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CH05CurrentAccountandExchange-RateEquilibrium194-214ElasticitiesApproachandAbsorptionApproachINTERNATIONALFINANCEWangXuguo2TraditionalApproaches•Traditionalapproachestobalance-of-paymentsandexchange-ratedeterminationassumethatcapitalflowsoccuronlytofinancereal-sectortransactions.•Hence,thequantityofforeignexchangedemandedandthequantityofforeignexchangesupplieddependonlyoninternationaltransactionsofgoodsandservices.3FundamentalIssues•5.1.Howdoesthesupplyofexportsanddemandforimportsdeterminethesupplyofanddemandforforeignexchange?•5.2.Whatistheelasticityapproachtobalance-of-paymentsandexchange-ratedetermination?•5.3.Whatistheabsorptionapproachtobalance-of-paymentsandexchange-ratedetermination?•See,P194-2144OverviewoftheElasticitiesApproach•Theelasticitiesapproachemphasizespricechangesasadeterminantofanation’sbalanceofpaymentsandexchangerate.•Theelasticitiesapproachishelpfulinunderstandingthedifferentoutcomesthatmightarisefromtheshorttolongrun.55.1.1TheDemandforForeignExchangeandElasticity•Thedemandforanation’scurrencyisdependentuponforeignresidents’demandforitsexports,thatis,itdependsonforeignresidents’desiretoobtainthedomesticcurrencytofacilitatetheirpurchasesofthedomesticcountry’sexports.•Thesupplyofanation’scurrencyisdependentupon(amongotherthings)domesticresidents’demandforimports,thatis,whenanation’sresidentsimport,theysupplythedomesticcurrencyaspayment.6Figure5-1U.SImportDemandandtheDemandfortheEuro7•外汇需求的推导•假定只有美国和德国两国。如果美国要从德国进口，就需要欧元支付进口。假定不存在借贷，美国对欧元的需求数量就等于美国的进口量。其他条件不变，进口量大小的决定因素是数量和价格。由此推论：美国对欧元的需求数量随着进口数量和价格的变化而变化。8ReviewofElasticity•PriceElasticityofDemandisameasureoftheresponsivenessofquantitydemandedtoachangeinprice.•Ifquantitydemandedishighlyresponsivetoachangeinprice,thendemandissaidtoberelativelyelastic.•Ifquantitydemandedisnotveryresponsivetoachangeinprice,thendemandissaidtoberelativelyinelastic.9•弹性与外汇需求弹性:给定一个价格变动的比例对应的一个需求量(或供给量)变动的比例。需求的价格弹性度量的是需求数量对价格变动的弹性。进口需求的弹性和外汇需求的弹性。（逻辑推理请同学们完成）10Figure5-2ElasticityofImportDemandandtheElasticityofForeignExchangeDemand115.1.2TheSupplyofForeignExchangeandElasticity•Thesupplyofanation’scurrencyisdependentupon(amongotherthings)domesticresidents’demandforimports,thatis,whenanation’sresidentsimport,theysupplythedomesticcurrencyaspayment.12Figure5-3TheExportSupplyCurveandtheSupplyoftheEuro13Figure5-4ElasticityofExportSupplyandtheElasticityofForeignExchangeSupply145.1.3Exchange-RateandBalance-of-Payments•TheEffectofExchangeRateChanges•Theexchangerateisanimportantpricetoaneconomy.•Whenanation’scurrencydepreciates,domesticgoodsbecomerelativelycheaperandforeigngoodsrelativelymoreexpensiveintheglobalmarket.•Hence,wewouldexpectthenation’sexportstoriseandimportstodecline.15TheResponsivenessofImportsandExports•Theelasticitiesapproach,therefore,considerstheresponsivenessofthequantityofimportsandthequantityofexportstoachangeinthevalueofanation’scurrency.•Forexample,ifimportdemandishighlyelastic,adepreciationofthedomesticcurrencywillcausearelativelylargerdeclineinthenation’simports.16SurplusesandDeficits•Itfollowsthatanexcessquantitysuppliedofthedomesticcurrencyisequivalenttoacurrentaccountdeficit.•Likewise,anexcessquantitydemandedofthedomesticcurrencyisequivalenttoacurrentaccountsurplus.•Thecurrentaccountisinbalancewhenthequantityofthedomesticcurrencysuppliedandthequantitydemandedareequal.17Figure5-5TheCurrentAccountDeficitThecurrentaccountdeficitisequivalenttothedifferencebetweenthequantityofforeignexchangedemandedandthequantityofforeignexchangesupplied.Atthespotexchangerateof1.00,U.S.residentsdemand€220millioninforeignexchangeandEuropeanresidentssupply€180million.Hence,thecurrentaccountdeficitis€40million.18TheRoleofElasticity•ThepreviouschartillustratedacurrentaccountdeficitfortheUnitedStates.•Theamountofdepreciationrequiredtoeliminatethisdeficitdependsonelasticity.•Whendemandandsupplyarerelativelymoreelastic,asmallerdeprecationisrequiredtoeliminatethecurrentaccountdeficit.19Table5-1TradeSurplusesofSino-U.S.020040060080010001200199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005(million$)Datasource:IMF,Internationalfinancialstatistics205.2TheElasticityapproachtobalance-of-paymentsandexchange-ratedetermination•BasicModel•TheMarshall-LernerCondition•TheJ-CurveEffect•Pass-ThroughEffects•ConclusionsandCriticalAnalysis21•TheElasticityapproachwasputforwardbyJohnRobinsonRobinson.doc（1903～1983）,whichisbasedonmicroeconomicsandpartialequilibrium(AlfredMarshallMashall.doc（1842～1924）•Thetheoryemphasizespricechangesasadeterminantofanation’sbalanceofpaymentsandexchangerate.225.2.1BasicModelAssumption•Incomes,othergoodspricesandconsumptionpreferencearestable；•Thereisnocapitalflows,capitalflowsoccuronlytofinancereal-sectortransactions.•TherearetwoMarkets：DomestictradedgoodsmarketandForeigntradedgoodsmarket,excludingnon-tradedgoodsmarket•ElasticitiesofSupplyofImportsandExportsareunlimited.23FrameworkofAnalysisAcurrencydepreciationorappreciationthequantityofimportsandexportsthedomesticcurrencypriceforimportsandexportstheelasticityofexportsandimportsTheBalanceofPayments24•Conclusi