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APRIL18TH–24TH2020FumblingforanexitstrategyTheshapeoftherecessionShouldfirmspaydividends?TheraceforavaccineIsChinawinning?Thegeopoliticalconsequencesofcovid-19ByinvitationInrecentyearsthemarketeconomyhasbecomethemarketsociety.Theviruscouldreversethattrend,saysMarkCarney,page54TheEconomistApril18th20203Contentscontinuesoverleaf1ContentsTheworldthisweek5AsummaryofpoliticalandbusinessnewsLeaders7Geopoliticsandcovid-19IsChinawinning?8TheoilindustryAviewofthefuture8Covid-19lockdownsFumblingfortheexitstrategy9Shoulddividendsbecut?Jampostponed10VotingbymailTwomythsLetters12OnAfrica,covid-19,MountEverest,Dutchswearwords,podiums,exactingBriefing13ProducingimmunityTheraceforavaccine16ConvalescentplasmaSurvivorsassavioursBritain17Whyisitsobad?18Missingfruit-pickers19Thecare-homecrisis19Thefailingschemeforsmallbusinesses20Glossymagazinesinagloomytime20Newspapersbattered21Deficitfinance21NoBrexitextension22BagehotBritain’sestablishmentstrikesbackEurope23Spain’snastypolitics24Thecoronabondsrow25Poland’selection25WildlifeinItaly26CharlemagneTwocrisesbytheageof35UnitedStates27Inequalityandthevirus28Collapsingcrimerates29Democratsinarray30Militaryrecruitment31LexingtonTheparadoxofthepandemicTheAmericas32Mexico’sbazooka-shypresident33BelloTheflickeringlightofliberalismMiddleEast&Africa34WhatSouthAfricalearnedfromAIDS35RemittancesandAfrica36GamingintheGulf36SaudiArabia’squagmire37QuackeryinIranOnthecoverThegeopoliticalconsequencesofcovid-19couldbelong-lasting—andunfortunate:leader,page7.IntheabsenceofAmericanleadership,Chinaseesachancetoboostitsclout,page42.Oncelionised,achroniclerofWuhan’sviruslockdownfacesfuryforsharingherstorywiththeWest:Chaguan,page45.Theturmoilinfinancialmarketsdemonstratestheworld’sgreedfordollars.ButitalsostrengthensChina’shand,page58•Shouldfirmspaydividends?Inthelockdownslump,whoshouldcutandwhoshouldpay?Leader,page9.Companiesareslashingpayoutstotheirowners,page50•FumblingforanexitstrategyOverwhelmedbythecrisis,mostgovernmentsareill-preparedforwhatcomesnext:leader,page8andanalysis,page46Weareworkinghardtoensurethatthereisnodis-ruptiontoprintcopiesofTheEconomistasaresultofthecoronavirus.Butifyouhavedigitalaccessaspartofyoursubscription,thenacti-vatingitwillensurethatyoucanalwaysreadthedigitalversionofthenewspaperaswellasallofourdailyjour-nalism.Todoso,visiteconomist.com/activate•TheraceforavaccineFindingonewhichworksisjustthebeginning:briefing,page13PEFC/16-33-582PublishedsinceSeptember1843totakepartin“aseverecontestbetweenintelligence,whichpressesforward,andanunworthy,timidignoranceobstructingourprogress.”EditorialofficesinLondonandalso:Amsterdam,Beijing,Berlin,Brussels,Cairo,Chicago,Johannesburg,Madrid,MexicoCity,Moscow,Mumbai,NewDelhi,NewYork,Paris,SanFrancisco,SãoPaulo,Seoul,Shanghai,Singapore,Tokyo,WashingtonDCSubscriptionserviceForourfullrangeofsubscriptionoffers,includingdigitalonlyorprintanddigitalcombined,visit:Economist.com/offersIfyouareexperiencingproblemswhentryingtosubscribe,pleasevisitourHelppagesat(51issues):UK..........................................................................................£179PEFCcertifiedThiscopyofTheEconomistisprintedonpapersourcedfromsustainablymanagedforestscertifiedbyPEFC©2020TheEconomistNewspaperLimited.Allrightsreserved.Neitherthispublicationnoranypartofitmaybereproduced,storedinaretrievalsystem,ortransmittedinanyformorbyanymeans,electronic,mechanical,photocopying,recordingorotherwise,withoutthepriorpermissionofTheEconomistNewspaperLimited.Publishedeveryweek,exceptforayear-enddoubleissue,byTheEconomistNewspaperLimited.TheEconomistisaregisteredtrademarkofTheEconomistNewspaperLimited.PrintedbyWalsteadPeterboroughLimited.4ContentsTheEconomistApril18th2020Volume435Number9190Asia38Myanmar’svexingrebels39Informalworkersandcovid-1939AsecondwaveinJapan40SouthKoreanelections41BanyanThesicklyGreatBarrierReefChina42Pursuingglobalpower45ChaguanFuryatadiaristInternational46Covid-19exitstrategiesBusiness49Corporateswindles50TheByteDancebash50Stiffingshareholders51Refashioninginventories52BartlebyLessonsfromthefrontline53SchumpeterActivistsaslumber54ByinvitationMarkCarneyFinance&economics55Whichcountriesfacethedeepestdownturn?56Banksbraceforlosses57StingystimulusinChina58Geopoliticsandthedollar59ButtonwoodThecaseforemerging-marketstocks60FreeexchangeCouldinflationreturn?Science&technology61Appsandcontact-tracing62Batsandviruses63DonaldTrumpandtheWHO63America’smegadrought64CombatinglonelinessBooks&arts65Braziliansoapsandthevirus66APassoversaga68Thehistoryofthecensus68Howtomakeabillion69JohnsonLearnalanguageathome70HomeEntertainmentListentoBertrandRussell70MakeyourownpastaEconomic&financialindicators72Statisticson42economiesGraphicdetail73Changesindigitalhabitsm