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THEECONOMYINTHETIMEOFCOVID-19SEMIANNUALREPORTOFTHELATINAMERICAANDCARIBBEANREGIONAPRIL2020用户上传限个人学习使用百万免费报告天天更新手机商店搜索研报客app电脑网页版–april12,20204THEECONOMYINTHETIMEOFCOVID-19|ACkNOwlEDgEMENTsAcknowledgementsThisreportisajointproductoftheChiefEconomistofficeforLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean(LCRCE)andtheMacroeconomics,TradeandInvestment(MTI)GlobalPracticeattheWorldBank.Itsprepara-tionwasledbyMartinRama(ChiefEconomist,LCRCE),inclosecollaborationwithJorgeAraujo(Prac-ticeManager,ELCMU).SubstantivecontributionstothereportweremadebyDanielRiera-Crichton(ResearchEconomist,LCRCE)andGuillermoVuletín(SeniorEconomist,LCRCE)togetherwithJuliánEduardoDíazGutiérrez(ETconsultant,LCRCE)andLuisFranciscoMorano(ResearchAnalyst,LCRCE).KeytechnicalinputswereprovidedbyMaríaTeresaBalestrini(ETconsultant,LCRCE),JoséAndréeCamarenaFonseca(ResearchAnalyst,LCRCE)andLu-cilaVenturiGrosso(ResearchAnalyst,LCRCE).Thereportalsobuildsonananalysisofsatellitedataonni-trogendioxide,anditsrelationshipwitheconomicactivity,byStephenMorris(SeniorEconomist,USFederalReserveBoardofGovernors)andIreneEzran(SeniorResearchAssistant,FederalReserveBoardofGovernors).Country-specificmacroeconomicestimatesandwrite-upswereproducedbycountryeconomistsintheMTIGlobalPracticecoordinatedbyJamesRobertEzequielSampiBravoandincludingSoniaAraujo,DanielFran-ciscoBarcoRondán,ElenaBondarenko,FabianoSilvioColbano,TamoyaAnnikaLoisChristie,BarbaraCunha,StefanoCurto,SimonDavies,JuliánFolgar,FernandoGiuliano,MarekHanusch,JohannesHerderschee,EwaJoannaKorczyc,RohanLongmore,RuslanPiontkivsky,AnjaliKishoreShahaniMoreno,JulioVelascoandGa-brielRobertoZaourakAdditionalinputsonfinanceandgovernancewereprovidedbyteamsledbyAdrianFozzard(PracticeMan-ager,ELCC2)andZaferMustafaolgu(PracticeManager,ELCFN)respectively.Quy-ToanDoandJedFriedman(bothSeniorEconomists,DECPI),aswellasRobertaGatti(ChiefEconomist,GGHVP),providedvaluabletech-nicaladviceonthehealthandeconomicconsequencesoftheCovid-19epidemic.AdministrativesupportwasprovidedbyJacquelineLarrabure(ProgramAssistant,LCRCE).AlejandroEspino-sa(Sonideas),ShaneKimoRomig(LCREC),CarlosMolina(OnlineCommunicationsOfficer,LCREC)andGon-zaloVillamizar(Consultant,LCREC)contributedondesignandcommunication.ThecutoffdateforthisreportwasApril7,2020.5THEECONOMYINTHETIMEOFCOVID-19|ExECuTIVEsuMMArYExecutivesummaryForthelastfiveyearstheeconomicperformanceofLatinAmericaandtheCaribbeanhasbeendisap-pointing,withgrowthratesbeingbarelypositiveonaverage.Supportingthetrendsinsocialspendingmadepossiblebyunusuallyhighcommoditypriceswasbecomingincreasinglydifficult,whichcon-frontedmanycountrieswithpainfuladjustments.Over2019,socialunresteruptedacrosstheregion,reflect-ingawideninggapbetweenpopularexpectationsandeconomicandsocialrealities.Andthen,inearly2020,internationaloilpricescollapsed.ThisisalsowhentheCovid-19outbreakunfolded.CountriesinLatinAmericaandtheCaribbeanhavearichhistoryofsevereadverseshocks,includingprecip-itousfallsincommodityprices,dramatictighteningoffinancialconditions,andmajornaturaldisasters.Thecurrentexternalenvironmentoftheregionbearssimilaritieswiththishistory,whichimpliesthatpreviousex-periencewillbeveryvaluable.ButtheCovid-19epidemicbringsinanewdimension,asthemeasuresneededtocontaintheoutbreakoftheepidemicalsoresultinamajorsupplyshock.Thechannelsthroughwhichtheadverseexternalshockswillaffectdomesticeconomiesvaryfromcountrytocountry.DemandfromChinaandG7countrieswillfalldramatically,butpotentiallytodifferentextents,withdiverseimplicationsforcommodityexportersinSouthAmericaandforexportersofmanufacturedgoodsandservicesinCentralAmericaandtheCaribbean.Thedeclineofoilpriceswillhavedeleteriousconsequenc-esforcountrieswhoseexportsearningsandbudgetresourcescriticallydependonoil,butitwillbringrelieftonetoilimporters.Airtraffichasfallentoatrickleasflightshavebeenmassivelycancelledtopreventthespreadofthevirus.TheresultingcollapseintourismwillseverelyimpactcountriesintheCaribbeanbasin,butotherslessso.Asforthesupplyshock,LatinAmericaandtheCaribbeanisonlyintheinitialstagesofepidemic.WhilealltheG7economiessawtheirfirstcasesbytheendofJanuary2020,thefirstdeathsintheregionhappenedalmosttwomonthslater,inmid-March.Theonsetofapandemicischaracterizedbydeepuncertainty,espe-ciallyasthevirusisnewanditscontagiousnessandlethalityarenotwellknown.Becauseofthisuncertainty,mostgovernmentshavesensiblychosentoerrinthedirectionofsavinglives,“atanycost”ifneeded.Butseveralmonthsaftertheoutbreakoftheepidemic,thegrowingavailabilityofepidemiologicalandeconomicdataallowsassessingtheimpactofthemeasuresadopted.Forlatecomerstotheepidemic,thistimelagpro-videsanopportunitytoadjustthepolicyresponse.Countriesacrosstheregionhavebeentryingtomanagethetradeoffbetweenhealthcostsandeconomiccosts.Gettingthatbalance“right”requiresassessingboth