Chap017宏观行业分析

INVESTMENTS|BODIE,KANE,MARCUSCopyright©2011byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.McGraw-Hill/IrwinCHAPTER17MacroeconomicandIndustryAnalysis宏观经济分析与行业分析INVESTMENTS|BODIE,KANE,MARCUS17-2•Afirm’svaluecomesfromitsearningsprospects,whicharedeterminedby:公司的价值来源于盈利前景–Theglobaleconomicenvironment全球宏观经济–Economicfactorsaffectingthefirm’sindustry影响公司行业的经济因素–Thepositionofthefirmwithinitsindustry公司在行业内的地位FundamentalAnalysis基础面分析INVESTMENTS|BODIE,KANE,MARCUS17-3•Stockmarketsaroundtheworldrespondedinunisontothefinancialcrisisof2008.直到2008年危机之前，全球股市一直都很“和谐”•Performanceincountriesandregionscanbehighlyvariable.不同国家和地区的表现经常会非常不同•Itisharderforbusinessestosucceedinacontractingeconomythaninanexpandingone.企业在扩展的经济取得成功较为容易，在紧缩的经济中取得成功就很困难TheGlobalEconomy全球经济INVESTMENTS|BODIE,KANE,MARCUS17-4•Politicalrisk:政治风险–TheglobalenvironmentmaypresentmuchgreaterrisksthannormallyfoundinU.S.-basedinvestments.全球的经济和政治环境要比美国动荡的多•Exchangeraterisk:汇率风险–Changesthepricesofimportsandexports.净出口的价格变动TheGlobalEconomy全球经济INVESTMENTS|BODIE,KANE,MARCUS17-5Table17.1EconomicPerformance经济表现INVESTMENTS|BODIE,KANE,MARCUS17-6TheDomesticMacroeconomy美国的宏观经济•Stockpricesrisewithearnings.股票价格一般随着盈利的增长而增长•P/Eratiosarenormallyintherangeof12-25.市盈率一般在12至25的范围内•Thefirststepinforecastingtheperformanceofthebroadmarketistoassessthestatusoftheeconomyasawhole.预测宏观市场的表现首先评估宏观经济整体的表现INVESTMENTS|BODIE,KANE,MARCUS17-7Figure17.2S&P500IndexversusEarningsPerShare标准普尔500指数与每股收益INVESTMENTS|BODIE,KANE,MARCUS17-8•Grossdomesticproduct国民生产总值•Unemploymentrates失业率•Inflation通胀率•Interestrates利率•Budgetdeficit预算赤字•Consumersentiment消费者情绪TheDomesticMacroeconomy:KeyVariables宏观经济关键变量INVESTMENTS|BODIE,KANE,MARCUS17-9DemandandSupplyShocks需求与供给冲击•Demandshock-aneventthataffectsdemandforgoodsandservicesintheeconomy需求冲击，是影响经济中商品和服务需求的事件•Supplyshock-aneventthatinfluencesproductioncapacityorproductioncosts供给冲击，是影响生产能力或者生产成本的事件INVESTMENTS|BODIE,KANE,MARCUS17-10Demand-sidePolicy需求面政策•Fiscalpolicy–thegovernment’sspendingandtaxingactions财政政策，是政府制定花钱和收钱（税收）的政策、法规、行动等等•Monetarypolicy–manipulationofthemoneysupply货币政策，是操作货币供给面的政策如公开市场操作、贴现率、准备金率等等INVESTMENTS|BODIE,KANE,MARCUS17-11FiscalPolicy财政政策•Mostdirectwaytostimulateorslowtheeconomy最直接的、刺激经济或者减速经济的方法•Formulationoffiscalpolicyisoftenaslow,cumbersomepoliticalprocess但是财政政策的制定在美国通常是漫长、繁杂的政治过程（中国就不一定，这是好事还是坏事？）INVESTMENTS|BODIE,KANE,MARCUS17-12FiscalPolicy财政政策•Tosummarizetheneteffectoffiscalpolicy,lookatthebudgetsurplusordeficit.总结财政政策的净影响一般是考察政府预算赤字或者盈余•Deficitstimulatestheeconomybecause:赤字是刺激经济，盈余拖减–itincreasesthedemandforgoods(viaspending)bymorethanitreducesthedemandforgoods(viataxes)因为赤字就是花的钱比收的钱多，增加了当期的需求（通过透支未来的需求）INVESTMENTS|BODIE,KANE,MARCUS17-13MonetaryPolicy货币政策•Manipulationofthemoneysupplytoinfluenceeconomicactivity.操纵货币的供给面，以影响经济活动•Increasingthemoneysupplylowersinterestratesandstimulatestheeconomy.增加供给的手段有降低利率，刺激借贷和经济增长•Lessimmediateeffectthanfiscalpolicy比财政政策的影响要温和一些•Toolsofmonetarypolicyincludeopenmarketoperations,discountrate,reserverequirements其他工具有公开市场操作、贴现率、准备金要求.INVESTMENTS|BODIE,KANE,MARCUS17-14Supply-SidePolicies供给面政策•Goal:Tocreateanenvironmentinwhichworkersandownersofcapitalhavethemaximumincentiveandabilitytoproduceanddevelopgoods.目标是创造一个鼓励性的环境，让工人和企业主更加愿意和努力生产、投资•Supply-sidersfocusonhowtaxpolicycanbeusedtoimproveincentivestoworkandinvest.供给面政策强调如何运用税收政策刺激工作和投资，通常是减税政策INVESTMENTS|BODIE,KANE,MARCUS17-15BusinessCycles经济周期•Thetransitionpointsacrosscyclesarecalledpeaksandtroughs.转折点通常被称为高峰和谷底–Apeakisthetransitionfromtheendofanexpansiontothestartofacontraction.高峰是从扩张的末期走向紧缩的开始–Atroughoccursatthebottomofarecessionjustastheeconomyentersarecovery.谷底发生在紧缩的末期，复苏的开始INVESTMENTS|BODIE,KANE,MARCUS17-16TheBusinessCycle经济周期CyclicalIndustries周期性•Above-averagesensitivitytothestateoftheeconomy.比平均水平更敏感•Examplesincludeproducersofconsumerdurables(e.g.autos)andcapitalgoods(i.e.goodsusedbyotherfirmstoproducetheirownproducts.)比如耐用品（小汽车）、资本品（房子）•Highbetas高的贝塔值DefensiveIndustries防御性•Littlesensitivitytothebusinesscycle比平均水平更不敏感•Examplesincludefoodproducersandprocessors,pharmaceuticalfirms,andpublicutilities比如食品、制药、公用事业等•Lowbetas低的贝塔值INVESTMENTS|BODIE,KANE,MARCUS17-17•Leadingindicatorstendtoriseandfallinadvanceoftheeconomy.先行经济指标领先总体经济•Coincidentindicatorsmovewiththemarket.同步指标同步总体经济与市场•Laggingindicatorschangesubsequenttomarketmovements.滞后经济指标比总体市场反应更慢•见下一页图17-4EconomicIndicators经济指标INVESTMENTS|BODIE,KANE,MARCUS17-18Figure17.4IndexesofLeading,Coincident,andLaggingIndicators先行、同步和滞后经济指标INVESTMENTS|BODIE,KANE,MARCUS17-19Table17.4UsefulEconomicIndicators有用的经济指标指数INVESTMENTS|BODIE,KANE,MARCUS17-20EconomicCalendar经济日历•Manysources,suchasTheWallStreetJournalandYahoo!Finance,publishthepublicannouncementdatesofvariouseconomicstatistics.你可以在很多著名财经网站上看到经济日历，比如华尔街日报、雅虎财经等等，它们还有很多经济统计数据、各类经济指标的历史数据等等INVESTMENTS|BODIE,KANE,MARCUS17-21Figure17.5EconomicCalendaratYahoo!雅虎财经的经济日历INVESTMENTS|BODIE,KANE,MARCUS17-22IndustryAnalysis行业分析•Itisunusualforafirminatroubledindustrytoperformwell.行业分析也很重要，在整体表现不好的行业内也难有表现较好的公司•Economicperformancecanvarywidelyacrossindustries.不同行业内的经济表现差距很大IN