突发事件的不同演化模式

21320126JOURNALOFNATURALDISASTERSVol．21No．3Jun．20122010－05－122010－12－1070771016200900411100101964－、[e-mail]1004－4574201203－0001－06116024。、、、44。。C931．2AResearchondifferentevolutionmodelsofemergencyRONGLiliZHANGJiyongInstituteofSystemsEngineeringDalianUniversityofTechnologyDalian116024ChinaAbstractEmergenteventsandthechainreactioncausedbythemusuallyresultinsignificantcasualtiesandproper-tylosses．Hereindifferentemergencyevolutionmodelswerestudiedfromthesystematicperspectivetofindoutcommoncharactersandcorrelationsoffourvariousemergencyevents．Anacademicframeworkwithfourhierar-chiesi．e．singleeventeventchaineventnetworkandeventsuper-networkwereproposed．Correspondingde-tailanalysiswasconducted．Theeffectivenessoftheframeworkwasverifiedthrougharealcase．Thispapercanprovideareferencetodisasterpreventionandearlywarning．KeywordsemergencyevolutionchainreactionmacroearlywarningdisasterpreventionandreductionSARS、、、。、。1。、、、2－3。、、。19874。5、。6、。7－821、。DirkHel-bingd9－10、、、。11－13。、、、14－151617。4。1、、、、、14Fig．1Four-hierarchiesevolutionmodelofemergency、。、、。、、、1。4、、。12－4。1．1、。《》、、、。．gov．cn18、1《》、《》、《》。18、1920、21。、、、、、。1．2。1987·2·34。5。13。。。、、。22、23、24。、、16。、。。。。。1．3。。。、、、、、。、、、。25、26、27、28。。。4、－、、7、295、6－7DirkHelbingd、、、8－9。。。。。1．4、。。。·3·212Fig．2Super-networkevolutionmodelofemergency。2。、、30。2EFREiFiRiEFR。。。。。2200811021、、21212941661516．5。。。3。。4。3Fig．3Structuremodelofchainreactioninsnowstorm4Fig．4Super-networkmodelofsnowstorminsouthChina3、、。3。3、441、、、、、、、。2、·4·331→→→→→→→→→→→→。3、、、5。5Fig．5DestructionandchainreactioncausedbyasnowstorminsouthChina4。、、。、、、、、、、。、、、、、、19、、、、、、、、、、、、、、、、、。4。、、。3、、、、。。4。、、、、、。。1．J．2004615－16．SHANChunchang．EstablishasoundemergencyresponseplanJ．DisasterReductioninChina2004615－16．inChinese2．J．2007271－76．FANWeicheng．AdvisementandsuggestiontoscientificproblemsofemergencymanagementforpublicincidentsJ．BulletinofNationalNaturalScienceFoundationofChina2007271－76．inChinese3．J．20074505－505．YANGLiexunDENGYunfeng．ScientificproblemsofemergencymanagementJ．ProgressinNaturalScience20074505－505．inChi-nese4．J．19872226－33．GUOZengjianQINBaoyan．BriefdiscussionondisasterphysicsJ．JournalofCatastrophology19872225－33．inChinese5．J．1994931－6．WENChuanjia．OnatmosphericdisasterchainJ．JournalofCatastrophology1994931－6．inChinese6．M．2006．XIAOShengxie．CatastropheChainTheoryandApplicationM．BeijingSciencePress2006．inChinese7．J．20051461－7．·5·21SHIPeijun．TheoryandpracticeondisastersystemresearchinafourthtimeJ．JournalofNaturalDisasters20051461－7．inChinese8．J．20021181－9．SHIPeijun．TheoryondisasterscienceanddisasterdynamicsJ．JournalofNaturalDisasters20021181－9．inChinese9DirkHelbingHendrikAmmoserChristionKuknert．DisastersasExtremeEventsandtheimportanceofNetworksforDisasterResponseManage-mentM．DisasterManagementandNetworksSpringerBerlinHeidelberg2006．10DirkHelbingChristianKuhnert．AssessinginteractionnetworkswithapplicationstocatastrophedynamicsanddisastermanagementJ．PhysicaAStatisticalMechanicsandItsApplications20033283/4584－606．11．J．20051468－14．HUANGChongfu．AtrapezoidframeworkforintegratedriskmanagementJ．JournalofNaturalDisasters20051468－14．inChinese12．J．20041329－15．HUANGChongfuZHANGJunxiangChenZhifenetal．TowardanewkindofnaturaldisasterriskzoningmapJ．JournalofNaturalDisas-ters20041329－15．inChinese13．J．2007555－58．CAOShugangWANGYanzhaoWANGMingchaoetal．Studyofdisasterspreventionmanagementandpre－warninginformationsystembasedonmulti－disasterchainJ．JournalofSafetyScienceandTechnology2007555－58．inChinese14．J．20065710－713．ZHUJiangbinWANGChaoFENGBin．MicrocosmicresearchonthemechanismofdiffusionofcitysignificantcontingenciesJ．JournalofWuhanUniversityofTechnologySocialSciencesEdition20065710－713．inChinese15．J．20023109－114．GAORuxiLUOShougui．AnapproachtosyntheticmanagementmodelofdisastersandaccidentsinlargecitiesJ．ChinaSoftScience20023109－114．inChinese16．“”J．2006224198－203．MENGKaizhongWANGBin．Inspirationfrom“Jihuaexplosion”tolayingtheemergencyplanforpollutionaccidentsJ．EnergyResearchandInformation2006224198－203．inChinese17．20081J．2008663405－422．WANGDonghaiLIUChongjianLIUYingetal．ApreliminaryanalysisoffeaturesandcausesofthesnowstormeventoverthesouthernChinainJanuary2008J．ActaMeteorologicaSinica2008663405－422．inChinese18．J．200817149－53．LIMinghuiZHENGWanmoCHENQiguo．DevelopmentcharacteristicofgeologicalhazardinDanbaCountyanditscausediscussionJ．Jour-nalofNaturalDisasters200817149－53．inChinese19．J．200615179－85．CHENZhifenCHENJinHUANGChongfuetal．Fireriskassessmentindexsystemforlarge－scalepublicplacesJ．JournalofNaturalDisas-ters200615179－85．inChinese20BlundenJAnejaVPOvertonJH．Modelinghydrogensulfideemissionsacrossthegas－liquidinterfaceofananaerobicswinewastetreatmentstoragesystemJ．AtmosphericEnvironment200842225602－5611．21FauskeHK．EmergencyreliefsystemdesignforrunawaychemicalreactionextensionoftheDIERSmethodologyJ．ChemicalEngineeringRe-search＆Design1989672199－202．22．J．20041351－9．NIJinrenLIXiuxiaXUEAnetal．SedimentdisasterchainanditsapplicationstointerpretationofdisasterprocesscharacteristicsrelatedtosedimenttransportJ．JournalofNaturalDisasters20041351－9inChin