财务策划步骤和方法

1FinancialPlanningandForecasting2FinancialPlansFinancialplansevaluatetheeconomicsbehindthestrategyandoperations.Theyconsistofsixsteps:1.Projectedfinancialstatements:toanalyzetheeffectsoftheoperatingplanonprojectedprofitsandfinancialratios.2.Determinethefundsneededtosupporttheplan.3.Forecastfundsavailability.4.Establishandmaintainasystemofcontrolstogoverntheallocationanduseoffundswithinthefirm.5.Developproceduresforadjustingthebasicplaniftheeconomicforecastsuponwhichtheplanwasbaseddonotmaterialize6.Establishaperformance-basedmanagementcompensationsystem.3SalesForecastSalesforecastsareusuallybasedontheanalysisofhistoricdata.Anaccuratesaleforecastiscriticaltothefirm’sprofitability:Under-optimisticToomuchinventoryand/orfixedassets•Lowturnoverratio•Highcostofdepreciationandstorage•Write-offsofobsoleteinventory•Lowprofit•Lowrateofreturnonequity•Lowfreecashflow•DepressedstockpriceOver-optimistic•Companywillfailtomeetdemand•MarketsharewillbelostSalesForecast4ThePercentofSalesMethodThisisthemostcommonmethod,whichbeginswiththesalesforecastexpressedasanannualgrowthrateindollarsalerevenue.Manyitemsonthebalancesheetandincomestatementareassumedtochangeproportionallywithsales.5ThePercentofSalesMethod:AnExample*Denotesspontaneous,whichmeansincreasespontaneouslywithsales.•Allassetsarespontaneous.Ontheliabilityandequityside,AccountsPayableandAccrualsaretheonlyspontaneousfunds.•Duringthenextyear,salesincreaseby15%resultingina15%increaseinTotalAssets(4,374).Hence,theassetsideonnextyear’sbalancesheetmustgoupby15%.Also,thespontaneousfundsontheliabilitysidemustalsoincreaseby15%.*Cash1,080*AccountsPayable4,320*Receivables6,480*Accruals2,880*Inventory9,000NotesPayable2,100*TCA16,560TCL9,300*FixedAssets12,600Bonds3,500CommonStock3,500RetainedEarnings12,860*TotalAssets29,160X1.15=33,534∆4,374Total(L+E)29,160Weneedincreaseontheassetside.BalanceSheet6Example(cont’d):*Cash1,080*AccountsPayable4,320X1.15=4,968∆648*Receivables6,480*Accruals2,880X1.15=3,312∆432*Inventory9,000NotesPayable2,100*TCA16,560TCL9,300*FixedAssets12,600Bonds3,500CommonStock3,500RetainedEarnings12,860*TotalAssets29,160X1.15=33,534∆4,374Total(L+E)29,160BalanceSheetThespontaneousitemsontheliabilitiessideoftheprojectedbalancesheetmustalsoincreaseby15%.7Example(cont’d):IncomeStatement20012002*Sales36,000X1.15=41,400*OperatingCosts32,440X1.15=37,306*EBIT3,560X1.15=4,094Interest560560EBT3,0003,534Keep0.60.6NetIncome18002,120Keep(45%dividends)0.550.55RetainedEarnings9901,166*Keepistheaftertaxresult(1-tax)8Example(cont’d):Retainedearningswillalsoincreasebutnotatthesamerateassales.The2002amountofREistheoldamountplustheadditiontoretainedearnings,whichwecalculatedintheprojectedincomestatement.SincetheTA=TLandtheTAhaveincreasedto33,534,whileTLhaveincreasedto31,406,thereareadditionalfundsneeded(AFN)of2,128ontheliabilitiesside.2001200220012002*Cash1,080*AccountsPayable4,320X1.15=4,968∆648*Receivables6,480*Accruals2,880X1.15=3,312∆432*Inventory9,000NotesPayable2,1002,100*TCA16,560TCL9,30010,380*FixedAssets12,600Bonds3,5003,500CommonStock3,5003,500RetainedEarnings12,860+1,16614,026*TotalAssets29,160X1.15=33,534∆4,374Total(L+E)29,16031,40633,5342,128(short)BalanceSheetTotalAssetsAFN9Example(cont’d):TherearetwocategoriesofsourcesfortheAFN:Issuanceofnewstocks(equity)UsesomecombinationofdebtInthisexample,thereareinternallygeneratedfundsfrom:RetainedEarningsAccountsPayableandAccruals10Example(cont’d):2001200220012002*Cash1,080*AccountsPayable4,320X1.15=4,968∆648*Receivables6,480*Accruals2,880X1.15=3,312∆432*Inventory9,000NotesPayable2,1002,100*TCA16,560TCL9,30010,380*FixedAssets12,600Bonds3,5003,500CommonStock3,5003,500RetainedEarnings12,860+1,16614,026*TotalAssets29,160X1.15=33,534∆4,374Total(L+E)29,16031,40633,5342,128(short)InternallyavailableChangeinTA4,374Less:RE(1,166)3,208ChangeinA/P(648)ChangeinAccruals(432)2,128BalanceSheetTotalAssetsAFNHavetogotothecapitalmarkets11FinancingFeedbacksIfthebusinessissuesnewdebtandcommonstock,thetotalamountofinterestanddividendspaidwillchange.Becauseinterestanddividendsmustbepaidwithcash,anyincreaseinthesecostswilldecreasethefundsthefirmhastoinvest—thatis,theamountofincomeaddedtoretainedearningswillbelessthanoriginallyforecasted.Whenweconsidertheeffectsoftheincreasedinterestanddividendpayments,wefindthattheAFNisactuallygreaterthanoriginallyexpected.Financingfeedbacks—thatis,theeffectsonthefinancialstatementsofactionstakentofinanceforecastedincreasesinassets—mustbeconsideredtodeterminetheexactamountofAFN.12Example(cont’d):Borrowat10%(NotesPayable).Itmeansthatnextyeartheinterestwillbe560+(10%*2,128)IncomeStatementFirstPassSecondPass2001200220022002*Sales36,000X1.15=41,40041,400*OperatingCosts32,440X1.15=37,30637,306*EBIT3,560X1.15=4,0944,094Interest560560+213773EBT3,0003,5343,321Keep0.60.60.6NetIncome18002,1201,993Keep(45%dividends)0.550.550.55RetainedEarnings9901,166-1,096=70(AFN)*Keepistheaftertaxresult(1-tax)Insteadofretaining1,166,thecompanyretains1,096becauseoftheinterest.Theendresultsisthatthecompanyhastoraise2,128+70=2198