基于即时顾客化定制的产品需求预测方法研究

中南民族大学硕士学位论文基于即时顾客化定制的产品需求预测方法研究姓名：穆晨潇申请学位级别：硕士专业：企业管理指导教师：郑双怡20070520IICMCICIC3ICMLPESIIMLPESBPIIIABSTRACTInthisthesis,theQualitativeSimulationModelandSystemofMarketDemandForecasthavebeenstudied,whichintegratefuzzyengineeringtheory,qualitativesimulationtechnology,artificialintelligence,andmodernmarketingmanagementtheory.Firstlybackground,purposeandsignificanceofthisthesisareclarified.Thengeneralsituationofcorrelativeareaindomesticandabroadisintroduced.Andwedefinitelyputforwardthemainproblemsunderresearchofthethesis,thatis,thequalitativeanalysisofmarketdemand,thestudyonthequalitativesimulationmodelofmarketdemandforecast,theresearchonthequalitativesimulationsystemofmarketdemandforecast.Secondly,wedefinetheboundaryofmarketdemand;researchthemostimportantinfluentialfactorsofmarketdemandandtheircorrelation.Furthermore,weresearchthefuzzyevaluationmethodofsystemvariableswithtrapeziumsubjectionfunction.Inaddition,fromtheviewoftheenterprises,weanalyzethenecessityandbasicstepsofimplementingtheDemandStrategy.Thethird,afteradequatelyanalyzingthemarketdemandandinfluentialfactors,weputforwardthemodelingthoughtofthequalitativesimulationmodelofmarketdemandforecast.Webuildthequalitativeprocessknowledgebasewithprocessviewmethod;specifytheimportantfactorswhichinfluencethemarketdemand;splitthewholesystemintosomeparts,soastobuildthefuzzyqualitativesimulationmodelbasedonthequalitativereasoningrulebase.Finally,theexploitationenvironment,designprinciples,mainfunctionsandstructuresofthequalitativesimulationsystemofmarketdemandforecastarediscussed.AndthesourceofI/Odataofthesystemisanalyzed.Furthermore,weapplythesimulationsystem,displayandanalyzetheI/Odata.Intheendofthisthesis,thesummariesareconcludedandfurtherexpectationsaremadeaswell.Atfirsttosupplychainwith,isitcarryonresearchtosupplychainwithmanagementanddomesticandinternationalresearchcurrentsituationanddevelopmenttrend,supplierofmanagementthesis,haveexplainedsomekeyconcepts;Secondly,choosethemethodtocarryondeepcomparativeanalysisandsummarytothesupplierwhohasexistedatpresent,pointouttheweakpoint,providearelativelyoverallIVstrategicsupplier'schoiceevaluationindexsystem;Moreover,usetherelevanttheoriesandmethodofthegametheory,hasmadeanalysistotherelationbetweenenterprisesandtheirsuppliers,analysethroughplayingchessthathasdrawntheadvantagethattheenterpriseanditssupplierformthestrategiccooperativepartner,meanwhile,alsomadeanalysisandexplanationtosomequestionswhichsuppliedthechain;Onthebasisofplayingchessandanalysing,haveexplainedthatestablishesthenecessityofstrategicpartnershiprelation,andestablishthecharacteristicandplusesandminusesofstrategicpartnershiprelation,proposemanufacturer'sconcretedemandforsupplier'sstrategicpartnershiprelation,providetheconcreteimplementationstep;Finally,passthecrisisanalysistostrategicpartnershiprelation,usemotivationaltheoryandenterprise'smanagementtheoryrelevantmethodstobesetuptothecoordinationofthestrategicsupplierandincentivemechanism.Theunderstandingthatenterprisesimproveandsupplythechainmodernlyofresearchofthistextissignificant.Thestrategicmanagementofsupplierthatthistextstudies,canhelpenterprisestostrengthentothemodernunderstanding,understandingofstrategicallianceofsupplyingmanagementofthechainfurther,thestepofthestrategicpartnershiprelationofsetting-upoffered,structureandsupplythechainandcarryoneffectivesupplychainmanagementtoofferreferenceforenterprises.Evaluationindexsystemsofferedandappraisingcriterion,notmerelyofferedthebasisinchoosingtoappraiseasupplierbeforestructuringandsupplyingthechainforenterprises,andtheappraisalonthesupplierhasofferedthebasisafterenterprisesstructuredandsuppliedthechaincorrectly.Incentivemechanismsofsuppliersputforward,canbeasmanagingthesupplier'smethodtacticseffectively.Keyword:InstantCustomerization;MarketDemandForecast;DueDate;EvolutionStrategy1______212001234Delphimethod2JuryofexecutivesUser’sexpectationFieldsalesforce[1][2]J.M.BatesC.W.Granger3[3]GM(1,1)nGM(1,1)[4]GM(1,3)2000-2010,[5][6]ANNA.LapedesR.Farber[7],,,R.R.LeightonB.C.Conrath[8],ARMAK.FunahashiK.Homik[9]ANNANN,ANNBP[10,11][12]BPS4BPANN1.2.2FSSBox-Jenkins80IFSSFSS1992AshouriF.CrystalBayesian[13]Hiemstra[14]Chiu[15]KuoBP[16,17][18][19][20]5[21]FSSFSS(AI)(IDSS)(ES)FSSAI[22](OLAP)FSSAIAIFSSAIFSSFSSAI[23]Zadeh6QiangShen[24][25][26][27][28,29,30](ArtificialIntelligenceAI)NewellSimonAMFES[31]7(QualitativeSimulation)1983SeelyBrowJohndeKleer90[32]DeKleerEnvision[34,35]K.D.Forbus(QPT)[36]B.J.Kuipers(QSIM)IwasakiSimon[37,38]B.J.KuipersQSIMKleerForbus[24,33]QSIM,,QSIM[39,40]AFarleyKPLinQSIM[41]8,,instant-customerizationIC,Raymond2000910InstantCustomerizationICJustInTimeJITNoInventorySystemChristopherMeyerTimebasedcompetitionTBCTBCTBCICICIC11IC12345IC67121234ICICICIC11IC1ICIC13ICICIC1111IC114()1IC12CAD/CAMJITMRPOPTI152ICmaketoorder22ICICICICICICIC2ICIC16ICICICICICBOMBillofmateials17EmergencyRoomModelAmazoncomDisneylandModelGMMcDonaldsWalMartHomeDepotBarnesandNobel18ICIC,,,,(instantcustomerizationIC),ChristopherMeyerTimebasedcompetitionTBCTBC19TBC,4,()22,ICICICICICIC