自然灾害对经济影响的研究述评

©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.:2009208206:(:8SJD790047)2007(:07XWA08)2007:1.(1979-),,,;2.(1972-),,,()20093JournalofChinaUniversityofMining&Technology(SocialSciences)200991,2(1.,210096;2.,221116):,,,,,,,:;;:F061.2:A:10092105X(2009)0320061207,,,,,,,?:,,,,,,,,:,,,,,,CRED()1900,,CRED197020021970s1980s1990s19702002853174725256480()7.314.419.251.11.282.241.951.88(/2002)13202560663011300GDP0.450.650.820.64:CREDRasmussen(2004)[1],30,,,902500,70!20,,90©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(1798),,,,,,?,,90,,,,,Pereira(2003),1755,,,[2]Pereira(2003),GDP32%48%,,:,;,[3]Seluck(2001)1999,,GDP4.5%Seluck,,[4],Narayan(2003),,,,GDP,[5]2005,GDP7%28%,GDP0.10.4[6]IMFADB(),GDP11.4,,,25[6]Ramussen(2004)Freeman(2003)70,,:(1),GDP,,20%;(2),,,;(3),,,;(4),[1],[7],,,,:(1),;(2),;(3),;(4),,;(5),,,,:GDPDDAMG(big)-9.561.33-9.72DDAMG(cumulative2big)-11.391.99-11.68DDAMG-0.961.58-1.09DDAMG(cumulative)-1.172.34-1.33:Noy(2008)[8];,cumulative26()20099©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(2008),,Noy(2008),yit=i+yit-1+rDMSit+Xit+it,yGDP,DMS,X()NoyDMS:(DDAMG)GDP,Noy(2008),,,,,,Noy,[8]SkidmoreToya(2002),(19601990),[9],,,,,,Barro,:1960-1990(1)(2)(3)(4)Totalclimatic_D0.0046(2.9380)Totalgeologic_D-0.0044(-2.1617)Perlandclimatic_D0.0022(3.5224)Pergeologic_D-0.0032(-2.7725)Totalclimatic_C0.0054(1.7833)Totalgeologic_C-0.0029(-0.5995)Perlandclimatic_C0.0033(2.9821)Pergeologic_C-0.0011(-0.9389)89898989R20.59210.61550.56680.5945:SkidmoreToya(2002)[9];Total,Perland;climatic,geologic;DDavis(1992)[10],CCRED,SkidmoreToya(2002)()SkidmoreToya(2002),,,,,SkidmoreToya(2002),,,SkidmoreToya(2002),,,::,,;,SkidmoreToya(2002),,(),20033620093,:©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.[11],2005,,,,,,,,()(SachsWarner,1997;,2006;,2008),,,,(),(DelongSummers,1992;Mankiw,1992),,,,,,,,,,,,Noy(2008),,,,,,,,(),(),19702001,,19[12],,,,,,(2008),,,,[13],,,,,,,,19984%,28%,443(Abbott,2004)[12],,,,,(),,,?,,,,[9],[14],[15][16],Popp(2006):,,;;,[11]SkidmoreToya(2002)TFP,TFP,TFP[9]Cuaresma(2007)TFP[15],CoeHelpman(1995),,46()20099©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.[17],R&D,,GDP,,,,,,,SkidmoreToya,,,,,,,,,?,,,50%,10%20%[7],,,,,,,1992,[18],,,,,,,,,,,,,,,[19](Samaritandilemma),,,,,,,,,(CatastrophicBond),,,,,,,,,(WeatherDerivatives)(ContingentSurplusNotes)(CatastropheEquityPuts)(ExchangeTradedCatastropheOptions)(CatastropheSwaps)[18],,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,[13]Freeman(2003),90,400,2800[7]Owens(2003),,,5620093,:©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.[20](Skoufias,2003),,Blomquist(2002),[21],,[20],[22](Skoufias,2003;Horwich,2000),,,,,,;,;;(),;;;(),;;()();;:Blomquist(2002)[21],,:,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,[1]Ramussen,T.N..2004.MacroeconomicimplicationsofnaturaldisastersintheCaribbean.IMFworkingpaper,2004,WP/04/224.[2]RessellR.Dynes.theLisbonEarthquakein1755:ContestedMeaningsintheFirstModernDisaster[J].TsuInfoAlert,2006,V.2,no.4:16.[3]Pereira,A.S..Theeconomicimpactof1755Lisbonearthquake.CenterforhistoricaleconomicsandrelatedresearchatYorkUniversityWorkingPaper,200303/06.[4]Seluck,F.,Yeldan,E..Onthemacroeconomic66()20099©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.[J].AppliedEconomicsLetters8,2001:483-488.[5]Narayan,P.K..Macroeconomicimpactofnaturaldisastersonasmallislandeconomy:EvidencefromaCGEmodel[J].AppliedEconomicsLetters10,2003:721-723.[6]Athukorara,P.,Resosudarmo,B.P.TheIndianOceanTsunami:EconomicImpact,DisasterManagementandLessons.AustralianNationalUniversityWorkingPaper2005-05.[7]Freeman,P.K.,Keen,M.,Mani,M..Dealingwithincreasedriskofnaturaldisasters:Challengesandoptions.IMFWorkingPaper,2003,WP/03/197.[8]Noy,I..Themacroeconomicconsequencesofdisasters[J].JournalofDevelopmentEconomics(2008),doi:10.1016/j.jdeveco.2008.02.005.[9]Skidmore,M.,Toya,H..Donaturaldisasterspromotelong-rungrowth?[J].EconomicInquiry,2002,40(4):664-687.[10]Davis,L.,1992.Naturaldisasters:FromtheBlackPlaguetotheEruptionofMt.Pinatubo.NewYork:FactsonFile.[11]Popp,A..2006.Theeffectsofnaturaldisastersonlongrungrowth.MajorThemesinEconomicsSpring,2006:61-82.[12]Abbott,P..Naturaldisaster[M].NewYork:McGrawHill,2004[13],,.[J].,2008(19-20).[14]Okuyama,Y..Economicsofnaturaldisasters:Acriticalreview.RegionalResearchInstituteofWestVirginiaUniversityResearchPaper,2003-12.[15]Cuaresma,J.C.,Hlouskova,J.,Obersteiner,M..Naturaldisastersascreativedestruction?Evidencefromdevelopingcountries[J].EconomicInquiry,2007,46(2):214-226.[16].[M].,1999.[17]Coe,D.T.,Helpman,E..InternationalR&Dspillovers[J].EuropeanEconomicReview,2007,39:859-887.[18]Pollner,J..Managingcatastrophicdisasterriskusingalternativeriskfinancingandpooledinsurancesystems.WorldBankTechnicalPaper,2001,No.495