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NPP李永华1) 高阳华1) 韩逢庆1) 向鸣2) 唐云辉2) 何永坤2) 1)(,401147) 2)(,401147) 341959—200143,Thornth-waiteMemoriae,、NPP(),EOFMHF、NPP,Thornth-waiteMemoriae、NPP,NPP。:、NPP,,,,NPP,,NPP;,NPP,10,,NPP,;“”NPP,“”NPP,50NPP,2030。:;NPP; ,、、,。IPCC,0.6±0.2℃[1],。,,,,,。,[2-9],,。,,,,,、,,NPP(),。1 34(1)1959—200143,,[10],。(NPP),,,、、[11]。,(Lieth)Thornth-waiteMemoriae,、NPP[12-13]:pv=30000(1-e-0.000956(v-20))(1)18120072 JOURNALOFAPPLIEDMETEOROLOGICALSCIENCE Vol.18,No.1February2007“”(2004-8770)。2005-08-08,2006-06-02。(1),pvNPP(:kg·hm-2·a-1),v(:mm),v=1.05R1+(1.05R/l)2,R(:mm),l(:mm),t(:℃),l=300+25t+0.05t3 ,,。pv,EOF,MHF[14-16],。1 34Table1 Distributionof34observationstationsinChongqing106°28′E29°35′N106°27′E29°51′N106°56′E28°57′N107°04′E29°50′N106°31′E29°23′N106°39′E29°01′N106°38′E29°43′N106°15′E29°17′N106°17′E29°58′N105°50′E30°11′N106°03′E29°51′N105°53′E29°22′N105°42′E29°42′N105°36′E29°25′N106°14′E29°35′N108°24′E30°46′N108°02′E30°18′N107°48′E30°41′N108°26′E31°12′N108°54′E30°58′N109°30′E31°03′N109°52′E31°04′N109°37′E31°24′N108°40′E31°57′N107°25′E29°45′N107°21′E30°20′N107°05′E29°09′N107°41′E29°52′N108°07′E30°00′N107°45′E29°19′N108°10′E29°18′N108°47′E29°32′N108°46′E28°50′N108°59′E28°27′N2 、NPP2.1 1341959—200143EOF(53%)。1a,,,。1b,,2070,,90,,90,。,,7090、、[17-21],[17-20]。1 1959—2001EOF(a)(b)(,5)Fig.1 The1steigenvectorofEOFanalyses(a)andrelevanttimecoefficient(b)ofannualmeantemperaturein1959—2001ofChongqing(dashedlineislinetrend,thicksolidlineis5termpolynomialfittingcurve)74 18 2.2 2341959—200143EOF(47%),2a,,,,。2b,,2060,,80,,8090,,90,。,。2 1959—2001EOF(a)(b)(1)Fig.2 The1steigenvectorofEOFanalyses(a)andrelevanttimecoefficient(b)ofannualprecipitationin1959—2001ofChongqing(othersasinFig.1)2.3 NPP3341959—200143NPPEOF(48%)。3a,NPP,,。3b,NPP,2060,NPP,70,NPP,8090,NPP,90,。,NPP。3 1959—2001NPPEOF(a)(b)(1)Fig.3 The1steigenvectorofEOFanalyses(a)andrelevanttimecoefficient(b)ofNPPin1959—2001ofChongqing(othersasinFig.1)75 1 :NPP 3 、NPP3.1 TEOF1、NPP,、NPP,,,,。EOF(TEOF1)。 4、NPPEOF(TEOF1)。4,,,NPP,NPP,0.001(0.47),TEOF1、NPP,,TEOF1,4 (a)、(b)NPP(c) TEOF1 Fig.4 Thefiguresofcorrelationcoefficients betweenrelevantTEOF1andannualmean temperature(a)orprecipitation(b)and NPP(c)seriesinChongqing 。3.2 、NPP、NPPEOF:-0.31,0.005(0.29),,,。NPP,-0.06;NPP,0.95,0.001(0.47)。、NPP,MHF。 5MHF20、103、NPP。5,(20),、NPP,,76 18 NPP,,1977,NPP19831987;(10),NPP,,;(3),NPP,;,1959—2001,11,NPP,2,,NPP。5 20a(a),10a(b)3a(c)、NPP(d)Fig.5 Theairtemperature,precipitationandNPPchangetendencieson20a(a),10a(b)and3a(c)timescalesandtheirwaveletvariances(d)4 NPP10(1992—2001)34、,49,-3℃,-2℃,-1℃,0℃,1℃,2℃,3℃,-30%,-20%,-10%,0,10%,20%,30%,(1)NPP2。2 NPP(:%)Table2 PercentagechangeoftheNPPunderthechangingconditionsoftheannualmeantemperatureandprecipitationinChongqing(unit:%)/℃-30%-20%-10%010%20%30%3-7.5-1.33.88.011.514.416.92-9.0-3.21.65.58.711.413.61-10.7-5.2-0.82.85.88.210.30-12.5-7.4-3.302.74.96.8-1-14.5-9.7-6.0-2.9-0.51.53.2-2-16.5-12.2-8.7-6.0-3.8-2.0-0.5-3-18.7-14.7-11.6-9.1-7.2-5.6-4.3 2,NPP,NPP。2℃-30%～30%,NPP;20%-3～3℃,NPP。,“”NPP,“”NPP,“”NPP77 1 :NPP 11.2%,“”NPP12.5%。[22],NPP3。3 NPPTable3 TheclimaticpredictionresultsinthefutureandthepossibleincreaseextentoftheNPPinChongqing/℃20100.1～0.40～10%0.3%～3.9%20300.8～1.216%～25%6.7%～10.0%20501.6～2.00～9%4.4%～8.4% 3,2010,,NPP0.3%～3.9%;2030,,NPP6.7%～10.0%;2050,,,NPP4.4%～8.4%。,50“”,NPP,2030。5 1959—2001NPP,:1)、NPP。1959—2001,,,NPP,,NPP。2)(20),、NPP,,(10)(3),NPP,;1959—2001,11,NPP,2,,NPP。3)NPP,NPP。“”NPP,“”NPP,“”NPP11.2%,“”NPP12.5%。4),2010NPP0.3%～3.9%;2030NPP6.7%～10.0%;2050,NPP4.4%～8.4%。NPP,2030。[1] IPCC.EmissionsScenarios:ASpecialReportofWorkingGroupIIIoftheIntergovernmentalPanelsonClimateChange.Cam-bridge:CambridgeUniversityPress,2000.[2] DavidBL,GregoryPA.ClimateandmanagementcontributionstorecenttrendsinUSagriculturalyields.Science,2003,299(14):1032-1033.[3] ReillyJ,TubieudF,Mccar1B.USagricultureandclimatechange:newresults.ClimaticChange,2003,57(1):43-49.[4] PittockAB,NixHA.TheeffectofchangeclimateonAustralianbiomicsproduction-Apreliminarystudy.ClimaticChange,1986,8(3):243-255.[5] ,..,1993,52(2):209-216.[6] ,..,1995,6():19-25.[7] ..,1996,54(4):484-492.[8] ,..,2004,30(8):49-53.[9] ,..,1997,19(6):1-9.[10] ,,,..:,1984:491-506.[11] ,..:,1991:78-81.[12] ,..,2003,26(4):504-515.[13] ,,,..,2005,23(2):202-208.[14] ,,.EOF.,1989,13(3):289-295.[15] NorthGR,BellT,CahalanR,etal.Samplingerrorsintheesti-mationofempiricalorthogonalfunction.MonWeaRev,1982,110:699-706.[16] ,,..,2003,22(2):173-178.[17] ,,,..,2004,15(2):252-256.[18] ZhouXiuji,ChenLongxun,LiWeiliang,etal.Environmentand78 18 climatechangeinChina.AnnualReport(1991—1995),1996:10-20.[19] ChenLongxun,ShaoYongning,DongMin,etal.Preliminaryanalysisofclimaticvariationduringthelast39yearsinChina.AdvAtmosSci,1991,8:279-288.[20] ...:,1990:37-50.[21] ..:,2001:80-158.[22] ,.()———.:,2002:38-41.FeaturesofAnnualTemperatureandPrecipitationVarietywiththeEffectsonNPPinChongqi