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原文FinancialManagementofR&DFinancialthinkingaboutR&Dhasevolvedwellbeyondbasicdiscountedcashflowmodels.Bettertoolshavebeendevelopedtovalueintellectualcapital,includingthequantitativeassessmentofthevalueaddedbyR&D.ThedissectionoftheelementsofriskandtheapplicationofrealoptionstheoryarenewfeaturesoftheR&Dlandscape.Financingvehicleshavealsochangedwithanenormoussurgeofventurecapitalandprivateequityfunds.Theanalyst’stoolboxhasbeenenhancedbyelectronicspreadsheets,on-linedatabases,MonteCarlosoftware,theInternet,andtheubiquitouspersonalcomputer.IndustrialR&Discharacteristicallyahigh-riskinvestmentwithadeferredpayoff.Itsimportancetoindustrialsocieties,andtoindividualfirmswithintheseeconomies,isparamount；Lauhasestimatedthatmorethan50%ofthewealthcreationindevelopedcountriesoriginatesfromtechnology,whichistypicallyaproductofR&D.However,R&Dcomesatacost,anditisascapableofdestroyingvalueascreatingit.Knowingthedifferenceiscrucial;thepenaltiesforunderinvestmentcanbeadeterioratingcompetitivepositionandlostopportunity;foroverinvestmentitwillbeaslowerosionofthefirm’scapitalbase.Butmeasuringthedifferencebetweenvaluecreationandvaluedestructionisnoteasy.OnesourceofconfusionisthataccountingconventionstreatR&Dasanexpense,notaninvestment.Anevenmorefundamentalissueisthatpastperformanceisnotareliableguidetofutureperformance.Facedbyameasurementproblemthatisbothdifficultandimportant,thebusinessfinancialandacademiccommunitieshavecontinuedimprovingtheirtools.Asaresult,R&Danalysisandmanagementhasevolveddramaticallyinthepastfiftyyears(3),andthatevolutionisfarfromover.Initsfirstpostwarphase,industrialR&DwasviewedasacreativeenterpriseandIts’managementwaslefttotheR&Ddirectors.Theirmainfinancialmetricwasanannualbudget(atoolbasicallyinadequatetoevaluateaninvestment).Thebudgetwasinpartdeterminedbyindustrybenchmarks,suchasR&Dexpenseasapercentageofrevenues.Accordingly,thefinancialskillsofR&Dexecutiveswerelargelyfocusedoncostaccountingandcostcontrol(4).Inmanycompanies,topmanagement(oftenlackingpersonalexperienceinR&D)didn’thaveaclueabouttherelationshipofvaluetocost,andattemptedtomanagethefunctionbyaprocessthathasbeenpithilydescribed(5)as“managingthemanager”.Inotherwords,poorR&Dreturnswereviewedmoreasaproductofpoormanagementthanaconsequenceofafirm’sstrategy.Thesolutionwasoftentohirea“newboy.”Thesecondphase,inthe1970s,wastheintroductionofincreasinglypowerfultoolsforevaluatinginvestmentsunderriskbeingadoptedbyfinancialanalyststoR&D,leadingtoacircumstanceIwoulddescribeas“theapparenttriumphofDCF(DiscountedCashFlow).”TheuseofDCFinevaluatinginvestmentswasanimportantstepforwardinthatitintroducedthedisciplineofbusinessplans,factoredintheconceptofrisk,andhelpedbridgethecommunicationsgapbetweentechnicalandnon-technicalexecutives.TheDCFtoolkitincludednetpresentvalue(NPV)internalrateofreturn(IRR)andriskweightedcostofcapital.”Butasitwasappliedinpractice,theuseofexcessivediscountratesandoverlyconservativeterminalvaluescombinedtocondemnalmostanylong-termR&D.project.Thisresultcontradictedindustry’scommonexperiencethatmanyofthemostprofitableinnovationshadlonggestationperiods.Thewordvaluehasbecomeafixtureofthebusinesslexiconduringthepasttwodecades.Unfortunately,thisomnipresentwordisbeingusedintwoverydifferentcontexts:economicvalueandmarketvalue.Thetwoformsofvaluearenotatallthesame.ThedistinctionisprofoundforR&D,becauseinnovationinitiallycomesatacostioneconomicvalue,butisequallyoftenadriverformarketvalue!EconomicValueThetermEconomicValueisinvokedinmuchcurrentbusinessjargon,explicitlyInsuchconceptsasEconomicValueAdded(EVA),andimplicitlyindiscussionsof“valuechains,”and“valuepropositions.”Theeconomicvalueofanenterpriseisdeterminedbytheprojectedsumofitsfreecashflows,discountedbyitscostofcapital.TheEVAconcept,althoughtraceabletoAlbertP.Sloan,thelegendaryCEOofGeneralMotors,wasreintroducedtothecorporatecommunitybythefirmSternStewartinthe1990s,withconsiderableimpact.EVAisdefinedasnetoperatingprofitminusanappropriatechargefortheopportunitycostofallcapitalinvestedintheEnterprise.(TherelationshipbetweenEVAandEconomicValueissimple:EconomicValueisjustthesumoftheEVA’saddedbytheenterpriseineachsuccessiveyear.)EVAisanestimateoftrue“economicprofit,”ortheamountbywhichearningsexceedorfallshortoftherequiredminimumrateofreturnthatshareholdersandlendersmightearnbyinvestinginalternativesecuritiesofcomparablerisk.TheCrisisinValuation;WhenMarketValueDidn’tTrackMarketValueForprofessionalinvestorsinsecurities,thebottomlineisnoteconomicreturn,itistotalshareholderreturn(TSR),definedastheappreciationofthestockpriceplusdividendpayments.Thisis“cashisking”reasoning,sinceliquidsecuritiesandcashdividendsmeancashtoaninvestor.Tomoneymanagers,totalreturnisalsotheirreportcard.Insuchaworld,theMarketValueofastockisthefinalmetric,andEconomicValueisbutonecomponentofit.Investorsalsogaugeeachfirm’sstrategicposition,plusotherfactorscontributingtoMarketValuesuchasinvestorsentimentandmacroeconomictrends.Shareholdervaluehaslargelycometobesynonymouswithcurrentmarketvalue-stockprice-andexecutivesordirectorswhoignorethisre