是什么决定了商业银行盈利的可持续性-基于中-外银行的对比分析-周晔

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1972-。、。———、100070。DOI10.13962/j.cnki.37-1486/f.2015.06.013F830A2095-3410201506-0099-07、。《TheBanker》2013100096。。。“”。。。。。、。。MIRJANA20061、。DietrichWanzenried20112·99·20156、、。LozanoPasiouras20103。。Demirgiiu-KuntHuiainga19994。。Dietrichetal.20105、、、。。HorstLoechel20116。Tzu-PuChang201272002-2009、。。、。20148502005-2012、。20149。201310。201411。。201112“”。2012131995-201017NIM、。201314142004-2011。、。、、、。、、1002004-2013·001·。、。、ROEROA。2004ROAA。。GunjiaYuan201015TA、、ETCIR。。GDP。GDP。。11ROAA/LNTANIMET/。CIRNPL/NII/CPIGDPRGDP2004-2013、、bankscope。、、100。bank-scope633505654。100、1383377。。WORLDdatabank。2·101·20156GDP。2ROAALNTAETCIRNIMNPLNIICPIRGDP0.8416.057.1844.392.923.5612.613.0910.720.8715.495.7339.572.751.9810.022.3110.403.0121.4359.06350.836.6879.8984.146.5814.20-6.5311.40-13.7117.720.420.00-129.161.269.200.692.076.8423.170.996.4717.671.851.69377377377377377377377377377ROAALNTAETCIRNIMNPLNIICPIRGDP0.9718.789.9959.993.3441.451.34105.791.431.0818.629.2958.793.2541.100.63106.172.676.0021.8934.50246.1316.92133.0936.57111.663.59-8.0913.17-1.760.00-1.78-109.830.0096.72-3.501.031.064.4118.471.8925.012.325.162.39633633633633633633633633633ROAALNTAETCIRNIMNPLNIICPIRGDP0.3919.914.3364.631.3438.223.23107.000.910.4419.813.9860.581.1840.262.42108.612.112.6422.0615.61323.374.59213.5035.72112.433.31-8.0917.49-0.4623.86-1.24-320.000.0097.58-4.290.730.892.1226.310.8633.322.944.512.70505505505505505505505505505ROAALNTAETCIRNIMNPLNIICPIRGDP0.1917.885.4562.281.4420.544.35100.330.780.2517.475.0262.241.5016.323.90100.272.046.1221.4650.97174.774.27312.7020.43101.684.00-16.9816.18-16.888.97-0.46-328.720.0099.59-6.291.021.174.4014.160.4530.502.490.593.29654654654654654654654654654bankscopeWORLDdatabank。、GLSStata12。Hausman。3。、。31%0.2455-1.13103ROAALNTA0.2455**2.48790.41652.1798-1.1310***-3.48230.05720.5651ET-0.0050-0.62750.2808***3.50600.2843**2.51110.02270.8186NIM0.1897***4.79180.11290.9847-0.4537-1.01510.1605**2.17360CIR-0.0146***-5.7833-0.0050***-3.1069-0.0110**-2.5011-0.0138***-3.4686NPL-0.0102-1.5249-0.0879***-5.0271-0.1419**-2.5281-0.1378***-2.9054NII0.0040**1.92700.00070.4221-0.00010.21060.0123**2.0807CPI-0.0026-0.2826-0.0470***-4.0569-0.0388-0.5558-0.0219**-2.2347RGDP-0.0406***-3.44090.00710.60040.00150.12680.0775***5.1762C-2.2684**-2.4544-3.6602-1.206324.7037**2.55561.84241.1521FValueR2AdjustedR2Obs.14.58960.85140.79303774.76170.56210.44405052.73710.34910.22166547.99640.61970.4976633t***、***1%、5%10%。·201·。NIM1%5%。NPL。、1%-0.0879-0.1419-0.1378。。NII0.01230.0040。。ET-0.0050。。。CIR1%。。CPICPI。。、GDP。2012。ROEROAA4。ROAA。。4LNTA0.2887***6.4833-0.1141-0.9064-1.1318***-3.4466-0.2673***-3.0326ET-0.0040-0.48300.2563***3.27260.2847**2.51620.01630.5893NIM0.2162***5.24820.10560.9099-0.4611-1.04440.1802**2.2780CIR-0.0142***-5.4751-0.0045***-3.1594-0.0117***-2.5302-0.0134***-3.0750NPL-0.0090-1.3691-0.1117***-5.4584-0.1409**-2.5519-0.2070***-4.4310NII0.0043**2.00860.0028*1.6700-0.00010.18300.0135**2.1422C-3.7952***-4.95111.95320.735020.8711***3.31095.7450***3.5958F-ValueR2AdjustedR2Obs.14.27860.84520.78603774.19000.52440.39925052.79230.34860.22376546.96110.558110.4976633t***、***1%、5%10%。·301·20156、、、1002004-2013。。。。。III。。。。、。。。。1MIRJANAPEJIC'BACH.FinancialStructureandtheProfitabilityofCroatianBanksJ.jstor20062DietrichA.WanzenriedG.DeterminantsofBankProf-itabilityBeforeandDuringtheCrisisEvidencefromSwitzerlandJ.JournalofInternationalFinancialMarketsInstitutionsandMoney201121307-327.3Lozano-VivasA.PasiourasF.TheImpactofNon-traditionalActivitiesontheEstimationofBankEfficiencyInter-nationalEvidenceJ.JournalofBankingandFinance2010341436-1449.4Demirg-KuntA.HarryHuizinga.DeterminantsofCommercialBankInterestMarginsandProfitabilitySomeInter-nationalEvidenceJ.TheWorldBankEconomicReview199902379-408.5DietrichA.WanzenriedG.RebelA.Cole.WhyAreNet-interestMarginsAcrossCountriesSoDifferentR.Pa-perpresentedatthe2010AnnualMeetingoftheMidwesternFi-nanceAssociationHeldFebruary25-272010inLasVegasNVUSA.6HorstLoechelHelenaXiangLi.China’sChangingBusinessModelofBankingJ.CEIBSEU-ChinaBMTWork-ingPaperSeriesNo.102010.7Tzu-PuChangJiu-LiHuRayYeutieuChouLeiSun.TheSourcesofBaukProductivityGrowthinChinaduring2002-2009ADisaggregationViewJ.JournalofBanking&Finance2012361997-2006.8.———J.20140243-51.9.J.20110557-66.10.EB/OL.http//finance.sina.com.cn/review/hgds/20130719/201016185394.sht-·401·ml2013.11.———J.20140650-59.12.2000-2009J.20110138-44.13.、———17J.2012019-15.14.J.20130588-96.15HiroshiGunjiaYuanYuan.BankprofitabilityandthebanklendingchannelEvidencefromChinaJJournalofAsianEconomics201021129141.WhatDeterminestheSustainabilityoftheCommercialBankProfit———AComparativeAnalysisbetweenDomesticandForeignBanksZhouYeZhangMingSchoolofFinancetheCapitalUniversityofEconomicsandBusinessBeijing100070ChinaAbstractAmongmanyfactorsaffectingthecharacteristicsofChina'scommercialbanks'profitabilitythecompetitivenessofthecom-mercialbankinChinaismainlydependentonnetinterestmarginsandexpansionofassetscale.Assetqualityisnotansignificantim-pactondomesticbanks.Comparedwiththecommercialbanksofdevelopedcountrieswhosefinancialsystemare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