摩根士丹利-中国城市化2.0：新基建机会手册

MMChina'sUrbanization2.0NewInfrastructureOpportunitiesHandbookThenewinfrastructurepushaffirmsourviewthatsmartsupercitybuildup–akeyenablerofChina'sUrbanization2.0–isfast-tracked.WeexpectcapexinsixkeysegmentstoreachUS$180bnp.a.in2020-30,almost2xthepastthree-yearaverage,benefitingkeyplayers.RobinXing,JennyZheng,andZhipengCaiareeconomists.Theyarenotopiningonsecurities.MorganStanleydoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinMorganStanleyResearch.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofMorganStanleyResearch.InvestorsshouldconsiderMorganStanleyResearchasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.Foranalystcertificationandotherimportantdisclosures,refertotheDisclosureSection,locatedattheendofthisreport.+=Analystsemployedbynon-U.S.affiliatesarenotregisteredwithFINRA,maynotbeassociatedpersonsofthememberandmaynotbesubjecttoFINRArestrictionsoncommunicationswithasubjectcompany,publicappearancesandtradingsecuritiesheldbyaresearchanalystaccount.March22,202009:00PMGMT加入投行群微信：18622069179MMContributorsMO[e-mail]TED+JennyZheng,[e-mail][e-mail][e-mail]TED+KevinLuo,[e-mail][e-mail][e-mail][e-mail][e-mail][e-mail]TED+FranChen,[e-mail][e-mail][e-mail][e-mail]加入投行群微信：18622069179MMChina'sUrbanization2.0NewInfrastructureOpportunitiesHandbookThenewinfrastructurepushaffirmsourviewthatsmartsupercitybuildup–akeyenablerofChina'sUrbanization2.0–isfast-tracked.WeexpectcapexinsixkeysegmentstoreachUS$180bnp.a.in2020-30,almost2xthepastthree-yearaverage,benefitingkeyplayers.Whynow?ChinaiseyeingnewinfrastructureprojectstomitigatetheeconomicimpactofCOVID-19andtackleitsbigcityproblems.Thiseffortincludes5Gbasestations,IndustrialInternetofThings(IIoT),artificialintelligenceanddatacenters,ultrahighvoltage,inter-cityhigh-speedrailwaysandrailtransit,andelectricalvehiclechargingstations.It'spartofcountercyclicalmeasurestooffsetthenear-termgrowthshock–butitcouldalsofast-tracksmartsuper-cities,whichleveragenext-generationtechnologiestoboostlong-termproductivityandmakecitiesfasterandmorelivable.SeeTheRiseofChina'sSupercities:NewEraofUrbanization,October10,2019.Whatisthescopeofinvestment?Ourbottom-upestimatessug-gestthattheannualaverageinvestmentinnewinfrastructurewouldreachUS$180bnin2020-30,almost2xtheaverageoverthepastthreeyears,ledbyAIanddatacenters,intercityHSRandrailtransit,and5Gbasestations.Meanwhile,theaverageshareofprivatecapexinnewinfrastructurecouldalsopickupto38%inthenextdecade(vs.28%in2017-19),withmoreprivateparticipationinIIoTandrailways.Potentialpolicycatalyststowatchfor:1.Tax:ThiscouldincludetaxincentivesforIIoTadoptionandrelatedR&D,andcutsinelectricitychargesforheavypower-intensive5Gbasestations,datacenters,andEVchargingoperators.2.Financing:Wecouldseemoreissuanceoflocalgovernmentspecialbondstosupportrailwayconstruction,andcontinuedmarket-orientedreformstoincreasetheattractivenessofnewinfrastructureprojectstoprivateinvestors.3.Regulation:Possiblemeasuresincludesmootherprojectapprovalprocesses,lesspricingrestrictionfor5Gservices,andmorecarbonquotasfordatacentersinTier-1cities.Threethingsareneededtomanagetheriskofoverleveragingandovercapacity:lManageablesize:Weestimatethattheannualinvestmentinnewinfrastructurein2020-30isequivalentto8%ofChina'stotalannualinfrastructureFAIinthepastfiveyearsand20%ofincre-mentalinfrastructurecreditin2019.lMoretransparentfunding:Thiswouldentailhigherprivatesectorparticipationandmorelocalgovernmentspecialbondfinancing.lHigherassetquality:RailwayconstructionwouldfocusmoreonHSRineasternChinaandcity-suburbconnectivityincityclusters.Weenvisagemoreinvestmentindigitalinfrastructure,forwhichthereishighdemandinsmartsupercitydevelopment.ThenewinfrastructurepushhasincreasedourconvictioninChina'sthree-stageUrbanization2.0investmentplaybook:1)FromaconsumertoindustrialInternet;2)digitalizationofold-economyindustries;3)newlifestylesinsmartsupercities.Wehighlight22companiesasimmediatebeneficiariesofthis