管理学双语(整理版)PPT04-Decision-making

FoundationsofDecisionMakingChapter04Management1–16–2LEARNINGOUTLINEFollowthisLearningOutlineasyoureadandstudythischapter.TheDecision-MakingProcessDefinedecisionanddecision-makingprocess.Describetheeightstepsinthedecision-makingprocess.TheManagerasDecisionMakerDiscusstheassumptionsofrationaldecisionmaking.Describetheconceptsofboundedrationality,satisficing,andescalationofcommitment.Explainwhatintuitionisandhowitaffectsdecisionmaking.Contrastprogrammedandnonprogrammeddecisions.6–3LEARNINGOUTLINE(cont’d)FollowthisLearningOutlineasyoureadandstudythischapter.TheManagerasDecisionMaker(cont’d)Contrastthethreedecision-makingconditions.Explainmaximax,maximin,andminimaxdecisionchoiceapproaches.Describethefourdecisionmakingstyles.Discussthetwelvedecision-makingbiasesmanagersmayexhibit.Describehowmanagercandealwiththenegativeeffectsofdecisionerrorsandbiases.Explainthemanagerialdecision-makingmodel.6–4LEARNINGOUTLINE(cont’d)FollowthisLearningOutlineasyoureadandstudythischapter.DecisionMakingforToday’sWorldExplainhowmanagerscanmakeeffectivedecisionsintoday’sworld.Listsixcharacteristicsofaneffectivedecision-makingprocess.Describethefivehabitsofhighlyreliableorganizations.6–5DecisionMaking•DecisionMakingachoicefromtwoormorealternatives.•TheDecision-MakingProcessIdentifyingaproblemanddecisioncriteriaandallocatingweightstothecriteria.Developing,analyzing,andselectinganalternativethatcanresolvetheproblem.Implementingtheselectedalternative.Evaluatingthedecision’seffectiveness.6–6Exhibit6.1TheDecision-MakingProcess6–7Step1:IdentifyingtheProblem•ProblemAdiscrepancybetweenanexistinganddesiredstateofaffairs.•CharacteristicsofProblemsAproblembecomesaproblemwhenamanagerbecomesawareofit.Thereispressuretosolvetheproblem.Themanagermusthavetheauthority,information,orresourcesneededtosolvetheproblem.6–8Step2:IdentifyingDecisionCriteria•Decisioncriteriaarefactorsthatareimportant(relevant)toresolvingtheproblem.Coststhatwillbeincurred(investmentsrequired)Riskslikelytobeencountered(chanceoffailure)Outcomesthataredesired(growthofthefirm)Step3:AllocatingWeightstotheCriteria•Decisioncriteriaarenotofequalimportance:Assigningaweighttoeachitemplacestheitemsinthecorrectpriorityorderoftheirimportanceinthedecisionmakingprocess.6–9Exhibit6.2CriteriaandWeightsforFranchiseDecisionCriterionWeightStart-upcosts10Franchisorsupport8Financialqualifications6Opengeographicallocations4Franchisorhistory36–10Step4:DevelopingAlternatives•IdentifyingviablealternativesAlternativesarelisted(withoutevaluation)thatcanresolvetheproblem.Step5:AnalyzingAlternatives•Appraisingeachalternative’sstrengthsandweaknessesAnalternative’sappraisalisbasedonitsabilitytoresolvetheissuesidentifiedinsteps2and3.6–11Step6:SelectinganAlternative•ChoosingthebestalternativeThealternativewiththehighesttotalweightischosen.Step7:ImplementingtheDecision•Puttingthechosenalternativeintoaction.Conveyingthedecisiontoandgainingcommitmentfromthosewhowillcarryoutthedecision.6–12Exhibit6.3AssessedValuesofFranchiseOpportunitiesUsingDecisionCriteriaStart-UpFranchiseFinancialOpenFranchisorCostsSupportQualificationsLocationsHistoryFranchiseCurvesForWomen1031085QuiznosSandwiches87787Jani-King8571010Jackson-HewittTaxService87787GNCVitaminsandNutritionalSupplements78787RadioShack836108Chem-DryCarpetCleaning107867McDonald’s41048106–13Exhibit6.4EvaluationofFranchiseAlternativesAgainstWeightedCriteriaStart-UpFranchiseFinancialOpenFranchisorCostsSupportQualificationsLocationsHistoryTotalFranchiseCurvesForWomen10024603215231QuiznosSandwiches8056423221231Jani-King8040424030232Jackson-HewittTaxService8056423221231GNCVitaminsandNutritionalSupplements7064423221229RadioShack8024364024204Chem-DryCarpet10056482421249McDonald’s40802432302066–14Step8:EvaluatingtheDecision’sEffectiveness•Thesoundnessofthedecisionisjudgedbyitsoutcomes.Howeffectivelywastheproblemresolvedbyoutcomesresultingfromthechosenalternatives?Iftheproblemwasnotresolved,whatwentwrong?6–15MakingDecisions•RationalityManagersmakeconsistent,value-maximizingchoiceswithspecifiedconstraints.Assumptionsarethatdecisionmakers:Areperfectlyrational,fullyobjective,andlogical.Havecarefullydefinedtheproblemandidentifiedallviablealternatives.HaveaclearandspecificgoalWillselectthealternativethatmaximizesoutcomesintheorganization’sinterestsratherthanintheirpersonalinterests.6–16Exhibit6.6AssumptionsofRationality6–17MakingDecisions(cont’d)•BoundedRationalityManagersmakedecisionsrationally,butarelimited(bounded)bytheirabilitytoprocessinformation.Assumptionsarethatdecisionmakers:WillnotseekoutorhaveknowledgeofallalternativesWillsatisfice—choosethefirstalternativeencounteredthatsatisfactorilysolvestheproblem—ratherthanmaximizetheoutcomeoftheirdecisionbyconsideringallalternativesandchoosingthebest.6–18InfluencesonDecisionMaking•EscalationofCommitmentIncreasingorcontinuingacommitmenttopreviousdecisiondespitemountingevidencethatthedecisionmayhavebeenwrong.•TheRoleofIntuitionIntuitivedecisionmakingMakingdecisionsonthebasisofexperience,f