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——2005200544SomeKeyIssuesinChina’sCapitalMarketandCreativeResearchesWuShinongSchoolofmanagement,XiamenUniversity200520054477————9091929394959697989920002001A()10145318329132353074585194910861190EPS———0.3440.3150.2500.2300.2500.200.130.2030.136ROE(%)———14.614.210.89.509.827.795.948.425.53—5.094375327150425129484294522691252A()—5.0501955023225655443513979751B()——443838334781264140AB()———82506370198335321520431————————3159193NA———6118932843613847563NA()—3717186196893828675204574682141608816463(—110104835313691347498421752919506264714809143522()——681366781274036211333072223956313206082638305A()——65035628003431921052302952346231049NANAGDP()—2161882663834634467595847867884744637939682054894099580019921993199419951996199719989212.515.510.86.15.92.60.19314.314.111.78.68.04.59412.59.99.59.36.39512.54.73.1-1.69613.211.57.89712.210.29811.8“00051400119079786600ROE=5.53%/GDP45.43%/GDP15.1%1STPT123ST4PT52ab——c12abc12ab“”cd——12abc15560IPO2aVaRbcd12abcde12abcde11997199952%84%52439371999a102031%b188748%c39310%d85011%2abc12’’’11110——How&Why?234——56907“”9089Markowitz,Miller,Sharpe(1990),Modigliani(1985),Merton,Scholes(1997)Kahneman2003Whowillbethenext?2101000——=FX3…XnE1aIncentiveAlignmentArgument(Jensen&Meckling,1976)bTakeoverPremiumArgument(Stulz,1988)cMonitorArgument(Shleifer&Vishny,1988)dRewardArgument(Kole,96)eInsider-rewardArgument(Chao,1988)fInsider-InvestmentArgument(Lord&Martin,1997)2aEntrenchmentArgument(Morck,Shlerfer&Vishny,1988)bCostofCapitalArgument(Fama&Jensen,1983)c(Morck,Shlerfer&Vishny,1988)dNaturalSelectionArgument(Demseta,1983;Demstz&Lehn,1985;Kole&Lehn,1997)eStultzStultz’sIntegratedTheory——U(Stulz,1988)fMorckMorck’sCombinedTheory0-5%5-25%25%(Morck,Shlerfer&Vishny,1988)3——aHan&Suk,1998;Holthausen,1996;Mehran,1995;bBoyley,Carter&Stover,98;Slovin&Sushka,93;Jensen&Murphy,90.cShort&Keasey,99;Holderness,Kroszner&Sheehan,99;McConnell&Servaes,99.dRozeff&Zaman,98;Cho,98;Yermack,97;Loderer&Martin,97.eHimmelberg,Hubbard&Palia,99;Thomsen&Pedersen,99;Eckbo&Smith,98;Mikkelson&Partch,97.1MBOaMBObMBOcMBOdMBOeMBO2MBO——CorporateGovernancePremium123Rp=Rf+Rm-Rfβp+∑(CVs)λp+(GCI)γp+εp4γp≠03%5%567——HowtomeasureIndexofCorporateGovernance?1234——56——1——100%A=1B23112B2331C2342“”“”——3“”——vs4“”45——6“”7“”——ROEROAEVA/TA——————AgentTheoryTheoryofCorporateGovernance——1“”2——12001a2002621200361/3b15cde/1377%62%611250%34%561382%N.A.5971589%N.A.6070985%N.A.561173%N.A.57571578%N.A.5670875%33.3%5572815%2N.A.N.A.*“”2000173abcd1%b1a——b——c——2123“”——“”“”——.....…——2002128GlobalCrossing31320011CEO230037.06200082001129012001639%1750—2002——1“”“”2“”“”“”“”3“”“”a11b30%“3EPS”——1“”2“”32.1123WTO4abc1231234——“”“”“”“”——(a)USMarket:15.3%to48.4%(b)UKmarket:4.7%to14.3%(Exception-2.2%)(c)AustraliaMarket:20.2%to29.2%(d)CanadianMarket:7.4%(e)FranceMarket:4%(f)Japanesemarket:12%to54.7%(g)HongKongmarket:16.3%(h)SingaporeMarket:27.4%to35.6%(i)Malaysiamarket:124.8%to166.7%(j)MainlandChinaMarket:217%to256%120%to130%4IPO—TheHighestInitialReturns(a)EvidencesfromSomeStatistics----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------19971998ShanghaiShenzhenShanghaiShenzhen-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------No.ofIPOs59675549MeanIssuingPrice6.456.315.385.78MeanP/ERatio14.7414.6314.2514.39MeanShares5435582864426306MeanLotteryRate0.91%0.99%0.47%0.84%CapitalforAllocation44Bil.44Bil.94Bil.67.5Bil.InitialReturn139%140%128.3%113.7%---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------b*199996120%*2000283132%*1999274A218%40B30%cIPO——Why*RockModel*200215-18——BehaviorFinance“”“”“”“”“”“”“”“”“”“”“”“”“”“”“”“”“”“”“”“”“”“”“”“”“”“”“”-30-20-100+10+20+30——“”“”“”“”““”“”“”“”“”20009200312A338“”“”“”“”“”TverskyKahneman1981“”FramingDependenceBias“”“”“”“”312“”—=CARSRp=Rf+Rm–Rfp+pep=rp-RpCARS=epGoodNewsBadNews41Copy2………3——WhyandHow?512345——1LaPorta,Lopez-de-Silanes,ShleiferandVishnyLLSV19982000“”2a——Dyck2000HimmelbergHubbardLove2002BoubakriCossetGuedhami2003LLSV——FaccioLangYoung200195“”LLSV2000b——LLSV2090————“‘’”——“”——————1——a=b————“”“”——————2——ab=f(X1,X2,X3,…,Xn,e)————VS.VS.?EVA——“”“”————3——ab=f(X1,X2,X3,…,Xn,e)——————“”R0E————ROE——————————“”“”—————————ThankYou&OpentoQuestions