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管理科学与工程专业适用TheToolsandMethodologiesofRiskAnalysis工程项目风险管理与保险双语课管理科学与工程专业适用ContentsofRiskAnalysis•Analysisofriskeventsevolution;•RiskEvaluationfor:Ⅰoccurringprobabilityofriskevents,Ⅱvariedpossibleriskconsequences,Ⅲandtheirconditionalprobabilitiesgivenoriginaleventoccurring.管理科学与工程专业适用Analysisofriskeventevolution•FaultTreeAnalysis(FTA,故障树)•EventTreeAnalysis（ETA，事件树）管理科学与工程专业适用Whatisafaulttree？Isaspecialkindofinvertedtreelogiccausalitydiagram,itUSESeventsymbols,transferoflogicgatesignsandsymbolstodescribeacause-and-effectrelationshipbetweenvariouseventsinthesystem.Logicgateinputoutputevents\because\,logicgateoutputistheinputevents\fruit\.管理科学与工程专业适用namesymbolCausalrelationshipWiththedoorInputalleventsoccuratthesametimehaveaoutputOrgateTheinputaslongasthereisaneventoccursthatisoutputTheforbiddendoorTheinputconditionaleventisoutputOrderthedoorInputalleventsoccurinfromlefttorightorderisoutputXorgateTheinputeventiswhenonlyoneeventintheoutput管理科学与工程专业适用symbolnamemeaningcircularBasicevent,thereareenoughrawdatarectangularBylogicgatesexpressedeventoffailureThediamondForreasonsunknownfailureeventsDoublediamondHaveanimpactonthefaulttree,needsfurtherstudythecauseofthefailureofunknowneventTheroomtypePossiblefailureeventsmaynotappeartriangleConnectionandthesymbols管理科学与工程专业适用Theprocedureoffaulttreeanalysis1.Befamiliarwiththesystem2.Investigateaccidents3.Determinethetopevent4.Determinethetargetvalue5.Reasonsforinvestigation6.Drawthefaulttree管理科学与工程专业适用Theprocedureoffaulttreeanalysis7.Analysis8.Theaccidentprobability9.Comparing10.Analysis管理科学与工程专业适用SupervisionofprojectfailureFromtheowner'sriskFromthecontractor'sriskFromtheriskofsupervisionX1X2X6X3X4X5X7X11X10X8X9ACase:Typicalrisk管理科学与工程专业适用X1:feasibilitystudyreportlackofseriousnessX2:macromanagement,investmentdeficiencyTheX3:blindintervention,deprivedoftherightsoftheengineeringconsultantX4:don'trespectcontract,norespectfortherightsandinterestsofthecontractorX5:projectpaymentdoesnotreachthedesignatedpositionorsettlementinatimelymannerFromtheowner'srisk管理科学与工程专业适用X6:contractorbiddingnothonestBiddersX7:lackofbusinessethicsTheunder-fundedbyX8:contractorsX9:contractorqualityistoolowFromthecontractor'srisk管理科学与工程专业适用管理科学与工程专业适用EventtreeanalysiscaseThewatersystemoftheaccidenteventtreeanalysis管理科学与工程专业适用ProbabilityMethods•Usingtheexistingdataanalysisriskeventprobabilitydistribution•Theoryofprobabilitydistributionisusedtodeterminetheprobabilityofriskevents•Theprobabilityofriskeventsusingsubjectiveprobabilityanalysis•Analogyisusedtoderivetheprobabilityofriskevents管理科学与工程专业适用Usingtheexistingdataanalysisriskeventprobabilitydistribution•Case:theemergenceofconstructionperioddelayriskprobabilitycalculation•Aconstructioncompanyinthepasttocomplete72constructionprojects,duetovariousreasons,somepartoftheprojecthasdelayedtimelimitforaproject.Draggedprojecttimelimitforaproject,arrangethemgetsituationasshowninthetable.Thetimelimitforaprojectinthetablearetherelativevalueofdelaytime;Thenumberoffrequencyfortheproject.管理科学与工程专业适用TheconstructionperioddelaydatastatisticsDatapacketinterval（%）Inthegroupvalues（%）frequencyfrequency（%）Thecumulativefrequency（%）-34~-30-32.500.00.00-29~-25-27.522.782.78-24~-20-22.511.394.17-19~-15-17.534.178.34-14~-10-12.579.7218.06-9~-5-7.51013.8931.95-4~0-2.51520.8352.781~52.51216.6769.456~107.5912.5081.9511~1512.5811.1193.0616~2017.545.5698.6221~2522.500.0098.6226~3027.511.39100.0131~3532.500.00100.01管理科学与工程专业适用Timelimitforaprojectdelaydistributionexperience-30-25-20-15-10-5051015202530%Frequency(probability)0.2083管理科学与工程专业适用Estimatetheconstructionperioddelayeventprobability•Forexample,acompanyplannedconstructionperiodof16months,ifyouwanttoknowtheprobabilityofconstructionperioddelay3months,shallbecalculatedonthefollowingsteps：①3/16×100%=18.8%②Fromthetableorfigurecanchecktheconstructionperioddelayistheprobabilitythat3months5.56%。管理科学与工程专业适用Theoryofprobabilitydistributionisusedtodeterminetheprobabilityofriskevents•Casestudy:•Qualitydataarevolatile,thefactoriscausedbymanyfactors,andundertheconditionofnormalproduction,theroleofeachfactorisnotobvious,andthereisnoonefactorplaysaleadingrole.Sothefluctuations•Normaldistribution.•Intheconstructionofwaterconservancyprojects,manyhydrologyworkersstudyofriverfloodpeakflowofrandomness,foundthatmostoftheriversobeyed•P-Ⅲtypedistribution.管理科学与工程专业适用Theprobabilityofriskeventsusingsubjectiveprobabilityanalysis•Casestudy:•Aprojectisdividedintofivestandard,itemizedbid,abidderintendstoparticipateinoneofthebid,assumethatabidderthewinningprobabilityisdifferentforeachtarget,namelynotthebiddingriskisdifferent.Bidderspleasefourexpertofbiddingriskanalysis,evaluationforwhichstandardcanbidmore,lessriskyormissthemark.•Expertsontheriskofnotwinningfromsmalltolarge,theresultofthedischargesequenceasshownintabletenderingdecisionmakersfortheexperts'trustdegreebycoefficienta,were0.25,0.28,0.22,0.25,andfourNumbersand1.管理科学与工程专业适用Expertstotheevaluationorderofdifferentprojects专家名次12345aAⅠⅢⅤⅡⅣ0.25BⅢⅡⅠⅤⅣ0.28CⅡⅠⅢⅣⅤ0.22DⅢⅡⅤⅠⅣ0.25Ⅰ：1×0.25+2×0.22+3×0.28+4×0.25=2.53Ⅱ：1×