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5911Vol159No111200811JournalofChemicalIndustryandEngineering(China)November2008张新梅,陈国华(,510640):,,,;,;,,,(majorhazardinstallationunit,MHIU),,,:;;;;:TQ086:A:0438-1157(2008)11-2946-08ImpactprobabilityofdominoeffectcausedbyexplosionfragmentsinchemicaltankareaZHANGXinmei,CHENGuohua(InstituteofSafetyScienceandEngineering,SouthChinaUniversityofTechnology,Guangzhou510640,Guangdong,China)Abstract:Uncertaintiesandregularitiescoexistintheprojectionandflightprocessofexplosionfragments1Thetransientexplosionofchemicalvesselswasviewedaspolytropicprocess1Initialprojectionvelocityoffragmentswasdeducedbycombiningthepolytropicprocessstateequationsandtheworkdonebyexplosivegasespressure1Flightdistanceandflightvelocityequationswereobtainedbysolvingaccelerationequationsanddeterminingboundaryconditions1Takingtheseequationsastheobjectivefunctions,theuncertaintyfactorswereanalyzedandviewedasrandomvariables1Impactprobabilityindifferentdistancescouldbeobtainedbyrandomsamplingofsuchrandomvariablesandaccumulatingthefrequencyinaspecificflightdistance1Thendominoeffectimpactprobabilitymodelwasproposedbystudyingthesecondaryinfluenceandmultipleinfluencescausedbyfragments1Thestudyrevealsthemechanismoffragmentsgeneration,projection,flightandimpactontarget1Theresultslayafoundationforanalysisofdominoimpactriskcausedbyexplosivefragmentsinchemicalindustrialcomplex.Keywords:explosionfragment;flightregularity;projectionuncertainty;dominoeffect;impactprobability2008-01-16,2008-04-14::(1980)),,:(2007BAK22B04);()2008Receiveddate:2008-01-16.Correspondingauthor:Prof.CHENGuohua.E-mail:mmghchen@scut1edu1cnFoundationitem:supportedbytheNationalKeyTechnologyR&DProgram(2007BAK22B04).,,,[1],3:[2-5],Valerio[4]3Hauptmanns[6]Monte-Carlo,Gianfilippo[7],,,,,,,,11111,,,,,(),[8][9]pvC=const(1),1Fig11Flowofdominoeffectimpactprobabilitymodelv=V/m=43Pr3/m()Pr2H/m()(2),p0rnfC0=prnfC(3)(3),ra,,[10],W=Qrar0Spdr(4)(4),W=Sp0r01-nfCr0ranfC-1-1(5)W=12DSQfv2Fragment(6)(5)(6),#2947#11:vFragment=2p0r0nfC-11-r0ranfC-1(7)(7),,112[7,11-12]d2xdt2+kdxdt2=0(8)d2ydt2+-1nkdydt2+g=0(9),k=CDQa/2DQf;n,,,n=2,,,n=1,Ûx(t)Ûy(t)x(t)y(t):Ûx(t)=ucos1+ktvFragmentcos(10)x(t)=1kln(1+ktvFragmentcos)(11):Ûy(t)=tan(B-Agt)A(12)y(t)=-12klnA2Ûy(t)2+1A2(vFragmentsin)2+1(13)Ûy(t)=1-exp(Vt-2B)A[1+exp(Vt-2B)](14)y(t)=Y+(2k)-1ln[1-A2Ûy(t)2](15)(10)~(15)A=(k/g)015B=arctan(AvFragmentsin)V=2k/AY=(2k)-1ln[A2(vFragmentsin)2+1]22H,H=0,Xmax2,2Fig12Analysisflowofflighttrajectoryandflightvelocity,,:,,211[11,13],xi=exp[-2lnr1cos2Pr2Rx+Lx]=exp[-2lnr1cos2Pr2@017584+214](16),,,[0b,90b]212,,,1m,1m#2948#59Xmax+1,,IMP(x)3311,:iprobij;i,probiiprobij@probi,312,j(17)ENi=1iXjcijprobi=probj(17)ji,cij=0,,probprimary=prob1=1313,(17),N,N-1N-1,prob1=1,c1jprob1=c1j(j=2,,,N)(17)ENi=2cijprobi=-c1j(18)C=c22c32,cN2c23c33,cN3ssssc2Nc3N,cNNPROB=prob2prob3sprobN,CP=-c12-c13s-c1N(18)C@PROB=CP,i=j,cij=-1NN-1,N-1314,3,,,3Fig13Schematicdiagramoffragmentprojection,,(GB18218)2000),,,,,(4),(18)ijcij#2949#11:cij=ninjsj@2PIMPxmax-IMPxminPx2max-x2min=2ninjsjIMPxmax-IMPxminx2max-x2min(19)(5),ijcijcij=2ninjsjIMPXmax-IMPxminX2max-x2min(20),,46141,TK3TK46Fig16Lay-outofchemicaltanksbase¹~½)MHIUnumbers1Table1EquipmentconsideredincasestudiesTankNo1Volume/m3SubstancePressure/PaFailurecauseTK13500LPG0170surfaceheatingTK21000LPG0170fragmenthitTK3,TK4400chlorine0140fragmenthitTK5,TK6300ammonia0150fragmenthitTK7)TK144000ethanol0115fragmenthit,TK5TK6,TK7~TK145MHIU6TK1,147714Fig17SketchoffourteentanksinfluencedareaTK1,52#2950#5925Table2ImpactrelationoffiveMHIUsMHIUInfluencedMHIU¹primaryaccidentunitº¹»¹,º,¼¼¹,º,»½¹,º(TK7,TK8,TK9,TK11,TK12influenced),»(TK7,TK8,TK9,TK10,TK11,TK12influenced),¼7[(19)(20)],5,33()Table3ImpactprobabilitiesbetweentwoMHIUs(columntoline)MHIUMHIU¹º»¼½¹-10000º5154@10-4-1000»6102@10-41132@10-3-14139@10-30¼5131@10-41110@10-35114@10-3-10½1103@10-22164@10-21172@10-16193@10-2-135,(19)C=-10001132@10-3-14139@10-301110@10-35114@10-3-102164@10-21172@10-16193@10-2-1CP=-5154@10-4-6102@10-4-5131@10-4-1103@10-2C,CP4PROB=5154@10-46105@10-45134@10-41104@10-2,40b,,[8][10-11,14]15%~30%,4,4Table4EnergyratiobetweenprojectenergyoffragmentsandtotalexplosionenergyMHIUEnergyratio/%¹18131º18112»17170¼17188½17109,,,,,,,,,,,,,5,#2951#11:,,;,,,;,;,,;,CD)))cij)))ijg))),m#s-2H))),mIMP(xmax))))ixmaxIMP(xmin))))ixmink)))m))),kgn)))nf)))(nf=2,nf=3)ni)))inj)))p))),Pap0))),Paprobi)))ir))),mra))),mr0))),mS))),m2sj))),m2t)))V))),m3v)))(),m3#kg-1vFragment))),m#s-1W)))i,N#mXmax))),mx))),mxmax,xmin)))ji,my))),mD))),m))),(b)C)))Qa))),kg#m-3Qf))),kg#m-3References[1]HauptmannsU1Aprocedureforanalyzingtheflightofmissilesfromexplosionsofcylindricalvessels1JournalofLossPreventionintheProcessIndustries,2001(14):395-402[2]KhanFaisalI,AbbasiSA1DOMIFFECT(dominoeffect):user-friendlysoftwarefordominoeffectanalysis1EnvironmentalModelling&Software,1998(13):163-177[3]KhanFaisalI,AbbasiSA1Anassessmentofthelikelihoodofoccurrence,andthedamagepotentialofdominoeffect(chainofaccidents)inatypicalclusterofindustries1JournalofLossPreventionintheProcessIndustries,2001(14):283-306[4]ValerioCozzani,Gianfi