1中国台湾海峡地区灾害风险评估减灾规划GeorgePar

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1!/#$%&'()*+,-./)01GeorgePararas-Carayannis2%3456789!:;%'(=?@#$%&'(ABCDEF%GHIJKLKMNOPQRST)*FUV=WX)*YZ'[\%3\#+\+]^_`abcd%\e:\fg_hi=jk#$blmJn5OPWXop)*Fqrcst%&uAFvw=xy/z{|)*FUV=}~'(€‚ƒ„…†‡ˆ‰9cR%&uA%'(Š‹‰9FŒŽgŽj(‘DE_’“…†”9†•F01=–—˜F}™š›œŠ‹ž=WŸ ¡/z)¢}Wo‰9€(‘FUVc/z£L)*¤¥FUV=”9o¦§¨F=©4ª«‘F01¬­=®¯°±²³´µD¶)*=·¸})*FUV¹º-.=»„¼²OP)*UVF'½¾¿=ÀÁ)*‰ÂD¥FÃÄ=ŽÅº£LÆ5€UVF¼²ÇÈ=ÉÊNOUV'(Ë'®ÌFÍÎÏÐ=ÑÒӄº/z)*UVÔÕÖ×FØÙ¬ÚcÛÜ}#$%&'(QRF'[\%3\#+\+]^jk`ab)*+,Š‹ÝÞß_-.càá=ÛÜâãäÝå恂çèéçFê_ëì=Ìj ¡R£LÑGíî'ïð)*¼²ñòF’óôõ_ö¤÷øcÑù=ÛÜúºÝӄØÙ)*Å1F¬ûFgü–~Å1Ÿýþÿ!_#%&uA—$R%)/)«‘=âYZR&'\ª(b©)ˆ*«‘+FÙ×=Šo,stuA'(Fvwc1.-.!:;%/01234=50K5o6F%A6†7180089=YZ6=500)%4=:ÞMNOPl;)*FUVc~'(xå8)%m=2)GIJ=©)!b_=HIJjko)S(=?’“@A5B=Cþ!?’“DF40E=ÀÅ£L’“âŸF‚jGHCą†cIJKgòF‰9ŒŽ£²}+,Š‹LÞ-.=MN¨}£L‡O)*PQFUVR=STRUV4M@#V4ƒ„笨nS­WXYsZ[FÖ\9]cIJFÞß^ºÝ}_`DaF-bãc=}_`D¥F'[\%3\#+_+]^b)*Š‹ÝdT=Ge™ºÝ(‘çjk#$%&'(I'%f)*FghcAÝij£LR/zQR)*¬¨kRFlë=ÛÜãäÝ%&mAFfgm'[n_#$'[nW2)joF'[nF'p_'½q=2)'[n+Frs_tuv#¼²wD‡xyzçF'[_%3)¢càá=ÛÜ-9.{Ý|LD¥F#+)*=£L¼²D¥PQFÇÈ=jk+]^¼²wDð}'nD¥`a)*F#V4~ÓcÑù=ÛÜ}Ö\_01N£L¼²¨}FoXÑG¼²D¥FPQŠ‹Ýij=–ãäÝӄž»FË'®Ì\èIFg€0¾\Ö\0¾9‚ÔF¬­=–úºÝ¼Ìƒ/z£L—y)*¤¥UV=„Š%&'(%IJ‚DEFëìc(…1).2Fig.1.!/#$%&'(2.!!;'(\%'(jk#$%&'(F'[†ñcj‡}!!;_%'('[†ñFãäúˆÝåæ#$%&'(‰\†•F'Š#V4ŠE‹ŒŽ=–úºÝ~'(D¥'[\%3jkˆ*æ)*F¼²çc2.1!F'[†ñ‘’¥“jJ=69@”•–G—˜™šÓ›!F'pœ#cT¸=Pݝ¥“!•=!F'pœ#žŸ69OP ¡¢_£î¢˜™¤+F¥×ÌFUV(Hellingeretal,1985)cR¦D¥ƒ!–_:–'[œ#®¯£î¢˜™§/rstu•–˜™¨©ª50«¬­cW;˜™Frs×Ì®žŸƒ@5500¯ªJ®°±Ý–²H›=¤¥Ý³´ÑGFzñµn¶·¸¹µº=jk»¼H›=ˆ¡n%½HîA16=000¾¿=@'ŠdÑHÑGFH›¨…2­c3Fig2.¶·¸¹µº_»¼H›F°±W;œÀFtuv#@‚še£î_m¼jkÁ)ÂÃ'(D¥G0Ä'[F›Åc”ƒ£î˜™‚§/Æ#=—˜ÇȖ²˜™‡O©7120089=®¯¶·¸¹d/;'(›ÉGFÊ˘Ìn¨strikeslipfaults­=ÍÎÏÐјÌn¨AltynTagh­=·Ò¨§:_:5¬§Æ#=§!!;Æ#=Šo,wÓrsv#_'Ôv#c՛tuF‚=DÖ89F'ԙ×1›!F:;_:5;Æ#c!G×F'[œ#ž@RŸ³Ø•(~50Ma)WÙFtuv#!ÚòFc(Yeetal.1985).…3.»¼H›'[D¥FÛÜ~ÓÉÝ(ZhengSihuaÞ,1992)…3ß໼H›'(jk§!:;_:5;DEF'[œ#FD¥ÛÜ~ÓcyÙ=ؕ'[†ñ‘F69qá@â)ãHG—RÁ)o¥ä!åæٖ(Zhangetal.,1984;HendrixandDavis,2001)ctu_Õ¤¸LFٖ_çEv#bKR!¤¥Ý64)69F†ñn=WX†ñn¼èéÞAâ)†ñê'(ë(Zhangetal.,1984;YinandNie,1996)cIJD¥ƒ!FG;Þ'[줥ƒG—˜™íîn=Wo'(âR‚D¥›o4X'pï‘c2008ª5ð12ñD¥FòóçFôõG'[ž@{|‚'pï‘FѝÍö(….4,5)(Pararas-Carayannis,2008d).…4.÷øµ˜ÌnFÚò….5.!!;˜Ìn_'[[!1900-2000.2.2!%'(\#$%&'('[†ñ‘c!F%'(_݉Fï‘=W@#$%&'(IJ'[†ñÚòF69›Åc£î®•–˜™Ftu†ñ_Gm¢˜™FùÍv#bnñòúûA_5%'(F'pü†ï‘_©)ýþ'[nFÚòc”ƒ’'!%FÿV×Ì=®¯¶RF!%'(!KÝâ)˜Ìn=WX'[n!¦¦D¥Z‰F'[)*=–ÀÅR£LâŸè#D¥'[(….6).5thecru…6.5%/;kÂÃ'(G—Ã$Fx%˜Ìnw&¨conjugatefaultsystems­F-j…(afterMaetal.,1998)?'=S'()*•jL=©+k©,-F†ñPQÚòÝ5%/;G—Ã$F.©ïFx%/0w&¨conjugateshearsystems­(Qiu&Zhou,?)cÎ12î#$%&%'(Fe3®fg%'[n”o)x%/0w&Rm/4m§:54:¬§Frs×̇Úò=ÚòR+—Cþ5MaªcW)'[nFm;·him560e:mcyÙ'=΅67à=W)'[n89:;›o)x%w&=ˆ+OP:m§rs×Ì=–kR©)9˜=£L¼²RWo'(D¥Z‰F'[)*cÍÎ=e3®fg'[nFkRž@~'(þ=GH'[D¥F69›Åc@=GH'[–—$$D¥ƒ~'[nF6'(c!:%A_#$'(D¥FGH'[?@Rþ=wD%3F69›Å=}#$%&%'(ᤥÝUVcT¸—@F@=IJ¼ÌF_`AB:Þåíc}_`dD¥F'[_%3jk£LQRF+,Š‹§¨-.FCo,éIgDR}_`EFGéHIFŒdc‡Ü$@}!%_#$%&'(þ=_`dJD¥F'[_%3)*F-9ãäc2.3#$F'[†ñ‘ÅAyRkR˜™ùÍ_˜™5K×Ì=#$%&:;'(F'[†ñï¯KLK‰c#$Lƒ•–G—˜™_MNO%†ñ˜™5KFôdcؕF†ñ˜™5K®¯•–˜™jo'§:ùÍ0MNO%˜™FPQ4R¤‡c@=Wo/Vv#՛R+ÆF‚§mÆ#=ÚòÝo)SeFÚï(‘=YZùÍ\tujk˜™Tøb=¸UVWXYF˜™Ã´(Pararas-Carayannis,1999).Å{=”ƒG—'Ôå›joFZV=[¢ÚòùÍ=†ñþ\–—\]^_AF`ٛboF˜™Ã´MùÍ(‘D¥c(….7)coT=RR®—tuF—y,-=eaÞ;F/0w&¯j—˜DEc(….8).IJ=MNO%˜™§/1›•–˜™‡OÆ#bcŠd4_PQ4R®e×wfýæ=6߶A˜™+FùÍ\5K_gh=oiF@PQ4jµ4Rb–²G—Ã$Ftuv#(Pararas-Carayannis,1999)ccŠd4RLƒkl:¨=#$:/¨=¸PQ4R×wœLƒkl:5¨_#$F5¨cu)jµ4RìyR§#$4¬§Æ#=W)†710089FSeFïÚn·#$4|%(‘Fm¨§:¨56cR#$%&:A='[†ñnŒÛm5/ʧc….7.MNO%˜™›cŠd4%e§/ùÍ0•–˜™FcŠd4R¤‡c….8.R-—tuc#$%&:A#$'(Fn‰tuvühc73.0!/#$%&'('[_%3F+,-.!/#$=%&uA'(F'[_%3+,Þߔ9}~'(F'[œ#jkjoD¥F7å)*DaŠ‹HIcj‡@}!:;%'(D¥FZ‰%3'[jk#$%&A'(D¥FUVщF'[F-9ãäc(…9).YspéFHI”9Š‹§¨F+,Þßc3.1!:;%_#$%&'(A'(_`dD¥F'[_%3c_`EFoà·8qJ1831ª08q1980ª+=!xD¥4=117#9r4.75sjd'[c·8qJ47ª08q1921ª+=.Åxå@15#'[R!:;%'(wDÝ%3(Pararas-Carayannis,2007,2008a,b,c).#$%&'(7D¥F'[Fào)h@G;Þ'[ìtƒu'[=Å{=;ÞD¥ƒ'ԘÌn6F'[ooå¼²wD%3c….9.!:;%_#$%&'(_`dD¥F%3'[F[!cˆ!=RÜv!EwFn#%3å¼²tƒ+]^c@=…9!FDaá¼²–—xÁ=bˆ*Üv!EFF_`PQákRÍÎcñò10000’M10000’jd’óyõF8Z‰%3Þ?D¥ƒ1045=1329=1458=1536=1776jk1782bª=@S­zPåæWX%3Fx×ABc—þ=æƒWXPQ_`DaFñ•á¼²kR;{cÍÎ=ABEw1046ªD¥ƒ|%F%3¼²b1045ªEFF%3@yo#)¢c|}'=~åAB¼oà1329=1458=1536=1776MN1782bªF%3D¥ƒ€cñ•¬¨F;{”9Šo,F‚=–á”9ž»'Ÿ!ƒ_h„òIJF…Ü_c|ªLD¥F%3)¢Dao¯†G¼‡=0ˆå3#}!:;%'(D¥F%3FpéEFcC1#@1969ª7ð18ñD¥ƒ|%F9r7.4s'[wÓF%3=a‰Š‹W#%3ñòÝû/mŒµ|%'(o„\îF÷ø(Pararas-Carayannis,2008a,2009)cC2#ƒ1992ª1ð1ñ02ñD¥ƒ%545O=ñòÝ;Þyz(Zhou&Adams,1986)cW#%3¯PÝLÞFŽÁbEFcÍÎ=‘’“^EFPF%3HîA0.78¬=¸n–lEFF%3HîA0.5P0.8¬cCn#%3ƒ1994ªD¥ƒ#$%&=@~åæ÷øF‰Šcj‡.{ÝoXYØXR”D¥F%3)¢c3.1.11604ª12ð9ñD¥F'[_%3#$%&'(ÑZ‰F%3'[D¥ƒ1604ª12ð29ñ¨…10­c•–Üv!—äF{#'[FÑHtî(Zhou&Adams,1986;Pararas-Carayannis,2007),W@o#G0Ä)¢çF'[)*=T}fgm_Á)#$%&'(ñòÝZ‰UV=ˆ[!Lƒ˜3|%'(=‡|%Fe3®fg'[nc}W#ؕ'[~åYsx×FAB¼ˆ‚™c@=ša_`EF=°±¼j›PW#'[ñòÝG¾¿FUV=YZêG'žÌë=êûœÆ#ëjkGžŸ ~bc[oT=’¡F—äßjW#%3FtîXj¢ žŸcW#%3¥ò(‘[¼²R9s_10stîF'[¼²£kF|%'(c….10.1604ª12ð29ñ'[tîcR10sMN9s'[(‘[¼²¤¥Ýo#%3(ž…-Nat.Bur.Seismology,1981).93.1.21668ª7ð25ñD¥F'[_%3W@o#%3'[=69UVݵ:m¤¥=¸—@fg(Zhou&Adams,1986;Pararas-Carayannis,2007).W#%3D¥ƒµ:m¤¥_¦I¤+F˜Ì(=§JWo(‘”ƒOP‚'Ô6EFr×̸—˜°±(…11)c”ƒr_%°±×Ì=W#'[wDÝo#ÉGF%3=¨þ+,Þß©²YªFsjEFc….11.1604ª12ð29ñ'[tîcR10s_11s'[(‘¼

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