变压器健康状况评估与剩余寿命预测

2611201011PowerSystemandCleanEnergyVol.26No.11Nov.20101674-3814201011-0037-07TM406AABSTRACT:Athree-tierassessmentmodeloftransformercondi－tionisestablishedinthispaper,andtheelectricalequipmenthealthindexformulaisintroducedinthemodel,andthenafor－mulaisderivedtoobtaintheresiduallifeandfuturehealthin－dexformula.Themodelthusisusedintheconditionassess－mentandcalculationoftheresiduallifefora500kVtrans－formersubstation.Theresultsarisenfromtheprocessarefoundtobeinconformitywiththeactualconditions.KEYWORDSpowertransformerconditionassessmentresiduallife：、500kV、、。：0、。、。、、、、、[1-6]。。EA500kV、、。1。、[7]。1。、、、4。1)、、、、、、、1211.0710032.050021TransformerConditionAssessmentandResidualLifePredictionLIANGBo-yuan1,LIUWei2,YANGXin-tong11.SchoolofElectricandElectronicEngineeringNorthChinaElectricPowerUniversity,Baoding071003,HebeiProvince,China2.HebeiElectricPowerResearchInstitute,Shijiazhuang050021HebeiProvince,China———————————————————kj2009-038。SmartGrid、、、。2)、、、。3)、、、、、、、、、。4)5a、、、、、。22.1。、、、、、。2。0~10、、、。2.2、、。3。2.34。F1、F2、F3、。F1F2、、F3。HI、EOL。33.1EA、1Vol.26No.11243SmartGrid38。HI=HI0×eB×(T2-T1)1HI0HIBT1HI0T2。0～10。0～33.0～6.5＞6.5。3.2。[8-9]1、2。3.31B。1B=lnHI/lnHI0T2-T12T′exp=T2-T1。T′expHI6.5。HI00.5。2B=ln6.5/ln0.5T′exp32T′exp。。、、TexpT′exp=TexpfL×fE4、。40％~60％。3。β=SaveS53。、、、、、。40℃30℃20℃-25℃。。4。BHI1HI1=HI0×eB×(T2-T1)=0.5×eB×ΔT6ΔT。10.1923SH20.1154SCH40.1154SC2H60.1154SC2H40.4615SC2H220.2191Cm0.2191Ca0.3425Ct0.2191Cb3/%fL0~401.0040~601.0560~701.1070~801.2580~1501.60SmartGrid2611393.4、1HI2a[10-11]。HI2aH2CH4C2H6C2H2C2H45V5。VSi=ViCi7HI2a=(SH2+SC2H6+SCH4+SC2H4+SC2H2)82HI2b[12-13]。HI2b。、、、U6。USi=Ui×Ci9HI2b=(Sm+Sa+St+Sb)103HI2c[14]。HI2c。-。1000250。FFADP=-121×ln(FFA)+45811FFA＝5DP＝250HI=7FFA＝0.01DP=1000HI=0.1HI2c=2.33×(FFA)0.68124HIcom。HIcomHI1、HI2a、HI2b、HI2cHI1HIcom=HI1×fcom13HI1HIcom=max(HI2a×HI2b×HI2c)×fcom14fcom。3.51。、、、、447。2。F25a＝×＋×＋×。8、9。401.0011.0021.0531.1541.3062020~3030~40400.030.03~0.070.07~0.120.12~0.130.1322~44~66~10105040~5030~403002481052020~4040~100100~2002001010~2020~50100~1501501010~2020~50100~1501501010~2020~50100~15015011~55~2020~100100024810168135Vol.26No.110.911.11.21.30.911.11.21.30.911.11.21.30.911.11.21.3123457SmartGrid403F3。F310。、、①max、、1F3＝、、②max、、≤1F3＝min、、。3.61HI。HI=HIcom×F1×F2×F3152。EOL。7、。HI=HI0×eB×EOLHI=77=HI0×eB×EOLEOL=(ln7/HI)/B163HIn。HInnΔTHIn=HI0×eB×Δt=HI0×eB×n1744.12A500kVODFPS-250000/50020073s042007412007425250MV·A1BB.773.0311DSOWODAF,74.8kW0.078%DB-25201t57.8tY0/Δ-11243LB-500,LRB-220LRB-35。1500MV·A5a501.1MV·A5a0.63411~14。901.012~221.411.13~61.27~111.31010.951.421.031.141.20.000.410.434.251.8242.4783.06760.829056.085.091142℃、μL/L12/mgKOH·g-1/kV/℃/mg·L-1tanδ/％×1012/(Ω·m)/mN·m-10.016.862.81464000.0795.084213、μL/L0.000.000.100.800.555.55289.860.900.000.000.110.440.8317.41148.830.550.000.000.140.450.8516.46154.790.59SmartGrid26114114/mgKOH·g-1/kV/℃/mg·L-1tanδ/％×1012/(Ω·m)/mN·m-10.0106.861.41486.40.3495.140.50.0116.856.81476.00.1764.143.00.0156.859.61446.40.5355.341.5Vol.26No.114.21HI1。40a1a25a80％3fL=1.14fE=1.05。4、、2CT′exp=TexpfL×fL=401.1×1.05=34.63a3B=ln5.5/0.5T′exp=ln5.5/0.534.63=0.0692T′expB6HI1=HI0×eB×(T2-T1)=0.5×eB×ΔT=0.5×e0.0692×1=0.542HI2a、HI2b、HI2c。HI2a51171HI2a=(SH2+SC2H6+SCH4+SC2H4+SC2H2)=0HI2b69210HI2bHI2b=(Sm+Sa+St+Sb)=0HI2cHI2c=2.33×FFA0.68=0.033HIcom。HIcom4HIHI1、HI2a、HI2b、HI2cHIcom=HI1×fcom=0.91×1=0.914HI。、、HI=HIcom×F1×F2×F3F17F1=0.9F28、9F2=1F3、、9F3=1。HI=HIcom×F1×F2×F3=0.91×0.9×1×1=0.825EOL。EOL。B=0.1169EOLEOL=(ln7/HI)/B=(ln7/0.82)/0.0692=31.00a6HIn。HInnΔT。10aHI10=HI0×eB×Δt=HI0×e0.0692×10=1.6410a、。5SmartGrid42。“”“”。。[1].[J].,20101:76-79.[2].[J].,2009,36:100-103.[3].Q/GDW156-2006[S].2006.[4]．[J]．1998329-32．[5]．[J]．．2006301032-35．[6]．[J]．199923231-33．[7]．[J]．200320418-22．[8]．20kV[J]．200219623-26．[9].[J].200825116-19．[10].20kV[J].2008321998-100．———————————————————2010-06-30。1970—1987—1970—1958—。。、。EA。500kV、、。[1].[J].2010,38(6):50-54.[2].[J].2010,38(5):53-56.[3].[J].2010,38(2):54-57.[4].[J].2009,37(11):1-4.[5].[J].2008,36(12):73-76.[6].[J].2008,36(7):60-62.[7].[J].2002391235-38.[8].[M].1988.[9]SaatyTL.AScalingMethodforPrioritiesinHierarchicalStructures[J].JournalofMathPsychology1997(15)234-281.[10].[M].2005:29-38.[11]DL/T722-2000[S].2000.[12].[J].2007333:186-189.[13].[J].2007338:106-110.[14].[J].200441213-17.———————————————————2010-08-15。1986—。SmartGrid261118!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!43