基于层次分析法的SWOT分析

354大连海事大学学报Vol.35No.4200911JournalofDalianMaritimeUniversityNov.,2009:10067736(2009)04005504SWOT刘振峰,刘阁,陈燕,童菁菁(,116026):为准确分析航运企业的竞争态势和市场地位,将层次分析法(AHP)应用到航运企业的优势劣势机会和威胁(SWOT)分析中.针对SWOT分析方法缺少定量分析过程的不足,建立一个较为完整的定性与定量分析相结合的系统框架,通过建立SWOT定量分析模型和五个判断矩阵,分析影响航运企业发展的关键因素,提出中国航运企业的战略选择方案.分析结果表明,该方法可较好地为航运企业竞争战略的制定提供可靠依据.:航运企业;优势劣势机会和威胁(SWOT)分析;层次分析法(AHP);战略选择:F55:ASWOTanalysisofChinasshippingenterprisesbasedonAHPLIUZhenfeng,LIUGe,CHENYan,TONGJingjing(TransportationManagementCollege,DalianMaritimeUniversity,Dalian116026,China)Abstract:Toanalyzethecompetitivesituationsandthemarketpositionsoftheshippingenterprisesmoreaccurately,theanalytichierarchyprocess(AHP)wasusedintothestrengths,weaknesses,opportunitiesandthreats(SWOT)analysissoastomakeupthedeficiencyoflackingquantitativeanalysis,andanintegratedandsystematicanalyzingframeworkcombiningthequalitativeandquantitativeanalysiswasconstructed,andthekeyfactorsinfluencingthedevelopmentoftheshippingenterprisesweresummarizedbyanalyzingquantitativeSWOTmodelandthefivejudgmentmatrixes,therebysomestrategieswerepresented.Resultsshowthattheproposedmethodcanwellprovidereliablebasisforshippingenterprisestomakestrategies.Keywords:shippingenterprises;strengths,weaknesses,opportunitiesandthreats(SWOT)analysis;analytichierarchyprocess(AHP);strategychoice0引言SWOT[1-2],(Strengths)(Weakness)(Opportunities)(Threats),,,,,,SWOT,,SWOT,,SWOT,(AHP)[3-5]AHPSWOT[6],,AHP,,1构建SWOT分析模型,[7-10],,:20090608.:(200801510001).:(1964-),,,,,Email:[e-mail].:(1952-),,,,,Email:[e-mail],1.1SWOT2构造判断矩阵SWOT,,,5~9Satty1~9,,,,1~5.1AASWOTS1477W14136O171313T17161312SSS1S2S3S1156S21513S3161313:aijajk=aik,i,j,k=1,2,,n(1)(),.CI=max-nn-1(2)SattyRI,500,1~9,!max,:RI=!max-nn-1(3).CR=CIRI(4),CR0.10,,.1~5,,6.6,ASWOTCR∀0.10,.,,56大连海事大学学报第35卷,7,.(S1).6maxw1w2w3w4CIRICRA4.23980.59620.23920.10370.06090.07990.90.088S3.09560.70710.20140.09150.04780.580.082W4.240.4720.3080.1670.0520.080.90.088O3.1670.6920.2230.0840.08350.580.10T4.3180.5280.250.1680.0530.1060.90.107w1w2w3w4S0.42150.12000.0545W0.11300.07360.03990.0124O0.07170.02310.0087T0.03210.01520.01020.0032SWOTCI(j)(j=S,W,O,T),RI(j)(j=S,W,O,T),CR=#mj=1CI(j)aj#mj=1RI(j)aj=0.0478∃0.5962+0.08∃0.2392+0.0835∃0.1037+0.106∃0.06090.58∃0.5962+0.9∃0.2392+0.58∃0.1037+0.9∃0.0609=0.0920.1(5).4利用SWOT四边形进行战略选择AHPSWOT(),SWOT.(),(),,2.7,:S1=0.4215,W1=0.1130,O1=0.0717,T1=0.0321.2SWOT2:S%SAO=12∃0.4215∃0.0717=0.015S%WAO=12∃0.1130∃0.0717=0.004S%WAT=12∃0.1130∃0.0321=0.002S%SAT=12∃0.4215∃0.0321=0.007:S%SAOS%SATS%WAOS%WAT,:SO,ST,WO,WT.5结论:(1)SO():SO,()(,).,.,,(),.,,,.(2)ST():,,,,,,.(3)WO():,.,57第4期刘振峰,等:基于层次分析法的中国航运企业SWOT分析,,,,,,,,.(4)WT():,,,,.,,,,.(References):[1]SMITHGA,CHRISTENSENRC.SuggestionstoInstructorsonPolicyFormulation[M].Chicago:RichardDIrwin,1951:34.[2]ANDREWSKR.TheConceptofCorporateStrategy[M].Homewood:IrwinProfessionalPublishing,&,1971:23.[3]SATTYTL.AnalyticHierarchyProcess[M].NewYork:McGrawHillInternational,1980:235,5684.[4]SATTYTL,HUH.Rankingbytheeigenvectorversusothermethodsintheanalytichierarchyprocess[J].AppliedMathematicalLetters,1998,11(4):121125.[5]SATTYTL.GroupdecisionmakingandtheAHP[C]TheAnalyticalHierarchyProcess:ApplicationandStudies.Berlin:Springer,1989:5971.[6]KURTTILAM,PESONENM,KANGASJ,etal.Utilizingtheanalytichierarchyprocess(AHP)inSWOTanalysis:ahybridmethodanditsapplicationtoaforestcertificationcase[J].ForestPolicyandEconomics,2000,1(1):4152.[7].SWOT[J].,2005(9):3839.[8].[J].,2007(1):204206.[9].[J].,2005(11):6165.[10].[J].,2005,27(12):12.[11].[D].:,2008.(上接第54页)4结论,,.(References):[1]KapHwanKim,YoungManPark.Acraneschedulingmethodforportcontainerterminals[J].EuropeanJournalofOperationResearch,2004,156(3):752768.[2]BISHEK.Amultiplecraneconstrainedschedulingprobleminacontainerterminal[J].EuropeanJournalofOperationalResearch,2003,144(1):83107.[3],,.[J].,2008,34(2):117121.[4].[D].:,2005.[5].[J].,1996(6):1516.[6].[D].:,2003.[7],,.[J].,2007(8):6063.58大连海事大学学报第35卷