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DEBTREPORT2020EDITIONIIApril2020--PublicDisclosureAuthorizedPublicDisclosureAuthorizedPublicDisclosureAuthorizedPublicDisclosureAuthorized用户上传限个人学习使用百万免费报告天天更新手机商店搜索研报客app电脑网页版’spoorestcountriesthatrequestforbearance,toallowtimeforanassessmentoftheimpactofthecrisisandthepossibledebtreliefneedsofeachcountry.TheaimoftheseDebtReportsistoprovideuserswithanalysesofevolvingtrendsanddevelopmentsrelatedtoexternaldebtandpublicdebtinindividualcountriesandregionalgroups,withprimaryemphasisonlow-andmiddle-incomecountries,andtokeepusersabreastofdebt-relatedissuesandinitiatives.Thereportswill:•Complementthesummaryoverviewofborrowingtrendsin122low-andmiddle-incomecoun-triespresentedinInternationalDebtStatistics(IDS2020),publishedinOctober2019withre-gionalandcountryspecificanalysesonthecompositionandcharacteristicsofexternaldebtstocksandflows.Theanalyseswillbeunderpinnedbythedetailedloan-by-loandataonstocks,transactions(commitments,disbursementsanddebtservicepayments)andloantermscap-turedbytheWorldBankDebtorReportingSystem(DRS);•Drawfromthehigh-frequency,QuarterlyExternalDebtStatistics(QEDS)andquarterlyPublicDebtStatistics(PSDS)databasestoprovideuserswithsynthesesofemergenttrendsinexter-nalandpublicdebt,includingborrowingpatternsandcurrentdebtlevelsinbothhigh-incomecountriesandlow-andmiddle-incomecountries;•Provideuserswithinformationbriefsoncurrentissuesandongoinginitiativesaimedatimprov-ingexternalandpublicdebtmeasurementandmonitoring,fillingdatagaps,andenhancingthecoverageandharmonizationofinternationaldatasetsandrelateddatadissemination.DebtReport2020EditionIIisfocusedonapreliminaryestimateoftheevolutionofexternaldebtstocksin2019inlow-andmiddle-incomecountriesandcomparabledevelopmentsinhigh-incomecountries.Itelaboratesonanticipatedoutcomesattheregionallevelandidentifiesthekeycountriesdrivingthesetrends.Italsohighlightsongoingeffortstoenhancethemonitoringofdebtstatisticsandtransparencyinreporting.1OverviewThisdebtreportpresentsapreliminaryestimateofhowexternaldebtevolvedinlow-andmiddle-incomecountriesin2019,basedonhighfrequencydataonexternaldebtstocksprovid-edbycountriesreportingtotheQuarterlyExter-nalDebtStatistics(QEDS).Outcomestookplaceagainstthebackdropofadownturnintheglobaleconomywithgrowthdeceleratingtoanestimat-ed2.4percent,thelowestrateofexpansionsincethe2008globaleconomicandfinancialcrisis.Theslowdownwassynchronizedandwidespread,im-pactingbothadvancedeconomiesandlow-andmiddle-incomecountries.Acombinationoffac-torsimpactedtheglobaleconomyin2019,fore-mostofwhichwererisingtradebarriersandin-creasedgeopoliticaltensions.Growthprospectswerealsodampenedbycountryspecificout-comesinseveralofthelargestemergingmarketeconomiesandbystructuralfactorssuchaslowproductivitygrowthandageingdemographicsinadvancedeconomies.Thehighertariffsandheightenedpolicyuncertaintygeneratedbythe2ongoingtradedisputebetweentheUSAandChinaweighedoninternationaltradeandinvestorcon-fidenceandlong-rangespending.Theglobalde-mandformachineryandothercapitalgoodscon-tractedsharplybringingtheoverallgrowthintradevolumestoanearstandstill.Itrosebyonly1per-centinthefirsthalfof2019,thelowestlevelsince2012.Thesubduedoutlookalsoledtodeclinesinmostcommodityprices.Financialmarketsen-timentwasfragileformuchoftheyearasheight-enedriskaversiontriggeredsafetyflowsintoad-vancedeconomybondmarketswithaconcomitantdownturnincapitalinflowstolow-andmiddle-in-comecountriesandleavingsomecountriesfacedwithcurrencyandequitypricepressures.Growthinlow-andmiddle-incomecountriesisestimatedtohavedeclinedto3.5percentin2019,downfrom4.3percentin2018,drivenbythestructuralslowdowninChina,markedlylowerpaceofgrowthinsomeotherlargeemergingmarketeconomies-Brazil,In-dia,MexicoandRussiaandacutemacroeconomicstressinArgentina.1Thetoptenborrowers,definedasthosereportingthehighestend2018externaldebtstocktoQEDS,areArgentina,Brazil,China,India,Indonesia,Mexico,Russia,Thailand,Turkey,andSouthAfrica.I.Low-andMiddle-IncomeCountries-ExternalDebtoutcomesin2019T