我国居民储蓄与利率变动――基于资金流量表的实证研究

上海交通大学硕士学位论文我国居民储蓄与利率变动——基于资金流量表的实证研究姓名：王俊申请学位级别：硕士专业：西方经济学指导教师：朱启贵2008010190Eviews199320042005CHINAHOUSEHOLDSAVINGSANDINTERESTRATECHANGEBASEDONTABLEOFFLOWOFFUNDSABSTRACTThehouseholdsavingsisthemostimportantresourceofcapitaltothedevelopmentofeconomyinChina.Chinashouldmaintainthesustainableeconomicgrowthbytransformingeconomicgrowthmode.Whetherthegovernmentcouldproperlydealwiththerelationshipbetweenthehouseholdsavingsandhouseholdconsumptionsisthekeypointtothetransformationofeconomicgrowthmode.InterestpolicyisoneofthemonetarypoliciesandisaexogenousvariabletoChina’seconomy.Soastudyontherelationshipbetweentheinterestchangeandhouseholdsavingsishelpfultodiscusstransmissionmechanismofinterestpolicyanddeepthereorganizationofinterestregulatory.Thisstudymakesareviewonthetheoryoftherelationshipbetweeninterestandsavingsinclassiceconomicsandmoderneconomics.Theconclusionsareasfollows.Theoreticallythedirectionofsubstitutioneffectbetweenhouseholdsavingsandhouseholdconsumptionsisuncertainwhentheinterestchange.Butinsomecertaincircumstancethesubstituteeffectcanhaveacertaindirection.ThisstudyalsointroducetheflowoffundsaccountandflowoffundsanalysisitcouldmakeasupporttopracticeresearchonChinahouseholdsavingsandinterestchange.ThisstudyalsoreviewstheChinesescholars’practiceresearchontheChinesehouseholdsavingsandinterestchange.Theseeffortsmakeaimportantsupporttothisstudy’spracticeresearch.InpracticeresearchpartthisstudyfirstbuildsthemodelbasedontheworksofJuhuanHeinInstituteofQuantitativeandTechnicalEconomicsChineseAcademyofSocialSciences.Thenthisstudymakesadjustmentsandexplanationsonthedataaboutsavingrateincomegrowthrateandinterest.AftertheseeffortsthisstudyusesEviewstomakeapracticeresearchonChinesehouseholdsavingsandinterestchange.Theconclusionsareasfollowingfrom1992to2004thechangeofChinahouseholdtotalsavingsrateandthechangeofnominalinterestratearepositiverelatedbuttherelationshipisweak;thechangeofChinahouseholdrealsavingsrateandnominalinterestratearenegativerelatedandtherelationshipisweak;notonlythechangeofnominalinterestratebutalsothechangeofrealinterestratecannotexplainthechangeofChinahouseholdfinancialsavingsrate.Thisstudypointsoutthatfewamountofpropertythehouseholdheldandthelittlepropertyincomethehouseholdreceivedarethemaincauseswhichmakethechangeofinteresthaslittleimpactonthechangeofhouseholdsavings.ThereareatleasttworeasonsmakesChinahouseholdholdfewamountofpropertytheeconomicreasonandthesystematicreason.AftercomparingChina’sthetablesofflowoffundsandtheUnitedStates’lackingofassetappreciationrevenueandlittledividendincomegrowthmakethepropertyincomegrowsslowly.Aimedatthecauseoffewamountofpropertyandslowgrowthofpropertyrevenuethisstudyprovidesthesuggestionsthatincreasinghouseholdincomeperfectingthesocialsafetysystemprotectinghouseholdpropertyandcreatingsoundenvironmentforthegrowthofpropertyincome.Since2005therearesomepositivechangesinChinasuchastheacceleratedhouseholdincomegrowththedevelopmentofstockmarketandsoon.Intheforthcomingyearswecanbelievethatthechangeofinterestratecanaffectthechangeofhouseholdsavingratemoreheavily.Theinterestpolicymayplaymoreandmoreimportantroleinmacroregulatory.KEYWORDShouseholdsavingstableofflowoffundsinterestratepropertypropertyincome11.119301GDP219921992199742.5%16.5%73.1%[1]199820041980200459.12%200443.12%20%53.14%20[2]1()199610322MPS1993MPSSNASNA2002[3]200719922004131996520021019991131.2901234520002000Eviews1199320042199320043452.11920[4]121145219646IISSr1rer2r21,SIeeSI,12,SISI,0IISSr1rer2rIISSIISSr1rer2r21,SIeeSI,12,SISI,02-1Figure2-1SavingInvestmentandInterest2-1rISIISS2.22.2.1[5]412341c2c1m2mr17()()212111mmrccr++=++rmmrcc++=++1121212-22-32m1c1m2c1c2crmm++121()211mmr++2m1c1m2c1c2crmm++121()211mmr++2-2Figure22Borrower’sIntertemporalChoice2m1c1m2c1c2crmm++121()211mmr++2m1c1m2c1c2crmm++121()211mmr++2-3Figure2-3Lender’sIntertemporalChoice82-2111mc212222mc2-21211mc2222mc2-21m2mr2-22-32-32-291m1c1Pr()mCcmPCPCmst∆∆−+∆∆=∆∆1111111(2-1)()()()()−+??1P1c()11cm−11mc()11cm−011−cm()11cm−()11cm−102.2.2412SCY+=21SSCY++=YCS1S2S21SSS+=11342-4c∆()cm−2-40−cmc∆Acm−0c∆Acm−c∆122-4ABc∆cm−02-4Figure2-4Borrower’sInter-temporalChoice2.2.32.32.3.1132-1Table21AStandardTableofFlowofFunds12......n123412342-1141944(NBER)19471195219361942()60195519391953195980(MPS)(SNA)901993SNA1994()SNA1993()200719922004132.3.225515162.3.3()2-230100173030=//2-2Table2-2TheImplicationonTableofFlowofFunds10010070703030303030302.3.411823()45619209012345200020003.1198919541987[6]195419781979198719541978197919870199080[7]808021199819821994[8]1999SNA19781997[9]GDP()()()199919781997[10]22()200090[11]200019781999[12]200019965199967[13](1)19951199910(2)2002519942000[14]23200319792000[15]199219998(1991)119791988198919913.212341993SNA1GNP1991173192.245200020001996199925Eviews11993200421993200434.1[17]()xDnrgjsS,,,,,θ=(4-1)θjgrnxDtttbgass+=−1(4-2)1()tcuθ2326ttttcrbgass++=−1(4-3)4.24.2.11992[16]27=TSMSFS4.2.219991114.2.34.34-11992200419922004199219971998200428-20.00%-10.00%0.00%10.00%20.00%30.00%40.00%199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003