01_New and emerging technologies_options for the f

RisøEnergyReport1Newandemergingtechnologies–optionsforthefutureRisøNationalLaboratoryOctober2002EditedbyHansLarsenandLeifSønderbergPetersenRisø-R-1351(EN)ISBN87-550-3081-5ISBN87-550-3082-3(Internet)ISSN0106-2840Newandemergingtechnologies–optionsforthefutureEditedbyHansLarsenandLeifSønderbergPetersenReviewedbyRobertSchockLawrenceLivermoreNationalLaboratory,USAandMarianoBauerInstitutoMexicanodelPetroleo,MexicoD.F.ConsultantCharlesButcherScienceJournalistRisøEnergyReport11Preface32Summaryandmainconclusions43Futureenergyperspectives64DanishandEuropeanenergydevelopment115Integratedenergysystems166Emergingenergytechnologies197Energytechnologiesinnational,Europeanandglobalperspective237.1Windenergy247.2Fuelcells297.3Hydrogenasanenergycarrier327.4Photovoltaics367.5Bioenergyfromwaste407.6Combustionandgasificationoffossilfuelsandbiomass437.7Advancednuclearreactors467.8Fusionenergy507.9Superconductivity538Index569References5721RisøEnergyReport1Allovertheworld,increasingenergyconsumption,lib-eralisationofenergymarketsandtheneedtotakeactiononclimatechangeareproducingnewchallengesfortheenergysector.Atthesametimethereisincreasingpres-sureforresearch,newtechnologyandindustrialprod-uctstobesociallyacceptableandtogenerateprosperity.Theresultisacomplexanddynamicsetofconditionsaffectingdecisionsoninvestmentinresearchandnewenergytechnology.Tomeetthesechallengesinthedecadesahead,industri-alistsandpolicymakersneedappropriateanalysesofenergysystems,plusknowledgeoftrendsforexistingtechnologiesandprospectsforemergingtechnologies.ThisisthebackgroundforthisfirstRisøEnergyReport,whichsetsouttheglobal,EuropeanandDanishenergyscenetogetherwithtrendsindevelopmentandemergingtechnologies.ThereportisthefirstinanewseriesfromRisøNationalLaboratory.TheglobalenergydevelopmentsarepresentedbasedonthelatestavailableinformationfromauthoritativesourceslikeIEA,WEC,WorldEnergyAssessmentetc.Someofthemajorchallengesarepresentedintermsofthechangingenergymarketsinallregions,thefocusonenvironmentalconcernsintheindustrialisedcountries,andenergyfordevelopmentandaccesstoenergyforthepoorindevelopingcountries.ThereportpresentsthestatusofR&Dinprogressforsup-plytechnologies.Thevarioustechnologiesareassessedwithrespecttostatus,trendsandperspectivesforthetechnology,andinternationalR&Dplans.Forthetech-nologieswhereRisøisundertakingR&Dthisishigh-lightedinaseparatesection.Recentstudiesofemergingenergytechnologiesfrominternationalorganisationsandleadingresearchorgani-sationsarereviewed.Therearereviewsofnationalresearchactivitiesonnewenergytechnologiesinanum-berofcountriesaswellasinRisøNationalLaboratory.ConclusionsforDanishenergysupply,Danishindustry,andDanishenergyresearcharedrawnaswellastheimplicationsfortheglobalenergyscene.Thereportisthusbasedoninternationallyrecognisedscientificmaterial,anditisfullyreferencedandrefereedbyaninternationalindependentexpertpanel.Ourtargetgroupiscolleagues,collaboratingpartners,customers,fundingorganisations,Danishministriesandinterna-tionalorganisationsincludingtheEU,IEAandUN.HansLarsenandLeifSønderbergPetersenPrefacePreface32RisøEnergyReport1Theworldisfacingmajorchallengesinprovidingenergyservicesforthefutureneedsofthedevelopedworldandinparticularthegrowingneedsofthedevelopingcoun-tries.Theglobalenergyconsumptionisexpectedtocon-tinuetogrowprimarilyindevelopingcountries.Theirshareofglobalenergyconsumptionwillgrowfromapproximately35%in1990to60%in2050.AtEuro-peanlevel,totalenergydemandisexpectedtoincrease35%by2030comparedtotoday.Energysupplysecurityhasforgeopoliticalreasonsbecomeanincreasingcon-cernespeciallyintheUSandtheEU.Theworld’sfutureenergysupplyislikelytobebasedonopenmarketsamongcountrieswithtradeofbothnaturalgasandelectricityoverlongerdistancesthanweknowtoday.Wealsorecognisethefactthattherewillbelargedifferencesbetweenworldregionswithregardtoenergysupply,environmentalpreferencesandeconomicdevelopment.Forinstance,developingcountriesarelikelytogivehigherprioritytodevelopmentandaccesstoenergyforthepoorthantoshort-termenvironmentalprotection.Ascanbeseenfromthereport,alargevarietyofnewenergysupplyoptionsareatvariousstagesofdevelop-ment.Obviously,itisimpossibletopredictwhichoftheoptionswillwinorbedominantinthemarketplace–thiswillbedeterminedbyfuturespecifictechnologicalandeconomicdevelopments,andbypoliticalprefer-ences.However,asweseeit,futureenergysupplysys-temsarelikelytobecomemore“distributed”thantheyaretoday,andtheywillbebasedonmorediversecom-binationsoflocalandcentraltechnologies.Internationalstudies(IPCCandWEC)haveanalysedseveralalternativeenergyscenarios,whichshowthatalternativepoliciesandprioritiescanleadtoawiderangeofdifferentenergyfutures.Somescenariosexpectsupplytobedominatedbyfossilfuels,withhighsharesofnaturalgasandnuclear,andslowgrowthinrenewableenergy.Otherscenariosexpectrenewableenergysuchasbiomass,solarandwindtomakemajorcontributionsby2050,whileoilandcoaldeclineinimportance.Therealfuturemaybesomewhereinbetween,butwhatiscertainisthatitwilldependontoday’spoliticaldecisionsonthedevelopmentofnewtechnologiesandpolicies.Withr