FSA在船舶引航风险评估中的应用

273Vol.27.320066JournalofHarbinEngineeringUniversityJun.2006FSA,(,200135):,FSA,.,.,,.,,.:(FSA);;;:U698:A:100627043(2006)0320329206Applicationofformalsafetyassessmenttotheriskassessmentoftheship2pilotageFANGQuan2gen,HUShen2ping(CollegeofMerchantMarine,ShanghaiMaritimeUniversity,Shanghai200135,China)Abstract:Risksassociatedwithship2pilotageinarestrictedwaterareawereanalyzedaccordingtomethod2ologyofaformalsafetyassessment(FSA)andanewresearchmethodwasdevelopedtoensuresafeshipoperation.Afterclarifyingthefundamentalriskfactorsofship2pilotageaccidentsinShanghaiHarbor,cri2teriawereestablishedforfrequency/severityandriskmatrix/riskdivisioninassessmentsofthiskindofrisks.Riskassessmentmodelswerealsoputforwardafteranalyzingthecompositionoftheship2pilotageoperationsystemandrelatedhazardsourcesandtheirinfluences.Thecausesofship2pilotageaccidentsaredescribedandresultsarepresentedofriskquantitativeassessmentsinrelationtovariousinfluentfactorsbyusingtheriskassessmentmodels.Keywords:formalsafetyassessment(FSA);riskassessment;ship2pilotage;humanfactor:2005209205:(05FZ26);(T0603).:(1950-),,,E2mail:[e-mail].,,.,.,2090,IMO(MSC),(formalsafetyas2sessment,FSA,),.,,.,,,.FSA,FSA.1(FSA)FSA.,5[1].,,,,.5,.,,,,,[2].,FSA.,,.,,.,(),FSA,,[3-5].2,2004,FSA,FSA,.19952003,,FSA,[2].FSA,.,FSA.2.1,.,FCQ.(1):F=CiQi.(1)FSA,.,1.1Table1FrequencyprobabilitycriteriatableforshipnavigationFF4F3F2F10.001(0.1%)0.0001(0.01%)0.00001(0.001%)0.000001(0.0001%),,..,.,,.,,.,,,30[3].,NSC.(2).03327N=SiCi.(2)FSA,.,2.,,.1,1,S=1+1/3=1133.2Table2SeveritycriteriaforshipnavigationSS7S6S5S4S3S2S11001010.11;300.1;30.1;3.2.2,,:1);2).,:R,R=f(F,N)=CiQiSiCi=SiQi(3),.2.,,.F1S7(R8)F2S7(R9)F3S7(R10)F4S7(R11)F1S6(R7)F2S6(R8)F3S6(R9)F4S6(R10)F1S5(R6)F2S5(R7)F3S5(R8)F4S5(R9)F1S4(R5)F2S4(R6)F3S4(R7)F4S4(R8)F1S3(R4)F2S3(R5)F3S3(R6)F4S3(R7)F1S2(R3)F2S2(R4)F3S2(R5)F4S2(R6)F1S1(R2)F2S1(R3)F3S1(R4)F4S1(R5)1Fig.1Rankingofriskforshipnavigation,FSA[7-8]..2:.1,(F)(S)(),(R).,(ALARP)3[9-10].1,(R9R11),(R5R8),(R2R4).2.3,,0.09%(F3).,3.5(S4),1333,:FSAR7[6].,[2].,:1),:,,,.,.2),:.,,34h,,,3.3),:,.,,,,.,,,101-10737.7%;107-114,20%;101-107114--107-114;91.2%(,).33.1[4]..:,,,2.2Fig.2Ship2pilotagesafetysystem...,:1);2).,:..,.,,/8.3.2,.,,.,,:R=f(I1I2In)=f(F,N).(4):I1I2In.(3),,.:CiQi,SiCi,(3).233273Table3RankingandconstructingofrisksbasedoncausedfactorsinharborpilotagesafetyinShanghai/F3S3(R6)F3S4(R7)F2S4(R6)F2S5(R7)F3S4(R7)F3S3(R6)F1S2(R3)F2S3(R5)F3S3(R6)F3S1(R4)F3S2(R5)F2S1(R3)F2S1(R3)F2S1(R3)F2S1(R3)F1S3(R4)F2S1(R3)F3S2(R5)F1S1(R2)F1S1(R2)F1S1(R2)F1S1(R2)F2S3(R5)F2S3(R5)F1S1(R2)F2S3(R5)F1S1(R2)F1S3(R4)F2S2(R4)F3S3(R6)F2S1(R3)F2S3(R5)F2S1(R3)F2S3(R5)F2S1(R3)F1S3(R4)F2S1(R3)F3S2(R5)F2S1(R3)F2S2(R4)F1S1(R2)F1S1(R2)F2S1(R3)F1S1(R2)F2S1(R3)F2S1(R3)F2S1(R3)F1S1(R2)F2S1(R3)F2S1(R3)F1S1(R2)F1S2(R3)F2S1(R3)F2S1(R3)F2S1(R3)F2S1(R3)F1S1(R2)F2S1(R3)F1S1(R2)F1S1(R2)F2S1(R3)F2S1(R3)F1S1(R2)F1S1(R2)F1S1(R2)F1S1(R2)F1S2(R3)F1S1(R2)F3S4(R7)F3S3(R6)F3S3(R6)F3S3(R6)F3S3(R6)F3S3(R6)F3S3(R6)F2S2(R4)F4S3(R7),FSA19952003.(4)(3),19952003,3.:1),,,,,/,,..2)(R6),,,,,,.3)(R5),,,.4)(R5),,/,;5)(R4),,,,/.:1),.2),;3),,,,,,;,,,;4)/,,.4FSA..,,FSA.1995,.,3333,:FSA/.FSA.:[1]WANGJin.Abriefreviewofmarineandoffshoresafetyassessment[J].MarineTechnology,SNAME,2002,24(2),77-85[2]InternationalMaritimeOrigination(IMO).Interimguidelinesfortheapplicationofformalsafetyassessment(FSA)totheIMOrule2makingprocess[A].MSC/Circ.829,MEPC/Circ.335[C],London,UK,1997.[3]InternationalMaritimeOrigination(IMO).Formalsafe2tyassessmentdecisionparametersincludingriskaccept2ancecriteria[A],MSC72/16[C],London,UK,2000.[4],.(FSA)[J].,2005(1):1-5.CHENZhenhua,FANGQuangen.StudyonapplicationofFSAtosafetypilotageinShanghaiHarbour[J].Navi2gationofChina(JournaloftheChinaInstituteofNaviga2tion),2005,(1):1-5.[5],WANGJin,DATUBOA.(FSA)[J].,2004(1):1-7.FANGQuangen,WANGJin,DATUBOA.FSAanditsapplicationstothesafetyofships[J].NavigationofChi2na(JournaloftheChinaInstituteofNavigation),2004(1):1-7.[6],,.[J].,2005(2):18-23.HUShenping,FANGQuangen,XIAHaibo.Studyonformalsafetyassessmentinshipnavigationandmodelingbasedonrelativerisk[J].JournalofDalianMaritimeU2niversity,2005(2):18-23.[7].[J].,2005(2):9-13.FANGQuangen.Formalsafetyassessmentforpreven2tingshipaccidentsandapplicationofnavigationsimula2tors[J].JournalofShanghaiMaritimeUniversity,2005(2):9-13.[8],,.[J].,2002(5):564-569.GUOChangjie,ZHANGDaokun,LIJianjun.Applica2tionofFSAtoloading/dischargingcourseofship[J].JournalofDalianUniversityofTechnology,2002(5):564-569.[9]PEACHEYJ.Overviewofthe5stepsofformalsafetyassessment[A].FormalSafetyAssessmentSeminar,IMOMSA[C].London,UK,1995.[10]InternationalMaritimeOrigination(IMO).Safetyofbulkcarriersbasisoftheinternationalcollaborativeformalsafetyassessmentstudy[A].MSC72/INF.18[C].London,UK,2000.[11]WANGJin,SIIHS,YANGJB,etal.Useofad2vancedintechnologyinmarineriskassessment[J].RiskAnalysis,2004,24(4):1011-1033.43327