.48.789790.83739.7209.120033442.38.709166.21684.9200.020044710.711.0210903.82731.8210.220055285.912.1212029.23737.1227.620066229.713.9412494.21766.4221.920077770.616.1013187.33906.9222.520088749.317.1213002.74849.4275.3200910183.719.0212647.59801.1295.3201012579.821.0313376.22883.0306.0201119305.426.4113542.35877.8471.4201222706.2229.5713240.53914.5491.0201326276.1232.6212907.78946.6518.9201430311.8736.1112849.83975.4540.2201534195.140.0013382985.5554.220163940044.40138001009.1576.4资料来源：根据《中国旅游业旅游公报》整理二、计量经济模型的建立（一）模型介绍回归分析是用来研究一个变量（被解释变量Explainedvariable）与另一个或多个变量（解释变量Explanatoryvariable）之间的数量关系。其用意在于通过解释变量的已知或设定值去估计或预测被解释变量的总体均值。总体回归模型用数学形式表示为：Yi=β1+β2X2+β3X3+β4X4+β5X5+ui（2-1）多元线性回归模型研究因变量Y与多个自变量X之间的关系，在进行回归分析时最为广泛的方法是普通最小二乘法（ordinaryleastsquares，OLS）,所谓最小二乘法就是选择参数b0，b1，…bk，使得全部观察值的残差平方和最小，其原理就是所选样本回归函数是的所有Y的估计值与真实值差的平方和为最小。用数学形式表示为：min∑ei2=∑(Yi-)2（3-2）为了对回归估计进行有效地解释，就必须对随即扰动项和解释变量进行科学的抽象即假定，多元线性回归模型的基本假定有以下几个方面：1．零均值假定E(ui)=0(i=1，2，…，n)2．同方差假定Var(ui)=E(ui2)=σ2(i=1，2，…，n)3．无自相关假定Cov(ui，uj)=E(uiuj)=0i≠j(i，j=1，2，…，n)4．解释变量与扰动项不相关假定Cov(Xi，ui)=0(i=1，2，…，n)5．解释变量之间不存在线性相关关系6．为了假设检验，假定随机项误差服从均值ui为零，方差为σ2的正态分布。即ui～N(0，σ2)iYˆiYˆ（二）变量的选取Y—国内旅游收入（亿元）C（1）—待定参数X2—国内旅游人数（亿人）X3—入境旅游人数（万人）X4—城镇居民人均旅游花费（元）X5—农村人均旅游花费（元）U—随机扰动项