我国房地产金融风险的研究

摘要摘要房地产业作为我国国民经济的支柱产业，近几年得到了快速发展。但在我国房地产市场快速发展的同时，也伴随着不少的问题出现。而且我国房地产市场的资金主要来自银行等金融机构，一旦房地产泡沫破灭，作为房地产业供给资金的昀主要和直接来源，银行将是金融风险的直接承受者。所以防范房地产金融风险，不仅是房地产业和房地产金融业稳定和发展的需要，对整个金融业和国民经济的稳定和发展也至关重要。本文以房地产金融为对象，试借鉴国内外对房地产金融风险的研究和实践经验，进行对我国房地产金融风险的研究，并提出了防范房地产金融风险的几点建议。首先，本文介绍了房地产金融风险的理论以及房地产泡沫与金融危机的关系，并以美国为例讨论了美国次级贷危机爆发的原因。在此基础上，针对房地产泡沫的四种表现形式进行了具体分析，讨论了我国房地产金融风险的来源，并对风险进行了分类。第三，着重从房地产企业的资产负债结构和个人住房抵押贷款的还贷能力两个方面分析了房地产金融的风险。昀后，提出了降低和防范房地产金融风险的对策与措施。关键词：房地产金融风险房地产开发贷款个人住房抵押贷款实证分析AbstractAbstractThereal-estateindustry,asthepillarindustryinourcountrynationaleconomy,hasafastdevelopmentinrecentyears.Butwiththefastdevelopmentofthereal-estatemarket,therearemanyproblemstoappear.China’sreal-estatemarket'sfundmainlycomesfromcommercialbank.Oncethereal-estate’bubblebreaking,thebankwillbethedirectreceiverofthefinancialrisk.Sokeepingawaythereal-estatefinancialriskisnotonlythedemandofthereal-estateindustryandthereal-estatefinanceindustry’sstabilityanddevelopment,butalsothedemandofthefinanceandthenationaleconomy’sstabilityanddevelopment.Thispapertakethereal-estatefinanceasanobject,usingtheabroadanddomestic’sexperienceandresearchonreal-estatefinancialrisk,tocarryonmyresearchonchina’sreal-estatefinancialrisk,andgivesomesuggestionaboutkeepingawaythereal-estatefinancialriskintheend.Firstly,thepaperintroducesthebasaltheoryonthereal-estatefinanceandtherelationbetweenthereal-estatebubbleandthefinancialcrisis,andtakingtheUnitedStatesasanexample,introducesthecrisisofthesecondarymortgageloans.Basedonthis,thepaperanalyzesthefouraspectsaboutthereal-estate’sbubble,discussesthesourceofchina’sreal-estatefinancialrisk,andcarriesonaclassificationtotherisk.Finally,fromtwoaspects——theassetsdebtstructureofthereal-estateenterprisesandtherepayabilityoftheresidentialmortgageloan’borrower,thepaperanalyzesthereal-estatefinancialrisk,andgivethesuggestionaboutkeepingawaythereal-estatefinancialrisk.Keywords:Real-EstateFinancialRiskReal-EstateExploitationLoansResidentialMortgageLoansEmpiricalApproach目录目录第一章绪论...................................................................................................................11.1研究的背景和意义..............................................................................................11.1.1研究背景....................................................................................................11.1.2研究目的和意义........................................................................................11.2研究的内容与框架..............................................................................................21.2.1研究内容....................................................................................................21.2.2研究框架....................................................................................................2第二章房地产金融风险的理论综述.............................................................................52.1房地产金融及其风险..........................................................................................52.1.1房地产金融................................................................................................52.1.2房地产业与金融业的关系........................................................................62.1.3房地产金融风险形成的理论解释............................................................62.2房地产泡沫与金融危机......................................................................................92.2.1房地产泡沫................................................................................................92.2.2房地产泡沫的破裂与金融危机..............................................................112.3美国次级贷危机发生的过程与原因................................................................132.3.1次级贷危机发生的过程与影响..............................................................132.3.2引发次级贷危机的原因..........................................................................142.3.3美国次级贷危机的传导方式..................................................................15第三章我国房地产金融风险的分析...........................................................................173.1房地产定价及影响因素的分析........................................................................173.1.1房价的估算..............................................................................................173.1.2房价的变动原因及效应..........................................................................203.2土地价格的形成及影响因素............................................................................223.2.1土地的自然供给与经济供给..................................................................223.2.2土地的自身需求和派生需求..................................................................243.2.3土地价格及其特点..................................................................................253.2.4房价与地价的关系..................................................................................263.3房屋空置率........................................................................................................263.4房地产开发投资................................................................................................273.4.1我国房地产土地开发的情况..................................................................273.4.2我国