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ModologyofAutomobiles(newversion)EtsuyaMiyamotoPredictingtheGreatesthitsfor2020*NationwidestatisticsshowbeautifulcurvesofcyclesforvariousfactorsAstatisticalanalysisofcontrastingfactorsofcolors,patterns,materialandshapesforclothes,shoesandbagswasconducteduptill1982andtheircyclesweredetermined.Thedatawasavailablebecauseofretailstoreswhichhadrecordedandgatheredthedataofthetoptensales.Thedatawasforreferencepurposesforpurchasesforthenextyear.Thoughthecyclescanbeestimatedbyanalyzingthecontrastingfactorsofsalesstatisticsofcorporationsandnationwidechainstores,thecurvesareveryuneven.Thoughthecycleforthecontrastingfactorsof“round/square”canbeestimatedtobe30years,itisdifficulttoreallydetermineifitis7andahalfyears,15yearsor30years.Thereasonforthisisthoughttobebecausetherewasnonationwidestatisticsforfashionproducts.SoIdecidedtocheckwiththenationwidestatisticsforautomobiles(totalnumberregistered)forwhichthedesignisdeterminedbythe“round/square”factor.Asaresult,Ifoundthatthecyclesshowedabeautifulcurve.Sincethenationwidefigureswereavailable,withinjust3months,Ialsodiscoveredthecyclesforfactorsotherthan“round/square”andfactorsspecifictoautomobiles.Iputtogether“ModologyofAutomobiles”andsentittoautomakersinJapanandallovertheworld.Ireceivedlettersfromexecutivesthankingmeandsayingthatthey“readitinexcitement”.Automobiledesignersrefuteditclaimingthattheyhadcombinedfactorsandmemorizedthemsotherewasnowaysuchfactorscouldrepeatthemselvesletalonehavecycles.Inordertoprovethatneitherthefactorsnorthecyclesexist,thedesignerssubdividedtheautomobilesintocategoriessuchassportscars,luxurycarsandwagontypecarsandthenaddedupthenumbersagain.Butitdidnotmatterwhatcategoriestheautomobilesweresubdividedinto,asthoughthecurveswereunevenlikeforfashion,itcouldnotbedeniedthattherewasarepetitionofthe“round/square”factorafteracertainperiodoftime.Sonexttheyhitbacksaying“wehaveknownfromalongtimeagothatthereisanalternatingcycleof“round/square”inautomobiledesigns,butthatwasintheolddays.Todaysincecommunicationandtransportationmeanshavebecomequicker,thecycleshavealsoshortenedandtasteshavediversified.”SuchdesignersarestillpursuingtheshapesthatarepopularinUSandEuropeandsellwellatothercorporations.*ThecycleinUSandEuropewasthesameasinJapan.However,suddenlyoneday,thedesignerofToyotaautomobiles,RyuzoHoshino,whohadreadmy“Modology”publishedin1972,cametomeandasked“CanyougivemeadvicebecauseIwanttocheckifthecycleof“round/square”forautomobiledesignsinUSandEuropeisthesameasinJapan.Idecidedtoaccepthisrequest.Theyear1982is10yearsbeforethestyling(theentiresilhouette)ofautomobilesstartedtoshiftfrom3boxtypeto2boxtype.Therefore,ifthe“round/square”factorswhichdeterminetheshapeofthevehicleexactlyfitthechangefromasquaretoroundtrend,amiraclewillhaveoccurred.1AutomakersthroughouttheworldandinJapanwerestillclingingtothesquare(straightline)designdetailsthattheywereunabletobreakoutfromtherecessionduetooverproduction.ThegiantautomakerToyotawhichheld40%ofmarketshares,had27%shares,butwascaughtupbyNissanandfellintoaslump.Thecausewasalagintheirtechnology.Atthattime,MatsudawhichwasimitatingVWwastheleaderindesign.NissanwasabletocatchupwithToyotabecausethepresident,Mr.ToyotahaddelayedgoingalongwiththetechnologyoftheturboandtheautomaticgearwhichspreadfromUS&Europeremarkingthat“theywillbecomenomorethantrends(unefficient)inJapanwhereyoucannotdrivefast”.*Japaneseautomobileswhichledtheworldbybreakingawayfromimitations.ThedesignerofToyotaautomobiles,Hoshino,calculatedthenumberofregisteredautomobilesinUSandEuropeandconfirmedthatthoughthereisatimedifferenceandEuropeandUSare1-2yearsaheadofthedevelopingcountryJapan,thecyclefor“round/square”isstillthesameasJapan,ie.30years.Hethenchangedthesquareshapeofthesportscar“MarkII”toaround(curvedline)shapetocheckhishypothesis.Thisproducedamiracleinwhich“MarkII”wasrankedasoneofthetop10forautomobilesales.Afterthis,thedesignsforallToyotaautomobileswerechangedonebyonefromansquaretoroundshape.Otherautomakersonlypartiallyincorporatedtheroundshapetocertaindetailedpartsbutevenso,JapaneseautomobilesbrokeawayfromimitationsofEuropeandUSdesignandsocouldleadtheworld.AsJapaneseautomobilesledtheworldinautomobiledesigns,exportincreasedradically.AfteravideoclipofanUSMemberofCongresssmashingaJapaneseautomobilewithahammerwasbroadcastworld-wide,manufacturingplantsforJapaneseautomobileshavebeenincreasingallovertheworld.ToyotathenovertookGManddeclaredtobeNo.1intheworld.By1985,Toyotashareshadmomentarilyeached65%(accordingtomonthlystatistics).Asothermanufacturerscaughtupbyincorporatingtheroundshapeforthewholedesign,Toyotasharesdroppedbackto40%.Since1969,productionofautomobilesaroundtheworldandinJapanhasdrasticallydecreasedduetotheworldcreditcrisiswhichIhavecontinuouslypredictedtooccurevery80years.In“EconomicForecastingScience”(storedatapproximately2000publicanduniversitylibrariesworldwideand80%ofpublicanduniversitylibrariesinJapan)publishedinJanuary2008,Ipredictedtheinevitabilityofthe2ndworldcreditcrunchcrisisandatthesametimetheinevitabilityofastylinganddesignrevolutionforautomobilesandatechno