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201011[],,,,,,,,[];;[]F062.9[]A[]1674-8298(2010)0120029209[]2009-11-15[],,,;,;,,(,2004),,,,,,,;,,(Dixit2Stigl2ize,1977),,,(,,2008)Schumpeter(1942),AghionHowitt(1992),,,,,,AghionHowitt(1992),,,,,:,;,,,9211,M2C;,AghionHowitt(1992),:,:,;,;,,M,NR,r,r0,M;M,:y=AF(x)(2.1)F0,F0,y,x,A,,,:x=L(2.2)L,,(n,R)(,)n,,,,:(0,R)=0(,,R,(n,R)=n),0tt+1t=0,1K,tnt,,(n1,R),A,A1,:At=A0t(t=0,1,WK)(2.3),A021,xtt,(2.2),xtpt:pt=AtF(xt)(2.4),xt,,[AtF(xt)-wt]xt,At,wt,,:(x)F(x)+xF(x)(2.5)03,twt/At,,;,:x,(x)0,limx0(x)=,limx(x)=0,t,,xt,:t=(x)(2.6)xt=x(t)(2.7),x:t=At(t)(2.8),()-(x())2F(x())xt,3.,,z,s,(z,s),zs,:(z,s)Vt+1-wtz-wsts(2.9),Vt+1t+1,wst,R,Kuhn2Tucker:wt(nt)Vt+1,nt0,(2.10)(nt)(nt,R),ntt:(0)=0,n0,(n)0,(n)0(2.11)Vt+1t+1t+1,(nt+1):Vt+1=t+1r+(nt+1)(2.12):,,,,,,(2.6),(2.8),(2.11),(2.12)N=nt+xt:(N-nt)(nt)((N-nt+1))r+(nt+1),n0,(3.1)tt+1,t+1t,:nt=(nt+1)(3.2),:[0,N]R+c(nt),b(nt+1),:13c(nt)(N-nt)(nt)(3.3)b(nt)((N-nt+1))r+(nt+1)(3.4),c,b,ntc(nt)9c(nt)9nt=-(N-nt)(nt)-(N-nt)(nt)(r+(nt))2(3.5)9b(nt+1)9nt+1=-((N-nt+1))(N-nt+1)(r+(nt+1))-((N-nt+1))(nt+1)(r+(nt+1))20(3.6)0,0,0,0c(0)b(0),(nt+1)[0,N),n^c(0)b(0),,0(perfectforesightequilibrium,PFE)(3.2){nt}0,t0,n0{n0,n1,n2,}PFEPFE,cb,TheCobwebTheorem,,1,2,31:11b(n^)+c(n^)0,,n0=(n1),n1=(n2),n2=(n3),,limn=n^,,,n^=(n^),(N-n^)(n^)=((N-n^))r+(n^)(3.7)t:yt=AtF(N-n^),At=At-1(3.8)23yt+1=yt,,lny()lny0=lnA0+lnF(N-n^),ln,{1,2,3,WK}(n^),,,,+1,:lny(+1)=lny()+()(=0,1,WK)(3.9)()lny+1:(0)ln,(1)ln,(n^),lny(+1)=lny()+()=lny()+(n^)ln+e(),=0,1,WK,(3.10)e()()-(n^)lne(),E(e())=0,vare()(n^)(ln)(3.11),(AverageGrowthRate):AGR=E(lny(+1)-lny())=E((n^)ln+e())=(n^)ln(3.12),21b(n^)+c(n^)=0,n1=(n2),n2=(n1),,,,:(N-nt)(nt)=((N-nt+1))r+(nt+1),(N-nt+1)(nt+1)=((N-nt))r+(nt)(3.13)2:33yt=AtF(N-nt),:,y2i=A2iF(N-n2i),y2i+1=A2i+1F(N-n2i+1)y2i+1=1y2i,y2i+2=2y2i+1{n1,n2,n1,n2,},lny()lny0=lnA0+lnF(N-n^),ln1,(n1);ln2,(n2),=2,=2+1,=0,1,2,,,,,,,22+1,2+12+2,:,lny(2+1)=lny(2)+(),=2+1,=0,1,WK()ln122+1:(1)ln1,(3)ln1,(n1),,(0)ln2,(2)ln2,(n2):,lny(2+1)=lny(2)+()=lny(2)+(n1)ln1+e(),=2+1,=0,1,WKe()()-(n1)ln1e(),E(e())=0,vare()(n1)(ln1)2,=2+1,=0,1,WK,lny(2+2)=lny(2+1)+()=lny(2+1)+(n2)ln2+e(),=2,=0,1,WKe()()-(n2)ln2e(),E(e())=0,vare()(n2)(ln2),=2,=0,1,WK,,(AverageGrowthRate):AGR=E(lny(+1)-lny())=E(lny(2+2)-lny(2+1)+lny(2))/2=E((n1)ln1+(n2)ln2+e())/2-((n1)+ln1+(n2)ln2)/2=2ln(1(n1)2(n2)),PFE,,;3.b(n^)+c(n^)0,,,limt,nt=0,limtnt+1=,limtnt=,limtnt+1,,,433:Ramsey(,2004),:U=0ert=0((n))t!AtF(N-n)d(4.1),:U=A0F(N-n)r-(n)(-1)(4.2)n3U,:F(N-n3)(n3)=(-1)F(N-n3)r-(n3)(-1)(4.3):(N-n^)(n^)=(N-n^))r+(n^)(4.4),,,F(N-n3)(N-n^),F(N-n)F(N-n)F(N-n)=(N-n),,,(-1),;-1,,F(N-n3)((N-n^)),F(N-n)((N-n)),r-(n3)(-1)r+(n^),,;;,,,;53,,,,(n^n32)(n^n31),,4,,,,,,,,PFE,,;,PFE,,;,PFE,,,,,,,[][1],.[J].,2008,(2).[2].[M].,2004.[3].[J].,2004,24(5).[4]Aghion,P.andHowitt,P.AModelofGrowththroughCreativeDestruction[J].Econometrica,1992,60(2):323-251.[5]Dixit,A.,andStiglize,J.MonopolisticCompetitionandOptimumProductDiversity[J].AmericanEconomicReview,1977,67:297-308.63[6]Ezekiel,M.TheCobwebTheorem[J].TheQuarterlyJournalofEconomics,1938,255.[7]Schumpeter,J.A.Capitalism,SocialismandDemocracy[M].NewYork:HarperandBrothers,1942.EquilibriumAnalysisofIndustrialInnovation:fromthePerspectiveofCreativeDestructionLIKaiWANGDanGAOJia2qiAbstract:Asanessentialactivityforfirms,innovationhasbeenthefocusinindustrialorganization.Theindustrialinnovationwiththeimplicationofcreativedestructionmakesproductionupdated.Basedonthemod2elofindustrialinnovation,thispaperanalyzestheinputofresearchandpresentsthreeprobableequilibriums:stationaryequilibrium,two2cycleandno2growthtrap.No2growthtrapshouldbeavoidedinordertomaintainasteadyeconomicgrowth.Afteranalyzingthewelfareofstationaryequilibrium,itisfoundthattheaveragegrowthratebymaximizingtheprofitmightbehigherorlowerthanthesocialoptimallevel,thereforeitispossi2blethattherapidgrowthconflictswithhighconsumerwelfare.Keywords:industrialinnovation;equilibrium;creativedestruction[:]73