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华中科技大学硕士学位论文建设项目造价风险管理方法研究姓名：王斌申请学位级别：硕士专业：管理科学与工程指导教师：杜春艳20060508IIIAbstractConstructionprojectcostmanagementisaneffectivemethodtocontrolprojectinvestmentandincreaseincome.However,muchuncertaintyandriskexistinthecourseofprojectconstruction,whichbringsuncertaintiestotheprojectcost.Therefore,constructionprojectcostcanbedividedintocertaincostandriskcost.Theriskcosthappensrandomly,whichliesontheoccurrenceofrelatedrisk.Riskcostisthefocusofcostmanagement,butcurrentcostmanagementtheoryfailstoprovideguaidanceinthisarea.Thethesiswillfocusonthetechniqueresearchonriskcostmanagement,andproposeanresolventforthewidecostmanagementinChina.Thethesisfirstoutlinesthedefinitionsofconstructionprojectcostmanagementandconstructionprojectriskmanagementandstudiestherelationshipbetweenprojectriskandriskcost,basedonwhichthecostriskmanagementmodelforconstructionprojectsisdevelopedtorealizetheintegrativemanagementofriskandcost.Twosectionsofthethesisareorganizedtosystematicallystudythistheory.Thefirstoneproposestheresearchmethodonconstructionprojectcostinformation,andspecifiesthefactorsinfluencingcosts.Thenthetechniqueofdetectingandmeasuringthecostriskfactorsisstudied,andMonteCarloSimulationisintroducedtocalculatetheriskcost.Thesecondsectioninvestigatesthemethodofcontrollingconstructionprojectriskcost.ThethesisprovesthatMonteCarloSimulationisaneffectivecostcalculationmethod,andanalyzesthefeasibilityandnecessityoftheprojectcostriskmanagement,whichprovidesthetechnicalandmethodologicalsupportfortheriskmanagementforconstructionprojects.KeywordsRiskManagementCostManagementRiskCostUncertainlyMonteCarloSimulation111.11.1.11019941592620047047712%[1]51-110%2[2][3][4]1326.882[5]1.1.220903(),1.21.2.1RACE-I1992(RiskManagementCommittee)1995AACE-I1998AACE-IAACE-I206020904(TotalCostManagementTCM)1992(TheAssociationfortheAdvancementofCostEngineeringInternationalthroughTota1CostManagement---AACE-I)[6]1.2.2[7][9]1.3[8]5123412341-26722.12.1.1[10]12[11]128342.1.21[12]26.8823492.1.3[12]12342.2101(S)123452121132.32.3.11“”[14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21](PMI)12[22]2()()21“”“”f()“”“”03[22]121332-22.3.2[24]114232.3.31?215312345123162.3.4[25]2-32.42.4.1172-41562340.51123456161315334182-52.4.2[18]112219123432-62.4.3202.4.42-71221422pp=0p=112343.13.1.1231234567893.1.2243.23.2.125112342:1250%-80%:123[26][27]263.2.21[28]123452SWOTSWOTSWOTSWOTStrength()Weakness()Opportunity()Threat()SWOTSWOT14—1272SOV3WO4ST5WTSWOT123433-21282293()45678303.33.3.11ßS1231313-33-323-43-53-43ßßßß322[38]3[29]1233[30]3[33]44()[29]StephenGrey3-535ß13-634123452%100%50%100%50%123453.3.23512341423-71234365376789384[9][16]4.1Monte-Carlo[33][34][35]()KKK39KK),,,(21nXXXfY⋅⋅⋅=4-1nXXX,,,21⋅⋅⋅),,,(21nXXXf⋅⋅⋅Y),,,(21nXXX⋅⋅⋅)x,,x,x(nii2i1⋅⋅⋅YXYiYi)x,,x,xnii2i1⋅⋅⋅fYYnXXX,,,21⋅⋅⋅[29]4.24.2.13ß40iC∑=iCC1C2C……iCY4-14112343534NN6N4.2.2[01][01][01]42[01]1[01][33](1)(2)(3)(4)MMM)(mod1Mayynn=+n=0123…4-2ay0M4-21+nynayMMyn≤+1Mynnx11+=+4-3(1)y0Ma43(2)4-2y1y2y3…(3)4-3x1x2x3…1+nxM12-=kMk38±=taty032-=kT[34]21[ab]x[ab]x⎪⎪⎪⎩⎪⎪⎪⎨⎧≤≤-=,0,1)(bxaabxf4-4⎪⎪⎩⎪⎪⎨⎧≤≤--=bxbxaabaxaxF10)x(4-5F(x)1)(0≤≤XF(ab)(01)R)(1RFX-44(45)aabRX+-=)(4-6ab2⎪⎪⎩⎪⎪⎨⎧≤≤---≤≤---=bxcabacbxcxaabacaxxf,))(()(2,))(()(2)(4-7⎪⎪⎪⎪⎩⎪⎪⎪⎪⎨⎧≥≤≤----≤≤---≤=bbxcabcbbxcxaabacaxaFx1))(()(1))(()(x,0)x(224-8R(01)Rx⎪⎪⎪⎪⎩⎪⎪⎪⎪⎨⎧≤≤----≤≤---=bxcabcbbxcxaabacaxR))(()(1))(()(224-9a≤x≤c))((abacRax--+=cabacRaa≤--+≤))((abacR--≤≤04-10c≤x≤b49))()(1(abcbRbx----=c≤))()(1(abcbRb----≤b451≤≤--Rabac4-1101RRabac--))()(1(abcbRbx----=4-12))((abacRax--+=4-13x014.2.3[35]X)(XE)(XD0)(≠XDNXD)(ale=4-14a1alN462211221alpa-=∫∞--dtetalaal)(XDN4.3,4-2C147.C∑==niiCC14-1524-1702008318010521088000116200147400910001178001480003580043100553008200010300012460031900039500047200015700198202370060500688508690081001032012400864001106401423003484.24%%95-95.510.021108-108.52894.82321095.5-9630.054108.5-1093275.45353796-96.520.036109-109.52774.62381496.5-9750.0811109.5-1102454.08405997-97.550.0816110-110.52604.33431997.5-9840.0720110.5-1112353.92455498-98.5180.3038111-111.52103.50476498.5-99170.2855111.5-1121903.17495499-99.5240.4079112-112.51732.88512799.5-100340.57113112.5-1131632.725290100-10.5500.83163113-113.51362.275426100.5-101580.97221113.5-1141312.185557101-101.5701.17291114-114.5971.625654101.5-102911.52382114.5-115891.485743102-102.51342.23516115-115.5721.205815102.5-1031292.15645115.5-116500.835865103-103.51342.23779116-116.5390.655904103.5-1041823.03961116.5-117330.555937104-104.51863.101147117-117.5310.525968104.5-1052143.571361117.5-118120.205980105-105.52133.551574118-118.570.125987105.5-1062474.121821118.5-11950.085992106-106.52784.632099119-119.530.055995106.5-1072714.522370119.5-12010.025996107-107.52754.582645120-120.510.025997107.5-1082764.602921120.5-12130.056000950.6-120.8108.2:4:0.037494-360004-4108.5-1095.45%103.5-11269.58%108.75P10/9090%[9][39]P10/9050113.434.6810670%30%3123[40]51512345.15-15-1521253345-125-15126545.25.2.1()()12355456789[41]5.2.2123565.2.3123455.35.3.1571235.3.2112583212345635945.45.4.11602341235.4.212FIDIC6134562610%12[42]3632006.04.3064[1]..1995-2005[2].[].2003[3]T