Chap019财务报表分析

INVESTMENTS|BODIE,KANE,MARCUSCopyright©2011byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.McGraw-Hill/IrwinCHAPTER19FinancialStatementAnalysis财务报表分析1INVESTMENTS|BODIE,KANE,MARCUS19-2•Financialstatementanalysiscanbeusedtodiscovermispricedsecurities.•可以被用于发现被错误定价的证券•Financialaccountingdataarewidelyavailable,but–Accountingearningsandeconomicearningsarenotalwaysthesamething!–重要：会计盈利和经济盈利不总是一样的FinancialStatementAnalysis财务报表分析2INVESTMENTS|BODIE,KANE,MARCUS19-3•IncomeStatement:损益表–Profitabilityovertime•BalanceSheet:平衡表–Financialconditionatapointintime•StatementofCashFlows:现金流量表–Tracksthecashimplicationsoftransactions.FinancialStatements财务报表3INVESTMENTS|BODIE,KANE,MARCUS19-4Table19.1ConsolidatedStatementofIncomeforHewlett-Packard,2009惠普公司的合并损益表4INVESTMENTS|BODIE,KANE,MARCUS19-5Table19.2ConsolidatedBalanceSheetforHewlett-Packard,2009惠普公司的合并资产负债表5INVESTMENTS|BODIE,KANE,MARCUS19-6Table19.3StatementofCashFlowsforHewlett-Packard,2009惠普公司的合并现金流量表6INVESTMENTS|BODIE,KANE,MARCUS19-7AccountingVersusEconomicEarnings会计利润和经济利润•Economicearnings经济利润–Sustainablecashflowthatcanbepaidtostockholderswithoutimpairingproductivecapacityofthefirm–投资者得到的现金流，不伤害公司的持续发展，或者是真实利润•Accountingearnings会计利润–Affectedbyconventionsregardingthevaluationofassets，会计报表反映出来的经济利润，受到各类计价方式和其他因素的影响7INVESTMENTS|BODIE,KANE,MARCUS19-8ProfitabilityMeasures盈利能力度量•ROEmeasuresprofitabilityforcontributorsofequitycapital.–After-taxprofit/bookvalueofequity•ROAmeasuresprofitabilityforallcontributorsofcapital.–EBIT/totalassets–净资产收益率ROE，资本收益率ROA–息税前利润EBIT（Interestrate,Tax)8INVESTMENTS|BODIE,KANE,MARCUS19-9Pastvs.FutureROE历史与未来•ROEisakeydeterminantofearningsgrowth.净资产收益是收益增长的重要指标•Pastprofitabilitydoesnotguaranteefutureprofitability.过去不等于未来•Securityvaluesarebasedonfutureprofits.•Expectationsoffuturedividendsdeterminetoday’sstockvalue.•证券价值由未来盈利决定9INVESTMENTS|BODIE,KANE,MARCUS19-10FinancialLeverageandROE财务杠杆与ROE•ROEcandifferfromROAbecauseofleverage.财务杠杆导致两者不同•LeveragemakesROEmorevolatile.财务杠杆可以使得ROE不稳定•Lett=taxrateandr=interestrate,then:10EquityDebtROAROA1ROErtINVESTMENTS|BODIE,KANE,MARCUS19-11FinancialLeverageandROE财务杠杆与ROE•IfthereisnodebtorROA=r,ROEwillsimplyequalROA(1-t).•IfROAr,thefirmearnsmorethanitpaysouttocreditorsandROEincreases.•IfROAr,ROEwilldeclineasafunctionofthedebt-to-equityratio.•ROE与ROA的关系由基本利率决定11EquityDebtROAROA1ROErtINVESTMENTS|BODIE,KANE,MARCUS19-12Table19.5ImpactofFinancialLeverageonROE财务杠杆的影响12INVESTMENTS|BODIE,KANE,MARCUS19-13ROE=NetProfitPretaxProfitxPretaxProfitEBITxEBITSalesSalesAssetsxxAssetsEquity(1)x(2)x(3)x(4)x(5)xMarginxTurnoverxLeverageTaxBurdenInterestBurdenDecompositionofROEDuPontMethod杜邦分解法x13INVESTMENTS|BODIE,KANE,MARCUS19-14DecompositionofROAROA的分解ROA=EBIT/SalesXSales/Assets=marginXturnover•Marginandturnoverareunaffectedbyleverage.边际收益不受杠杆影响•ROAreflectssoundnessoffirm’soperations,regardlessofhowtheyarefinanced.资本收益反映公司的运作管理14INVESTMENTS|BODIE,KANE,MARCUS19-15DecompositionofROEROE的分解ROE=TaxburdenXROAXCompoundleveragefactor•Taxburdenisnotaffectedbyleverage.•Compoundleveragefactor=InterestburdenXLeverage•税负情况不受杠杆影响•复合杠杆因子=利率负担*杠杆15INVESTMENTS|BODIE,KANE,MARCUS19-16Table19.6RatioDecompositionAnalysisforNodettandSomdett比例分解对比分析16INVESTMENTS|BODIE,KANE,MARCUS19-17ChoosingaBenchmark选择行业标杆•Comparethecompany’sratiosacrosstime.•沿时间轴纵向比较公司比率•Compareratiosoffirmsinthesameindustry.•行业内横向比较公司比率•Cross-industrycomparisonscanbemisleading.•跨行业的比较具有误导性，不提倡17INVESTMENTS|BODIE,KANE,MARCUS19-18Table19.7DifferencesbetweenProfitMarginandAssetTurnoveracrossIndustries不同行业的利润率与总资产周转率不同18INVESTMENTS|BODIE,KANE,MARCUS19-19Table19.9SummaryofKeyFinancialRatios关键财务指标的总结19INVESTMENTS|BODIE,KANE,MARCUS19-20Table19.9SummaryofKeyFinancialRatios关键财务指标的总结20INVESTMENTS|BODIE,KANE,MARCUS19-21Table19.9SummaryofKeyFinancialRatios关键财务指标的总结21INVESTMENTS|BODIE,KANE,MARCUS19-22Table19.9SummaryofKeyFinancialRatios关键财务指标的总结22INVESTMENTS|BODIE,KANE,MARCUS19-23Table19.9SummaryofKeyFinancialRatios关键财务指标的总结23INVESTMENTS|BODIE,KANE,MARCUS19-24Figure19.1DuPontDecompositionforHewlett-Packard惠普公司的杜邦分解：时间线24INVESTMENTS|BODIE,KANE,MARCUS19-25EconomicValueAdded经济增加值•EVAisthedifferencebetweenreturnonassets(ROA)andtheopportunitycostofcapital(k),multipliedbythecapitalinvestedinthefirm.•EVAisalsocalledresidualincome•IfROAk,valueisaddedtothefirm.•（资产收益率-资本机会成本）*资本投资，也称为剩余收入25INVESTMENTS|BODIE,KANE,MARCUS19-26Example19.4Wal-Mart沃尔玛案例•In2009,Wal-Mart’scostofcapitalwas5.9%.ItsROAwas9.6%anditscapitalbasewas$115billion.•Wal-Mart’sEVA=(0.096-0.059)x$115billion=$4.25billion26INVESTMENTS|BODIE,KANE,MARCUS19-27•AccountingDifferences会计差异–InventoryValuation存货估值–Depreciation贬值•InflationandInterestExpense通货膨胀•FairValueAccounting公允价值会计•QualityofEarnings盈余质量•InternationalAccountingConventions国际会计惯例ComparabilityProblems可比性问题27INVESTMENTS|BODIE,KANE,MARCUS19-28InternationalAccountingDifferences•Reserves–manyothercountriesallowmoreflexibilityinuseofreserves•预留准备金•Depreciation–USallowsseparatetaxandreportingpresentations•折旧•Intangibles–treatmentvarieswidely•无形资产28INVESTMENTS|BODIE,KANE,M